Lang 12/13
40 DIME - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - (Buy down a 1/2 to -6.5, or 7 if number goes to -7 or -7.5) - This is a bad matchup all the way around for the Denver Broncos.
First and foremost, just like last week when the public bet the Titans and the Colts went off a under a touchdown, and Peyton figured out a way to cover that number pushing the Colts record not only to a perfect 12-0, but a fantastic 9-3 ATS.
Only 3 pointspread blemishes were a 4-point win at home over the Niners laying 13, a 3 point win over the Texans laying 7 1/2 and the 1 point win over the Patriots laying 2.
Other than that, Indy has covered every game this year and it is very rare when you are as good as they are you are ever laying anything but double digits at home.
Today, just like last week you are getting value with the Colts, under a touchdown and it's value I can't pass up.
The million dollar question isn't what Peyton is going to do to the Broncos as we all know as good as he is playing he will get his. No folks, the question today is can Kyle Orton played good enough football to keep this a single digit game.
My dollar says he can't.
Indy is trying to become the only team in NFL history to win 22 regular season games in a row and also with a win today it's homefield all the way through the AFC playoffs.
The Broncos have made some noise the last 2 weeks crushing the Giants at home on Thanksgiving night, and then last week hammering a horrible Chiefs team.
Now all of a sudden people think they are back when prior to those 2 wins they had lost 4 games in a row by an average margin of 20 points.
Lastly, the Colts are very familiar with a lot of the Broncos scheme as they saw them when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator at New England. Advantage Colts.
Just like last week the Colts will execute their offense to perfection and when the 60 minutes are up, they will have won this game by double digits and covered the number right along with it.
Indy goes to 13-0 for the year, and 10-3 ATS right along with it.
20 DIME - CINCINNATI BENGALS (Buy up a 1/2 to +7, only if line is at +6.5) - The underdog in every Bengals game this year has covered the number. I'm not about to buck that trend now.
Adding to the woes of the Vikings in this game is the loss of middle linebacker E.J. Henderson. You have no idea how much that hurts the Vikings today.
When he went out last week against the Cardinals, you saw just how easily Arizona moved the football. That doesn't bode well for them today against this very balanced Bengals attack.
I'm talking about a Cincinnati team that won at Pittsburgh, won at Green Bay, and won at Baltimore.
You can bet on the fact the Bengals will not go quietly. They will battle because that is the makeup of this football team.
Brett Favre looked tired last week, and facing a Bengals defense that has allowed just 11 points a game the last 6 weeks and their defensive strength is the secondary.
Hard to blow a team out when they take away your passing game.
Only one QB has thrown for over 300 yards this year, and that was Matt Schaub and over their last 5 games this secondary has allowed less than 200 yards in every game.
They held the Ravens to 100 yards, Steelers to 146, Raiders to 186, Browns to 111 and the Lions to 165.
Brett may get his, but he won't get the big yards that will be needed to get a Vikings blowout, and I fully expect this game to go down to the wire.
And the river card for me is the fact since becoming head coach of the Minnesota Vikings Brad Childress is 0-7 ATS in the month of December at home.
Look for the underdog to remain perfect in every Bengals game this year.
10 DIME - NY JETS - (Buy down a 1/2 to -3 if line is at -3.5) - Simply put, rookie QB against #1 defense in the NFL.
A rookie QB who comes off 5 INT's on the road last week versus a Carolina defense that is no where near as good as the one he will see today.
This couldn't be a better matchup for Rex Ryan's blitz package against Josh Freeman, and if he thinks he saw some coverages last week, wait until he gets a load of this Jets defense.
Further compounding the Bucs problems in this game today is they are the 2nd worst run defense in the NFL facing the #1 rush offense. I've always maintained if you can't stop the run in the NFL you are not going to win football games.
The Jets were laying this same kind of number last week versus the Buffalo Bills and won by 6 in a game that wasn't as close as the score would lead you to believe. Their defense completely shut down the Bills to the tune of 194 yards total offense.
New York has playoff hopes. Every game is do or die. I like that in a football team.
As for Tampa Bay, it's living on a prayer. Living on the reality of losing and they have done a lot of that this year.
They have won win for the year, at home versus Green Bay and I feel Aaron Rogers had more to do with that than anything the Bucs did. He was sacked 6 times cause he held the ball to long and threw 3 INT's.
You are not going to get that from the Jets today who will run the ball and run the ball and run the ball some more.
Last week versus the Bills they ran 43 times for 249 yards and that was against the worst run defense in the NFL. Save to assume Kelly Clemens will be the beneficiary of over 200 yards rushing again today making him a play action QB all day long.
I am laying this number in what I feel will be a double digit win for the J-E-T-S....Jets, Jets, Jets.
FREE SELECTION - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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Originally Posted by ijenpo
