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Bills (+1) over @Chiefs Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
I tend to like writing up games I want to see. It’s just easier. The game's storyline should flow easily. You get something interesting to chew on and maybe learn something you didn't know before. And hopefully get a money winner in the bargain. This, dear reader, is not one of those games.
About the only thing interesting in this matchup is the coaching change in Buffalo. Dick Jauron got the ziggy a couple of weeks ago and defensive coordinator Perry Fewell was given the reins. When Jauron fired his offensive coordinator shortly before the season started you had to know he was in big trouble. But I sure didn't think he'd circle the drain before Raheem Morris in Tampa Bay. Morris fired his OC in the preseason too, and the Bucs have been outscored by 143 points in a weaker division. The Bills have a pretty good defense even though they have suffered from a slew of injuries. Yet things actually seem to be looking up for the 1-11 Bucs because they may have found a QB for the future in Josh Freeman.
Off a 19-13 shellacking to the Jets in Toronto, the Bills are favored by a 141-76 ATS bounceback situation that has been in my database for as long as any system I have. It’s been profitable for a long time, though it does weaken a bit in the final month of the season. In fact, "bounceback" is the theme consistent with the other two systems I have in Buffalo's favor. The other two situations are 180-109 ATS and 202-103 ATS. Usually I discount such overlap, but this is a little different. The first system I mentioned is triggered by who they lost to - the Jets. The second is activated because of how they lost - giving up 249 yards on the ground. And the final bounceback system is triggered by who they are playing this week.
And then there is the tech stuff involving the Chiefs. First up are a pair of "bad defensive homer" systems. These are 64-124 ATS and 138-205 ATS. There is a lot of overlap in these two. Better are a pair of statistical indicators. These are 77-136 ATS and 139-234 ATS. There is some overlap here, though not as much as the first pair.
Now there is a caveat to this writeup. If betting action during the week happened to move the Bills into the category of a favorite much of the tech analysis would become invalid. Not all of it though. The 139-224 play in particular would not be affected, and this is good: it has by far the best performance out of sample of the entire group of seven tech spots I've described here. In fact that play is good enough that even if the line flipped I'd still probably lean Buffalo's way no matter what new material would pop up. I'll take the Bills. Buffalo by 6.

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@Patriots (- 131⁄2) over Panthers Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
The Patriots were in a tough scheduling spot last week. After their big Monday night showdown in New Orleans, the Patriots then had to play another road game in Miami on a short week. And they were also up against the weather as they had to play in the heat and humidity of South Florida for the first time this season. Fatigue was an issue for this team in the second half as they failed to score a single point in the fourth quarter and they were actually out-scored 22-7 after jumping out to a 14-0 lead. Tom Brady was also dealing with a finger injury on his throwing hand that affected his accuracy as he completed just 65.5% (19-29) of his passes while throwing two interceptions. And one of those was huge as it came inside the 5-yard line when the Patriots could have gone up by two scores early in the fourth quarter. So there was a lot going against the Patriots last week which makes their loss somewhat excusable.
Things will be a lot easier for them this week as they get the perfect opponent to beat up on. Carolina is an atrocious football team that has little chance of staying close in this game. The Panthers have five wins, and two of those wins came against one-win Tampa Bay. And their win over the Bucs last week was as ugly as they come. Matt Moore got the start at quarterback for Jake Delhomme, and Moore actually played okay on the surface going 14-20 for 161 yards. But he had no touchdown passes and threw an interception, and when you consider he was facing a terrible Tampa Bay defense then his performance isn’t really as good as it looks. The Panthers were out-yarded 469-309 while Tampa had 22 first downs to Carolina’s 15. Bucs’ rookie quarterback Josh Freeman threw for 321 yards, but his five interceptions (3 inside or close to the red zone) cost his team a win. And it gave Carolina one of the phoniest wins of the season.
There’s one thing for sure in this game, the Patriots will bring their best after back-to-back losses. They haven’t lost two straight games since 2006, and in their following game they shutout the Packers in Lambeau 35-0. New England has played very good football at home; they are a perfect 6-0 straight-up and 4-2 against the spread. They’ve scored 25 points or more in every one of those games while winning four of them by double digits. Carolina does have a very good running game, but DeAngelo Williams did not play last week because on an ankle injury. But even if he comes back here, it’s not going to matter because the Patriots will jump on the Panthers from the get-go and have them playing from behind all game long. This game is a complete mismatch and the Patriots win this one going away. Patriots by 20.

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Redskins (-1) over @Raiders Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
You’ve got to hand it to the Redskins. They were left for dead a few weeks ago but have continued to play with a lot of pride. Sherman Lewis came in to oversee their offense in the middle of the season and instead of pouting, the ‘skins staff has worked well together. Solid professionalism by an understandably annoyed coaching staff has helped this team. And the defense is a given, probably the most underrated D in the NFL due to their early losses. They allow just a smidge over 5 yards per play, with the pass defense being particularly effective. This team has covered 4 games in a row yet won only the first of those games, with heartbreaking losses to good teams Philadelphia, Dallas, and New Orleans. They deserve a win, and want it badly, so we’re not going to call for a step back despite the grave disappointment of the loss to the undefeated Saints. In fact, the inability to win helps our cause here from a line value perspective. If they were stringing together wins in these games we’d have to be laying some significant points here, while they pretty much just have to win this game to cover. And emotionally the disappointment may be overcome by an opportunity to get a rare win today.
Nice win for the Raiders, even if they did have only 170 yards of offense through 3rd quarter. Oakland ended with 396 total yards, with 229 of those yards in the fourth quarter against a Steelers team that is simply in free fall and totally collapsed in the 4th quarter. Oakland did play hard. Tom Cable should never be confused with any of the NFL’s top coaches, but he is an aggressive playcaller and decisionmaker. In Pittsburgh the Raiders tried two trick plays (neither worked) and went for it on 4th downs twice, making it once. With the Redskins defense playing so well, those kinds of efforts could backfire here. Two starting offensive linemen went out with injuries on Sunday and neither returned. The Raiders are pretty banged up, even by late-season NFL standards. Whether they legitimately can put together a good game here and there, or if they simply are getting lucky against opponents overlooking them, Oakland has somehow now won 4 games. This is a big surprise, because the Raiders are, by any measure, a pretty awful football team. Heading into Sunday they were the lowest scoring game in the NFL, and second to last in both yardage and yards per play on offense. On defense the Raiders are 27th in yards per rush and 30th in yards per pass attempt.
Are the Raiders better with Gradkowski than with Russell at QB? Yep, it was a brilliant 4th quarter for the Toledo grad in his home town of Pittsburgh, could there be a bit of a letdown here? Letdowns are actually pretty standard for this team. In the week after the previous three wins, the Raiders lost by a combined 86-10. And they were no accident, as the losses saw Oakland outgained by 236, 186, and 189 yards. They are a poor team that has grabbed a few wins and revert back to their poor form the next week. We’ll look for that to happen again as this hard-trying Redskins team comes to town. Redskins by 1.

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Chargers (+3) over @Cowboys Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Chargers are playing as well as anyone in the NFL. And the wins have been impressive. 477-372 was the yardage advantage in their 30-23 win over the Browns, which was 30-14 at the 2-minute warning before some late game strangeness. The Chargers have now won 7 straight games, and covered 6 of those 7 games.
After their loss to a Giants team with a struggling defense and a hobbling QB on Sunday, the Cowboys need this win. But we’ve heard this song and dance for years now, as talented Dallas teams with great need have spit the bit down the stretch in recent years. The Cowboys are 2-6 straight up and 1-7 against the spread in the last four games of the regular season in their two season under Wade Phillips. The reverse is true for the Chargers under Norv Turner. 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread. Interesting numbers, as both of these guys are seen as big game butchers but when it comes to the NFL stretch run, Turner is just fine.
Chargers highly productive QB Phillip Rivers has been averaging almost 8.5 yards per pass attempt this season, with 19 TD passes, 6 interceptions. And he’s a focused leader, even if he is prone to some trash talking. Tony Romo had good stats in the loss to the Giants, averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt with 17 TD passes and 7 interceptions. But there’s something missing with Romo, as he doesn’t seem to have the ear of his teammates. The fact that he does things like go to Vegas for a short visit on the weekend following the Cowboys Thanksgiving Day game doesn’t show that he’s ready to exert the kind of leadership that many would like him to take. In today’s NFL off-days mean that you get to the facility an hour later than usual during the season. As the quarterbacks have similar statistics, these teams are fairly similar across the board, with the Chargers having some edges in the passing game and defensively, while the Cowboys have the superior running game, and are apparently getting healthier in that area. But the Cowboys pretty consistently underperform to their stats.
There’s one area that the Chargers can get an edge in. The Cowboys allowed 5 plays of 20 yards or more on Sunday, and additionally added a 79 yard punt return. The Chargers are one of the top big-play offenses in the NFL. And the way these teams close their seasons isn’t accidental, it’s actually a big edge for the Bolts. This is the time of year that San Diego cranks things up and it is the time of year that the Cowboys get mired in problems, off- field distractions, and inconsistency while playing poorly in big games. Dallas has had some big games on their home field, but it has tended to be against weaker competition. The Chargers have scored 30+ 4 games in a row. Chargers much stronger than their win looked on Sunday, as they led 30-14 with a yardage edge of nearly 200 yards before garbage time, which included a Browns onside kick recovery. Look for the disparate late season patterns to continue as Phillip Rivers has a big day and leads this team to victory. Chargers by 4.