[LLXC]

****BEST BET
*New England over Carolina by 31
It’s not a vintage Bill Belichick-Patriots team. That we know. But off two straight road losses, the Patriots return home angry and ready to pour it on. The timing is right for them as Carolina comes a calling.The Patriots are still light years of John Fox’s ruined crew.The Panthers are averaging 13 points in their last three games. They were fortunate to beat one-win Tampa Bay last week at home getting out-gained 469-309 yards.Tom Brady still is Tom Brady. He has a healthy Randy Moss and Wes Welker.The Panthers have no attack.Their best runner, DeAngelo Williams, didn’t play last week because of an injured ankle.Wide receiver Steve Smith is their only other playmak- er. He’s been rendered almost useless, though, because of Carolina’s quar- terback situation. Jake Delhomme probably remains out. Matt Moore is the new starter.That’s one of the poorest quarterback tandems in the league. Belichick will have no problem matching wits against either one. Delhomme is a turnover waiting to happen, while Moore is inexperienced and isn’t very good. If he were, he would have replaced Delhomme long before Delhomme suffered a finger injury. Keep in mind, too, that Carolina is without its best offensive lineman, left tackle Jordan Gross. New England has uncharacteristically struggled on the road. However, the Patriots have won their last five home contests by an average of 21.6 points.They are 43- 17-2 (71 percent) ATS as home chalk when meeting a non-division oppo- nent. Just one game ahead of the Jets and Dolphins in the AFC East, the Patriots and Belichick are not going to look past this matchup.The Panthers lack the capacity with their conservative ground-oriented offense to trade points with New England or get a back-door cover. NEW ENGLAND 38-7.

***BEST BET
*Dallas over San Diego by 20
Simply put, December has not been the best of months for the Cowboys. They are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games during December. Dallas is aver- aging 14.8 points in their last eight December games. San Diego, on the other hand, has won 15 straight December games.The Chargers are 8-2 ATS during their last 10 games played in December.Yet our play is to Dallas for the following reasons:The Cowboys are home in their new billion-dollar stadium,Tony Romo is hot and the Cowboys defense has gotten consider- ably better since the beginning of the season. Peyton Manning, Brett Favre and Drew Brees have been drawing all the quarterback attention.Yet qui- etly Romo has put up a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last seven games. He has been playing as well any quarterback. The Chargers could be missing three of their key defensive players as nose guard Luis Castillo, linebacker Shawne Merriman and safety Eric Weddle all missed last week’s non-cover victory against the Browns.The Chargers rank among the bottom teams in rushing.They rely on the passing talents of Philip Rivers. But the Cowboys have surrendered more than 17 points just once in their last six games. Dallas is allowing only 15.9 points per game during their last 10 games.The Cowboys have 29 sacks since Week 2. Dallas has the better balance. San Diego is not only below average running the ball, but mediocre in stopping the run.The game also means far more to Dallas.The Cowboys are in a dogfight for a playoff spot. San Diego is leading its AFC West Division and tied with Cincinnati for the second-best overall mark in the conference.This is just the second time this season the Chargers will be on artificial turf. DALLAS 34-14.

**PREFERRED
Buffalo over *Kansas City by 9
This matchup really is bad on bad. But at least Buffalo tries and has some talent.The Chiefs are simply dreadful. Kansas City ranks among the bottom in total defense yielding nearly 400 yards per game.Terrell Owens hasn’t done much this year. He’s clearly on the downside of his career. But against inexperienced corners he still can come up big. He did this during Weeks 11 and 12 with a combined 14 receptions for 293 yards and two touch- downs against the Jaguars and Dolphins. The Chiefs’ secondary is worse. The Bills actually put up 54 points on the Chiefs last year. Buffalo has the better running game with Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson plus the two best wideouts with Owens and Lee Evans as Dwayne Bowe remains under suspension for the Chiefs. Matt Cassel has been a bust for the Chiefs. It wouldn’t be shocking if Chiefs first-year coach Todd Haley benched him. Haley hasn’t been real popular with his players. The Bills, on the other hand, have played hard for interim coach Perry Fewell.The players seem to want him as their head coach for next season. Buffalo has had three extra days to rest and prepare, which is huge during this late time of year. The Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS in the past three years when laying points. BUFFALO 29-20.

**PREFERRED
*Oakland over Washington by 9
Do we dare take a shot with the Raiders? The spot works.The Redskins are 3-9 with an injury-riddled locker room having lost nine starters from open- ing week, including their top two running backs and star tight end Chris Cooley. Not only does Washington have no shot at the post-season, but also no chance of even finishing .500. Now the Redskins have to make a long journey to the West Coast following a home overtime loss to the undefeat- ed Saints in a game they should have won. It’s safe to point out that the Redskins aren’t going to be real excited about this trip and game. Neither team scores much. Oakland has been held to 10 points or less six times. The Redskins have only broken the 17-point barrier in three of their past 11 games.The Raiders, though, are home and their spirits are high after a shocking road upset victory against the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers.The last time the Raiders were home, they upset Cincinnati. Bruce Gradkowski is a journeyman quarterback, but he’s given the Raiders a lit- tle spark in a Rocky sort of way. He’s certainly an upgrade on JaMarcus Russell. The Redskins are 2-1-1 ATS in division playing opponents they know. Outside of the NFC East, though, they are 3-5 ATS. OAKLAND 23-14.

[LLXC]

***BEST BET
*Oklahoma City over Cleveland by 6
The Cavaliers will be playing for the fourth time in six days. The Thunder’s young guns – Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook – welcome a home challenge from LeBron James. The Thunder was 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games as a home underdog. They also were 11-4 ATS at home versus teams with a winning road mark and 20-9-1 ATS against Eastern Conference foes. OKLAHOMA CITY 98-92.