1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #101 Pittsburgh (-3) over Cleveland (8 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 10) AND Take #115 New Orleans (-3) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
7-Unit Play. Take #105 Denver (+7) over Indianapolis (1 p .m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
Note: This is my NFL Game of the Year.
Last week it seemed as if everyone and their sister was jumping on Tennessee to keep it rolling against the Colts. Unfortunately for the general betting public the Colts came to play and laid it on the Titans. Well, now it seems as if people are just getting right away from the Colts when I think this is a good time to go against them. The Colts have not been great in their new stadium this year. They are just 2-4 ATS in their new digs, and if you kick out their blowout of lowly Seattle the Colts' average margin of victory at home this year is just 4.0 points per game. Indy’s average victory this year in all games is 10.8 points per game. However, over the first six weeks of the season it was an average win of 17 points per game. Over the last six weeks? Their average win is less than 5.0 points per game. They may e losing some steam and we're seeing across the league that games are just getting tighter, with less scoring and more teams fighting for critical wins. Here we have the Colts coming off a rare “blowout” where they won by 10 points, double their recent average. I am saying that they shouldn't duplicate it this week. And if you look through the Colts’ schedule they 1) haven’t played a lot of good teams (only three of their 12 wins – New England, Jacksonville, Arizona – have come against teams that currently have a winning record) and 2) they haven’t beaten good teams by many points. The average win against teams currently at 5-7 or better, discounting the first Tennessee game (they were 0-4 at the time and clearly not the same team), is just 6.88 points per game. But that number is skewed by a 21-point win at Arizona in Week 3 and only two of the eight wins was by more than 8 points.
Denver is a quality football team. And now that Kyle Orton is back to full strength this team is making a strong push. Denver has played and beaten good teams (Dallas, New England, San Diego, Cincinnati) and they have won on the road (at Cincy, at San Diego) against quality opponents. And I think that they can win here. The Colts are just 7-13 in their last four games of the regular season over the last five years (and that is after a 3-1 mark in the L4 last year). And as the pressure of an undefeated season starts to set in the spreads start to go up and performance starts to go down as the pressure mounts. You can make a strong argument that Indy should be 1-3 over its last four games. They were down 17-0 at Houston before the Texans fell apart and gave that game up. They were down big to New England when the Pats collapsed in the last two minutes. And Baltimore outplayed the Colts but couldn't get the ball in the end zone. I think that Denver will do what those teams couldn't and beat Indy. I think Denver can pound the ball on the ground and that they have excellent weapons in the passing game. And one of the keys to beating the Cover-2 is being able to be efficient and effective in the red zone. And even though Denver has not been effective down there all year I still think that they have the playmakers necessary to get it done inside the 20. This game reminds me a lot of when San Francisco came to Indianapolis. They were physical, they ran the ball, and they hung around before falling late. The same thing happened when Indy played Jacksonville and Miami. I think Denver can run the ball as effectively, keep the scoring low and close, and pull one out late here. We'll take the points and hope that this game comes down to a late field goal one way or another.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #112 Kansas City (Pk) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #119 Miami (+3) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #124 Houston (-6) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #130 Dallas (-3) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #108 Minnesota (-7) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #132 N.Y. Giants (-1) over Philadelphia (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
This week's totals:
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.0 Miami at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 48.5 San Diego at Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 43.5 Cincinnati at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 50.0 New Orleans at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 37.0 N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.0 Denver at Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 44.5 Seattle at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.0 Carolina at New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
Monday Night Football Selection 2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Arizona at San Francisco (8:30 p.m., Monday, Dec. 14)
Anybody know when Ferringo Releases his NFL?
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