Al Demarco 12/14
20 Dime - Arizona
As you know, I went against San Francisco last Sunday, backing Seattle as a one-point home dog against the Niners, picking up an additional 15 dimes for our bankroll when the Seahawks kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired to escape with the 20-17 triumph. But truth be told, I was lucky to get the win because San Fran outplayed the 'Hawks from start to finish, outgaining them in total yards 356-292, but repeated redzone failures and turnovers resulted in missed scoring opportunities that ultimately cost the Niners the game. The irony is that was only the second time in an eight-game stretch where San Francisco had outgained its opponent.
While the Niners were losing again on the road, Arizona was scoring its most impressive victory of the season in a 30-17 upset of visiting Minnesota as Kurt Warner completed 22-of-32 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns. In his last 14 quarters of action, Warner has hit 72% of his passes for 1089 yards and 12 TDs with zero interceptions.
Even more impressive than Warner's outing was the performance of the Cardinal defense as it stuffed Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, holding him to a season-low 19 yards on 13 carries. It also picked off Favre twice and sacked him three times.
This is a revenge game for Arizona as it was upset 20-16 as a 5 1/2-point home chalk in the season-opener for both teams. The Cardinals fell behind by 10 early, rebounded to take a 16-13 lead early in the fourth quarter, but watched Shaun Hill direct a 15-play, 80-yard scoring drive with 7 1/2 minutes to play for the game-winning score. Ironically, the Niners went three-and-out in their other five second-half possessions in that contest.
Arizona basically shot itself in its collective foot in the first go-round, committing 12 penalties for 82 yards while offering spotty pass protection for Warner, who was sacked three times and intercepted twice. While the Cardinals have since rebounded and soared as the season progressed, the Niners are a different team that's taking the field in today's rematch. Shaun Hill is out at quarterback; Alex Smith is in. And the Niners are no longer a running team as they've switched to a spread attack rather than rely just on Frank Gore (22 carries, 30 yards in first meeting) to move the chains.
The Cards have been a great play on the road this year - when Warner has been healthy. In those games, they're 4-0 SU and ATS. At St. Louis, they were up big but once Warner left with an injury they held on for the win but failed to cover. At Tennessee, where Warner was sidelined by a concussion, they lost outright. Still, they're on runs of 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS entering this game in a series where the road team has reeled off 10 straight covers.
You know as well as I that the Niners have been a strong dog play under Mike Singletary, but that is generally with them getting more points than what they're getting tonight. And considering how this team has struggled to get into the redzone of late (10 points at home vs. Chicago, 17 at Seattle) - and how well the Arizona defense has played in recent weeks - I think this is a bargain price to be laying with the Cardinals, who are playing with extreme confidence after knocking off the Vikings last week and have excelled all season on the road when Warner has been healthy.
In terms of Monday night trends, the favorite has taken the cash four of the past five weeks, and road teams are on a 5-3 ATS run. On the other hand, many will point out that San Francisco sports one of the best Monday night home pointspread records around at 19-8-3, but I note that most of those victories came with guys named Montana and Young at quarterback, not Smith. And those Niner teams knew how to exploit redzone opportunities while this year's edition does not.
Don't expect a high-scoring game here, but a solid win by the Cardinals, who do just enough to escape with a 24-17 win in revenge.
Strategy Note:
The price of this game has held steady at 3 1/2 all week long as I release it around 6:00 P.M. Eastern Sunday night. Naturally I want you to buy down the 1/2 point on Arizona - even if the line goes to -4 or -4 1/2.
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