Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Dec 10 2009 8:20PM
PICK: under Your pick will be graded at: 36.5 SPORTSBETTING EXPERT: Ben Burns TITLE: *78% YTD* Burns MAIN EVENT (HUGE 20-7 RUN!) REASON FOR PICK: I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. Thursday NFL games have been very profitable for 'under' bettors this season. In what figures to be a cold and stormy December night at Cleveland, I'm expecting another low-scoring affair this week. Note that even with last week's game finishing above the total, the UNDER is still 4-1 the last five times that the Browns played a home game in the month of December and a profitable 9-1-2 their last dozen December games overall.
These teams faced each other at Pittsburgh back in mid-October. That game finished 'over' the total with the Steelers winning by a 27-14 margin. However, it easily could have been lower-scoring. For starters, the Browns were extremely fortunate to even score 14 points, as they only gained 109 total yards of offense for the game. Seven of their points came on a 98-yard Cribbs kick return. While Pittsburgh did put up very big yards, the Steelers scored three of their points thanks to a very questionable call, where the referee awarded them a first down, on a 4th and short, which should have given the Browns the ball. Cleveland players were furious and even Pittsburgh players acknowledged that they got a break. Additionally, note that Hines Ward scored a touchdown and had eight receptions for a whopping 159 yards. That's worth mentioning as Ward has a strained hamstring and is currently "very questionable," according to Coach Mike Tomlin. Even if he does play, its unlikely that he'll come close to matching what he did in the Week 6 meeting.
Yes, the earlier game did find its way above the total. However, both last season's meetings between these teams finished below the number, each producing 31 points or less. The most recent game here at Cleveland finished with a mere 16 combined points, a 10-6 Pittsburgh victory last season.
I played on the Browns vs. San Diego last week, so was happy to see them score enough points to cover the spread. However, it should be noted that they scored their final touchdown right at the end of the game and that they only had seven points through three quarters. Prior to that, they'd scored seven points or less in four of their previous five games. Their 12.1 points per game ranks second worst in the AFC And third worst in the NFL. Only Oakland and St. Louis are worse and the Browns are barely ahead of either of them. In terms of total yards, they're dead last. They're also dead last in terms of yards per play and they rank second worst, in terms of first downs. In other words, this offense is really bad.
Now, the Browns will face a Pittsburgh defense that still ranks in the top 5 in the league, in terms of yards allowed, and which is surely going to be upset, after giving up so many (27) points to Oakland last week. Note that Pittsburgh is allowing only 270 yards per game vs. division opponents. The Browns are averaging just 221 yards in their division games, managing a mere 8.8 points.
Yes, the number is low. However, I feel that it could (and should) be even lower. I expect the UNDER to improve to 7-2 the last nine times that the Browns were underdogs of greater than eight points. *9 Main Event RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BetEd Logan's BetJamaica Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns -10
32.5
-110 -10
36
-110 -10
32.5
-110
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