Navy over Army by 7 We have no clue why this game was chosen to bring down the curtain on college football’s 2009 regular season. And we can only hope that CBS doesn’t promote this afternoon’s 110th meeting between the two service academies as “one of the greatest spectacles in all of sports” because, quite frankly, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more one-sided ‘rivalry’ series in recent gridiron history. Navy has won a series-record seven-straight contests against Army, outscoring the Black Knights 274- 71, and a victory here would give the Middies a record seventh-straight Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy. Former Navy head coach Paul Johnson was particularly adept at routing the infantry, beating Army six straight times by an average score of 40-12. But 2nd-year skipper Ken Niumatalolo didn’t miss a beat when he took over for Johnson last year, crushing the Cadets 34-0. The only real item of interest in this matchup is the fact that Army can qualify for the EagleBank Bowl if they upset the Middies and finish 6-6. Yes, it’s been quite a season of accomplishment for 1st-year coach Rich Ellerton, especially when we note that the Black Knights’ previous three commanders – Stan Brock, Bobby Ross and Todd Berry – combined to produce just 19 wins in the past nine seasons. “It’s the start of something good,” freshman quarterback Trent Steelman said after the Cadets pulled out a 17-13 win over North Texas. “It’s the first time we’ve won five games since 1996. These seniors have laid such a great foundation and this is the start of something great and better years to come. It gives us a chance to go to a bowl game if we beat Navy and nothing would be better than that.” That’s a pretty tall order considering the Swabbies are 10-2 SU and ATS in the previous 12 engagements and the Cadets own a 3-11 ATS mark playing off two wins exact. Middies’ QB Ricky Dobbs is also No. 2 in the nation in touchdowns scored (23) and the Navy defense has not allowed an Army touchdown in eight quarters. Both squads are well-rested (Army off three weeks, Navy off two) but this scenario actually favors the Swabbies: they’re a superb 10-2 as chalk with rest while the Black Knights are a woeful 1-19 SU and 2-18 ATS with rest versus an opponent with a win percentage of > .333. But not all in the pointspread past guarantees a Navy cover. The Middies are just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS laying doubles to a foe off a SU underdog win and they’re a weak 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS as double- digit chalk versus a more than .400 opponent. So while recent history may support the sailors, Saturday’s situation does not since Navy already has a Texas Bowl bid tucked away in its back pocket. Behind orders from our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK on Page 2, and with an opportunity to take on their arch rivals with something more to play for than just pride,
the Cadets will be fired up to the max – and we’re marching with them.
INDIANA over Kentucky by 3 The Hoosiers host the Wildcats in this annual border war with Tom Crean desperately looking to improve on last year’s 6-win effort. Our history book reads in his favor with the home team in this series 5-0-1 ATS. It also reminds us that Indiana is 114-19 SU at home in non-conference affairs, with only 10 losses by more than five points. With Kentucky checking in off Wednesday’s SEC/Big East showdown against Connecticut at Madison Square Garden, look for IU to improve to 20-11 ATS as a home dog here today. Surprise in Bloomington!
BUTLER over Ohio St by 10 A matchup of two teams each refortified with five returning starters from last year’s teams finds the Bulldogs hosting the Buckeyes in a battle of two NCAA tourney teams from last year. It’s safe to say Butler enjoys playing at Hinkle Fieldhouse where they are 55-5 SU since the 2005 season. They are also 11-4-1 ATS in battles with the Big 10, including a 54-51 cover-loss at Ohio State last season. With that, we’ll fade the Buckeyes in their first true road game of the campaign – especially with leading scorer F Evan Turner out for at least two months with a spine injury – as OSU drops to 3-15 SU
and ATS in road openers here this afternoon. The Butler did it!
DENVER over Phoenix by 13 Melo and the Nuggets host Steve Nash and the Suns knowing Phoenix is back on the road after a mini-one game home stand last night, a game in which the Suns played with same-season revenge against Orlando. It’s never easy playing in Denver these days without rest, a role in which Phoenix is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this decade. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are a nifty 9-1 ATS as a host in this series with rest when they own a win percentage of .333 or more. Look for Phoenix to run out of gas in the late stages of this contest as the Nuggets get the gold here tonight.
Marc Lawrence Playbook NL 12/12
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