3-Unit Play #701 Take New Jersey/Indiana UNDER 197 1/2 (7 p.m. EST, Friday) *note this was lowered from a 4-point play due to a 1 ½ point line shift right before release time. These two teams met once already this season and the total reached 174, and that was with Danny Granger in the lineup for the Pacers. Well, Granger scored a Pacers-high 22 in that game but he is sidelined with injury. We just don’t understand what the oddsmakers are thinking with the last couple of New Jersey totals. This team has given up some points to up-tempo teams lately but they just have a putrid offense that is dead last in the NBA in points per game, field goal percentage and also three-point percentage. The loss of Granger really hurts Indiana offensively and we think this one is just a few points tool high. 4-Unit Play #705 Take Atlanta/Toronto OVER 209 ½ (7 p.m. EST, Friday) After Toronto gave up 145 to Atlanta last week we can understand how the oddsmakers might think this would be a lower scoring game. But to post a total lower than the one that got beat by almost 40 points? That seems ludicrous. We could understand that Toronto might want to buckle down on defense. But they can’t. They totally and completely stink defensively. Atlanta is going to be able to do what they want offensively and this one will be a barnburner. Of course Atlanta won’t get anywhere near 145 but anywhere over 110 should do the trick here and the Raptors give that up on a nightly basis even to some bad offenses. Atlanta is Top 6 in points scored and they are middle of the pack defensively so Toronto should be able to get to the basket tonight as well. 2-Unit Play #716 Take Memphis -2 Over Oklahoma City (8 p.m. EST, Friday) Take a shot at the home favorite tonight since this line is very slim and the Grizzlies have been playing really well lately. These two teams are pretty even in our eyes and we think home court in the NBA is more valuable than the two points that the chalk is laying here tonight and we think Memphis has more consistency right now as they have three solid wins in a row while OKC seems to trade off wins and losses with no pattern or consistency. Should be a good game but we think the home team will pull away in the fourth. 3-Unit Play #713 Take Portland +10 Over Cleveland (8 p.m. EST, Friday) This just seems like a very public line. We know the Blazers are in the midst of a road trip and that they are banged up but this should be a low scoring game and that makes every point more valuable. The Blazers haven’t been more than a 6-point dog all season long and now they are getting double digits? Was Greg Oden that valuable? Cleveland doesn’t seem like the same team as last year and they have already shown vulnerabilities at home. They are just 3-5 ATS as chalk of 10 or more points this season. Think Cleveland gets the win but think this one will be somewhat close we think Portland fights for four quarters.
Two other handicappers released a 5 star premium selection for NJ/Indiana over the total... Take it for what its worth.. The under seems like the right play but since the NBA seems 100 % fixed, you'll never know
Doc's NBA 12/11
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