Nick Parsons 12/10
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Dec 10 2009 8:20PM
PICK: Cleveland Browns Your pick will be graded at: 10 Belmont EXPERT: Nick Parsons TITLE: *10* "BOOKIEKILLER"! 4-0/100% RUN! REASON FOR PICK: For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the large home dog:
Pittsburgh has lost four in a row and I believe this team is on the ropes.
The Steelers' once-vaunted defense has blown fourth-quarter leads lately, with its worst collapse Sunday against Oakland. Pittsburgh coughed up three separate leads in the final 8:21, allowing the Raiders' 31st-ranked offense to score 21 points and leave Heinz Field with a 27-24 win.
Receiver Hines Ward, who has six TD's in his last eight games against Cleveland, likely won't play after suffering a hamstring injury late in the loss to Oakland.
Roethlisberger looked better last week, but should be under duress once again on the road and in adverse weather conditions.
So it comes as no surprise to learn that Pittsburgh is a horrible 4-9 ATS its last 13 overall, 1-4 SU its last five overall and a brutal 2-6 ATS its last eight on the road!
On the other side of the field: We were on the Browns last weekend, and I believe they will once again do just enough in this one to come sneak away with an ATS victory.
Brady Quinn has had solid numbers in two of his last three outings; Quinn threw for 304 yards and four TD's in Cleveland's last-second 38-37 loss at Detroit on Nov. 22, then had 271 yards and 3 TDs Sunday in a 30-23 defeat to San Diego.
Remember, Cleveland is 6-3 ATS its last nine overall.
Bottom line: On a cold and blustery night, I believe this is simply too many points to be giving up to a home team anxious to prove itself.
Pittsburgh is dealing with too many injuries on both sides of the ball right now; look for CLEVELAND to move to 4-2 ATS vs. division opponents this year and for Pittsburgh to fall to 3-7 ATS vs. conference opponents this season!
*10*
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Wish I would have not finished reading the thread!