Jeff Benton Thursday's NFL Hoops winner ... 15 Dime: BROWNS (plus the points vs. Steelers)


Browns

No, this isn’t a kneejerk response to losing Sunday’s 20 Dime Best Bet on the Steelers. It’s simply me coming to the realization – a little late in the game, perhaps – that the Steelers just are not a very good football team this year (or at least right now, they’re not). Good teams just don’t give up 27 points to both the god-awful Chiefs and Raiders and lose those games outright as a double-digit favorite. Good teams don’t lose at home to the Bengals as a touchdown favorite. And good teams just don’t blow fourth-quarter leads, which Pittsburgh has done in all six of its losses.

Clearly, after that last-second loss to Oakland on Sunday (at home, no less), the Steelers are in a big-time crisis mode for the first time in a few years and the first time under coach Mike Tomlin. And given they’ve lost four straight games (including three in a row by a field goal), I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Steelers’ collective mental approach right now is “this just isn’t our year.” One thing is for certain: Pittsburgh misses defensive star and leader Troy Polamalu. Polamalu has missed the last 3˝ games, and not-so-coincidentally, the Steelers lost those contests while giving up 27, 20 and 27 points in the last three. Polamalu will be on the sidelines again tonight (and possibly for the rest of the season), and without their heart and soul, you simply cannot trust the Steelers defense – no, not even against the Browns.

After all, Cleveland has shown some fight the last three weeks. It lost to the Lions (38-37 on the road), Bengals (16-7 on the road) and Chargers (30-23 at home), but covered the spread in all three games. Going back to Week 4, the Browns are 6-3 ATS, including a 27-14 loss in Pittsburgh as a 14-point road ‘dog in the first meeting between these squads. That game was played in perfect weather; this one will not be, as temperatures are expected to be in the teens with blizzard-like conditions. When you get this kind of nasty weather, the value on the underdog rises exponentially – and it rises even higher when that underdog is at home and catching double digits, as the Browns are.

Cleveland not only cashed at Pittsburgh back in October, but it is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in this heated Rivalry, including a 10-6 home loss last year as a six-point ‘dog. Besides that and their ongoing 6-3 ATS streak over the past nine weeks, the Browns have covered in five of six against AFC opponents and eight of 11 when catching between 3˝ and 10 points. On the other hand, the Steelers – who have cult following across the country – have been sending their supporters to the poorhouse recently, sporting negative ATS trends of 4-9 overall, 2-6 on the road, 3-9 as a favorite and 1-6 as a road chalk. Most tellingly, Pittsburgh has failed to cover in five straight games against a team with a losing record. That last one tells me two things: 1) The Steelers have a habit of playing down to their level of competition; and 2) As I said at the outset, the Steelers just aren’t that good; they’re simply living on reputation.

In the end, because they have more talent and because they’re so desperate, I would expect the defending champs to find a way to win tonight. Then again, I expected them to beat the Raiders and Chiefs, too, so I certainly wouldn’t be blown away if Cleveland won this outright. Either way, given the state of both franchises right now; given the fact this is, essentially, the Browns’ Super Bowl; given the fact the Steelers will be without out their most important leader (Polamalu) and possibly their second most important leader (Hines Ward is doubtful); and given the extreme weather that’s going to play a factor tonight, the only option is to take the generous points with the home team.