Dwayne Bryant | NFL Side Mon, 12/14/09 - 8:35 PM

dime bet 134 SFX 4.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 133 ARI
Analysis:
This game looks easy at first glance. We have the defending NFC Champion Cardinals laying a small number in a revenge spot against a division rival. It looks even easier when you consider each team's last game. Arizona is coming off a nationally televised 30-17 win over the previously 10-1 Vikings. They held Adrian Peterson to just 19 yards on 13 carries. The 49ers are coming off a 20-17 loss at hapless Seattle. So taking all that into consideration, it's no wonder that 64% of the bets have been on Arizona at the time of this writing. But I see this game a little differently.

Arizona owns a 3-game lead in the NFC West and they're coming off a huge win over the Vikings. Sure, they could clinch the NFC West with a win tonight, but just how motivated do you think they'll be coming off that big win and with a 3-game division lead? This game means much more to the 49ers, who basically have to win out just to have any chance at making the playoffs. The 49ers already proved they can beat Arizona, as they did just that in Week 1 at Arizona, 20-16. The 49ers were outgained in that contest, 299-203. The 49ers have a much better passing game now with QB Alex Smith playing very well (Shaun Hill played in the Week 1 meeting) and TE Vernon Davis and rookie WR Michael Crabtree having emerged as go-to receivers.

The 49ers are a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. They're also 6-2-1 ATS as hosts under coach Mike Singletary. Finally, the 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games off a SU favorite loss, and 5-0-1 ATS off a loss against .500 or greater opponents under Mike Singletary. On the flip side, it should be noted that Arizona is 0-12 ATS as division favorites vs. an opponent off a SU favorite loss. They are also 0-4 ATS laying points on Monday night.

There is also a system supporting this play, that says to play ON home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two poor rushing teams (70 to 95 rushing yards per game), after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. This system is an incredible 22-4 ATS, which is 85% winners.

Bottom line: The Cardinals have been known to play down to the level of their competition, and motivation could be low coming off a big win over Minnesota and with a 3-game division lead with only four games left. Motivation will definitely not be a problem for the 49ers, who not only have a great motivator in head coach Singletary, but they're also getting the rare chance to play at home on Monday night. I think the 49ers win this game straight up, and I don't seˆe Arizona winning by more than a field goal. I released this pick late because I knew we'd be able to get at least +4 with the public continuing to back Arizona as the day wore on. Take the points with San Francisco.