View New Posts
  1. #1

    Default Ben Burns 12/10

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Dec 10 2009 8:20PM

    PICK: under Your pick will be graded at: 36.5 SPORTSBETTING EXPERT: Ben Burns TITLE: *78% YTD* Burns MAIN EVENT (HUGE 20-7 RUN!) REASON FOR PICK: I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. Thursday NFL games have been very profitable for 'under' bettors this season. In what figures to be a cold and stormy December night at Cleveland, I'm expecting another low-scoring affair this week. Note that even with last week's game finishing above the total, the UNDER is still 4-1 the last five times that the Browns played a home game in the month of December and a profitable 9-1-2 their last dozen December games overall.

    These teams faced each other at Pittsburgh back in mid-October. That game finished 'over' the total with the Steelers winning by a 27-14 margin. However, it easily could have been lower-scoring. For starters, the Browns were extremely fortunate to even score 14 points, as they only gained 109 total yards of offense for the game. Seven of their points came on a 98-yard Cribbs kick return. While Pittsburgh did put up very big yards, the Steelers scored three of their points thanks to a very questionable call, where the referee awarded them a first down, on a 4th and short, which should have given the Browns the ball. Cleveland players were furious and even Pittsburgh players acknowledged that they got a break. Additionally, note that Hines Ward scored a touchdown and had eight receptions for a whopping 159 yards. That's worth mentioning as Ward has a strained hamstring and is currently "very questionable," according to Coach Mike Tomlin. Even if he does play, its unlikely that he'll come close to matching what he did in the Week 6 meeting.

    Yes, the earlier game did find its way above the total. However, both last season's meetings between these teams finished below the number, each producing 31 points or less. The most recent game here at Cleveland finished with a mere 16 combined points, a 10-6 Pittsburgh victory last season.

    I played on the Browns vs. San Diego last week, so was happy to see them score enough points to cover the spread. However, it should be noted that they scored their final touchdown right at the end of the game and that they only had seven points through three quarters. Prior to that, they'd scored seven points or less in four of their previous five games. Their 12.1 points per game ranks second worst in the AFC And third worst in the NFL. Only Oakland and St. Louis are worse and the Browns are barely ahead of either of them. In terms of total yards, they're dead last. They're also dead last in terms of yards per play and they rank second worst, in terms of first downs. In other words, this offense is really bad.

    Now, the Browns will face a Pittsburgh defense that still ranks in the top 5 in the league, in terms of yards allowed, and which is surely going to be upset, after giving up so many (27) points to Oakland last week. Note that Pittsburgh is allowing only 270 yards per game vs. division opponents. The Browns are averaging just 221 yards in their division games, managing a mere 8.8 points.

    Yes, the number is low. However, I feel that it could (and should) be even lower. I expect the UNDER to improve to 7-2 the last nine times that the Browns were underdogs of greater than eight points. *9 Main Event RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BetEd Logan's BetJamaica Pittsburgh Steelers
    Cleveland Browns
    -10
    32.5
    -110 -10
    36
    -110 -10
    32.5
    -110

  2. #2

    Default

    It would be quicker and less painful if he would just say I am picking the under because that's all I do is pick unders.

  3. #3

  4. #4

    Default

    36.5?

    good luck finding it, another bs pick

    SBR Founder Join Date: 9/4/2005


  5. #5

  6. #6

  7. #7

    Default

    Burns' 7* ESPN BEATDOWN!
    FLORIDA GATORS (+3) over Syracuse Orangemen

    ***BEN BURNS*** Basketball (NCAA) for Thursday: FLORIDA Game: Syracuse vs. Florida Game Time: 12/10/2009 9:00:00 PM

    Prediction: Florida Reason: I'm taking the points with FLORIDA. Both these teams lost their top scorer from last year. However, both are still a perfect 8-0 to start the season. With this game being played at Tampa, I expect it to be Florida which maintains its perfect record. Many haven't realized it yet but the Gators are much better than they were last year. Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim knows it though. He was quoted as saying: "Florida is very good. I think they're really a much better team than they were last year..." Behind a big game from Jonny Flynn, now in the NBA, the Orange won last year's meeting (at Kansas) by six points. Syracuse shot 51.7% in that game. The main area where the Gators are improved this year is on the defensive side of the ball. Thus far, Florida opponents are shooting a mere 38.7 percent. While this is technically a "neutral court" game, naturally the crowd will favor the Gators. Note that they're 4-2 all-time at the St. Pete Times Forum. Also, the Gators are a profitable 7-1-1 ATS the last nine times that they were neutral court underdogs (or pick'em) of three points or less. Additionally, note that the Orange typically play most of their non-conference games fairly close to their own campus. Of their eight games this year, six have come at home and two have come at Madison Square Garden. While the Orange are certainly worthy of respect, this will be an entirely different atmosphere than they've seen so far this season. The Gators have already beaten some very tough teams. They also already knocked off a team (Rutgers) from the Big East. They're now 15-7 against teams from the Big East under coach Billy Donovan. A win against the Orange would do wonders for the Gators, come March. I expect them to rise to the occasion, continuing their terrific start, and avenging last year's loss. *7

  8. #8

    Default

    He released the NFL total yesterday morning early. It was legit then.

  9. #9

  10. #10

  11. #11

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by thebestthereis View Post
    It would be quicker and less painful if he would just say I am picking the under because that's all I do is pick unders.

    I paid for his picks last season and he won only 50% of picks, but he was quite good
    in December and January.
    Good luck with this TOTALS GURU

  12. #12

    Default

    Burns

    Game: Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards Dec 10 2009 8:05PM
    Prediction: Washington Wizards

    Reason: I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. With the Celtics on an eight game winning streak and with the Wizards having lost two in a row, many will hesitate to back the home underdog here. That sentiment has provided us with plenty of line value. A closer look at Boston's eight game winning streak shows that only three of the victories came by more than nine points. They won the other five games by an average of less than six points. Looking back a little further and we find them at just 7-11 ATS, dating back to the beginning of November. While the Wizards are off back to back losses, both those defeats came by four points or less. In fact, each of their last four games has been decided by four points or less - they went 2-2 in those games. Looking back further and we find that the Wizards have won four of their last seven games. Of those seven games, only one resulted in a loss of greater than four points. That lone lopsided loss (11/28 at Charlotte) came when the Wizards were playing the second of back to back games. Tonight, however, the Wizards are very well rested - they haven't played since 12/6. I believe that the fact that the Wizards haven't played since 12/6 is significant. Note that the last time that they played, after having the previous three days off, came vs. Cleveland on 11/18. Listed as +3.5 underdogs, they Wizards won outright. In fact, they crushed the Cavs by a score 108-91. Coincidentally, the Wizards were coming off a 3-point lss vs. Detroit, prior to their break. This time, they're coming off a 4-point loss, vs. those same Pistons. While the Wizards are well-rested, the same cannot be said for the Celts. Yes, they did have last night off. However, they're also in the midst of playing seven of their last eight games on the road. While he's not one of the "Big 3,' note that the Celts will be without guard Marquis Daniels. The Wizards do allow just slightly over 100 points per game. However, with Arenas, Jamsion and Butler all averaging more than 16.5 points per game, (Arenas and Jamison average more than 20) they can also trade points with the best of them. Additionally, the Celtics are just 3-8 ATS their last 11 against teams which allow 99 or more points. They're also only 3-6 ATS vs. sub-500 teams. I expect another one which comes down to the wire. *9 Best Best

  13. #13

Top