For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the home dog:
The Spurs have struggled offensively on the road, scoring 95 points or fewer four times and I expect them to have a "letdown" tonight, coming off a convincing and satisfying victory over Charlotte on Friday.
Keep in mind the Spurs are just 1-4-1 ATS their last six overall and just 1-7 ATS their last eight on the road.
On the other side of the court: Los Angeles continues its six-game homestand after splitting the first four. The Clippers, averaging 89.3 points over those four contests, lost 97-86 to Orlando on Tuesday; I expect a concerted effort on both sides of the ball tonight though as they look to rebound from that sub-par performance.
Despite the defeat on Tuesday, Los Angeles still has won five of eight. During that stretch, the Clippers are yielding 90.9 points and forcing 16.4 turnovers per game.
Also remember, the Clippers always play tough in front of the hometown crowd, especially lately; LA is 4-2 SU its last six in friendly confines.
Bottom line: LA has lost 12 in a row to San Antonio, so will also have the "revenge" factor on its side; look for the CLIPPERS to move to 3-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record and for the Spurs to fall to 1-3 ATS after allowing 85 points or less in their previous contest.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | NFL Side Sun, 12/13/09 - 1:00 PM
triple-dime bet 115 NOS -10 vs 116 ATL Analysis: We were on the Saints when they crushed the Patriots on MNF, and then went against them last week as the Red Skins almost pulled off the outright upset, but easily covered with the large spread they were being afforded.
This week however, I expect Drew Brees and company, to "bounce back" from that near diˆsastrous performance with a big effort inside the Georgia Dome as I expect this team to continue to play with a chip on its shoulder and push down the stretch, determined to end its season strong, and garner more offensive records and the accolades they feel they deserve.
New Orleans clinched the division title and tied a franchise record for wins in a season with a wild comeback last week, beating Washington 33-30 in overtime; remember, the Saints also rallied from a 21-point deficit to beat Miami 46-34 in Week 7.
The Saints overcame four turnovers to beat Atlanta 35-27 on Nov. 2. Brees was intercepted and lost a fumble, but passed for 308 yards and two scores; expect Brees to be conscience of that fact and to protect the ball more this time around from an opportunistic Falcons defense.
New Orleans is very tough on the road; obviously other than being perfect, it's also 5-2 ATS its last seven away from friendly confines. The Saints always play the Falcons tough as well and also have history on their side; New Orleans is 6-1 SU its last seven vs. Atlanta.
On the other side of the field: Without Michael Turner, Atlanta was held to 61 yards rushing in a 34-7 loss to Philadelphia last Sunday. Turner was one of six offensive starters, including QB Matt Ryan, to miss time in that matchup as the Falcons lost for the third time in four games.
Ryan, injured in a 20-17 win over Tampa Bay on Nov. 29, sat out a sixth consecutive practice Friday and is listed as questionable on the team’s injury report.
To make matters worse for the Falcons; starting right cornerback Chris Houston, arguably the best corner on the 29th-ranked pass defense, has been ruled out of Sunday's game with a hamstring injury.
Remember, Atlanta is just 2-5 SU its last seven and always struggles against New Orleans; 2-4 ATS its last six in the Georgia Dome vs. the Saints.
Bottom line: Look for the Saints offense to get out to a quick start and then watch the defense shut the door down the stretch; expect NEW ORLEANS to improve to 9-4 ATS this season when playing the roll of favorite and for Atlanta to fall to 1-2 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent!
Nick Parsons 12/13
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