5-Star – San Diego +3 over DALLAS – The Chargers were up 27-7 as a two TD road favorite against the Browns last week, but allowed Cleveland to get in the back door, winning only 23-30. This “close” win over the Browns should not be considered as evidence of a weak team. The Chargers did not commit a turnover, they were only forced to punt once and they had 477 yards of offense. They had 21 first downs and converted five of ten third downs. After the Browns scored an early TD, the Chargers reeled off 27 straight points and then relaxed again — perhaps looking ahead to this game. That win over the Browns made it seven straight W’s for the Chargers and the fact that they are getting a field goal here must be somewhat of an insult. Especially against a team that is 2-2 over their last four games with the two wins over the Redskins and Raiders.
San Diego is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a DOG after a game in which they converted at least 50% of their third downs and had at least 20 first downs. The SDQL is pretty uncomplicated:
team=Chargers and p:3DP>=50 and D and p:FD>=20 and 20041017<=date
As you can see by running the query, the Chargers are 7-2 straight up in this situation, beating the Giants in NY earlier in this season in this spot.
Also, the Chargers are 10-0 ATS (+7.5 ppg) as a dog after a straight up win as a TD+ favorite, 7-0 ATS (+12.8 ppg) the week after a straight up win as a favorite in which they had at least 100 more yards of of- fense than their season-to-date average, 7-0 ATS (+10.9 ppg) as a road dog the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road and 7-0 ATS (+11.3 ppg) as a dog the week after a win in which they allowed more points than expected.
Now, the Cowboys are off a loss in Dallas in which they attempted 55 passes. The last time that Dallas threw 55+ passes in a game was Thanksgiving 1998 vs the Vikings, with Troy Aikman at QB.
This has been the death knell for the Cowboys’ chances to cover the spread. Dallas is 0-24 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since November 1993 the week after they threw at least eight passes more than their season-to- date pass attempts per game as a favorite.
Dallas is 7-17 straight up in this situation with all 7 wins as a favorite of more than six points. If Dallas is not laying more than 6 points, as they are here, the Cowboys are 0-12 SU losing by an average of 17.1 ppg. As readers of MTi’s plays know, we have no respect for Wade Phillips and we think the Cowboys are significantly over-rated. Grab the points and consider a moneyline play on the Chargers.
MTi’s FORECAST: San Diego 24 DALLAS 17

4-Star Tampa Bay at NY Jets OVER 37 — The Jets beat the Bills 19-13 last week for their second straight win. They were turnover- free vs Buffalo and they have a terrific dichotomy in performance after a game in which they did not commit a turnover. If they are off a turnover-free game in which they won by more than a field goal, the Jets are 7-0 OU, with an average OU margin of 12.7 ppg. This includes a 30-25 loss to Miami earlier this season with the total at 40’. If they are off a loss in which they did not commit a turnover, the Jets are 0-8 OU. This includes their 16-13 overtime loss to the Bills in week six this season. So, when the Jets are off a win in which they were turnover-free they go OVER and when they are off a loss in which they were turnover-free they go UNDER. Here, they are off a six-point win, so we’ll go with the OVER.
Also, the computer uncovered the fact that the league as a whole is 15-0 OU after playing the Bills, if the total for that game was less than 39.
The Bucs are off divisional games against the Saints, Falcons and Panthers in each of the past three weeks. In their 16-6 loss to the Panthers last week, the Buccaneers’ had 469 yards of offense including 154 yards rushing and their defense was very tough. However, Josh Freeman threw FIVE interceptions and the Bucs blew another op- portunity. Tampa Bay is 9-0 OU after rushing for 150+ yards against a divisional opponent and allowing fewer than 24 points.
After a near-upset loss to the Falcons two weeks ago and their tough loss to the Panthers last week, the Bucs’ defense should have nothing left for this unimportant non-conference match-up. The Jets, buoyed by their recent last of turnovers, should use this opportunity to get Sanchez some confidence.
Indeed, NFL teams that are 500 or worse on the season are 26-0 OU since week 7, 2004 as a home dog vs a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks. If this one looks familiar, it should. We used it last week in the Redskins - Saints game, with Washington the qualifying team. The Saints’ 33-30 win was the highest scoring game on the board last week. Teams in this situation have gone over by an AVERAGE of 14.1 ppg. That 26 straight games that have gone over by an average margin of more than two touchdowns — and the OU line for this one is only 37!
Finally, it is worth mentioning that the Bucs are 5-0 OU since 2005 at home after a TD+ loss in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average, flying over by an average of 16.6 ppg. This includes their 28-21 loss to the Panthers earlier this season. Let’s go over this number.
MTi’s FORECAST: Tampa Bay 27 NY JETS 24