Sports Advisors 12/10
The Sports Advisors
12/10/09
NFL
Pittsburgh (6-6, 4-8 ATS) at Cleveland (1-11, 6-6 ATS)
The freefalling Steelers, looking nothing like the defending Super Bowl champions, look to halt a four-game losing skid and get back in the playoff hunt when they make the quick trip to Cleveland on a short week to face the division rival Browns.
Pittsburgh is coming off Sunday’s shocking 27-24 loss to Oakland as an overwhelming 14½-point home favorite, giving up the game-winning TD pass with nine seconds remaining. The Steelers, who are now four spots out of even earning a wild-card playoff bid, allowed the pedestrian Raiders offense to roll up 396 total yards and score 21 points in the final 8½ minutes. Mike Tomlin’s troops have lost four in a row (1-3 ATS) by a total of 15 points, the last three defeats being three-point setbacks, and they had a fourth-quarter lead in all four games.
Cleveland rallied from a 27-7 fourth-quarter deficit to San Diego on Sunday but eventually fell short 30-23, though it managed to cover as a heavy 13½-point home underdog for its third straight ATS win. It was just the second time all season that the Browns scored more than 20 points, and they have now lost seven in a row (4-3 ATS).
Although Pittsburgh’s vaunted defense has surrendered 27, 20 and 27 points the last three weeks to sub-par offenses (Kansas City, Baltimore and Oakland), the Steelers are still allowing just 297.3 total ypg, which still ranks fifth in the NFL. Pittsburgh is also still in the top half of the league in offense, averaging 22.7 ppg (14th), 374.8 total yards per game (7th) and 258 passing ypg (10th).
Cleveland ranks dead last in total offense (242.4 ypg) and 30th in scoring (12.1 ppg), and the Browns are also last in total defense, allowing a whopping 400.2 ypg, and 27th in scoring defense (25.8 ppg).
Pittsburgh has won the last dozen meetings in this rivalry (8-3-1 ATS), including a 27-14 home victory Oct. 18, though the Browns narrowly cashed as a 14-point pup. The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS on their last six trips to Cleveland, and Pittsburgh has been the favorite in the last 11 contests, going 7-3-1 ATS.
Along with their current 1-3 ATS purge, the Steelers are on pointspread skids of 4-9 overall, 2-6 on the road, 0-5 against losing teams, 3-9 as a favorite and 1-6 as a road chalk. The lone bright spot: a 4-1 ATS mark in their last five Thursday games.
The Browns have dropped 17 of their last 18 regular-season games (6-11-1 ATS) and are on pointspread slides of 2-7-1 at home, 1-4 in December and 3-7 when catching double digits, but they still sport positive ATS runs of 5-1 against AFC foes, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 8-2-1 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points.
The over for Pittsburgh is on a bundle of tears, including 7-3 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 4-0 against losing teams, 5-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a non-cover and 19-7 against AFC foes. The over is also 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in this rivalry. However, for Cleveland, the under is on streaks of 9-2-1 in December, 5-2 in the AFC North and 7-3 in AFC action.
Finally, the total has stayed low in all six Thursday contests this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
NBA
Orlando (17-4, 13-8 ATS) at Utah (12-9, 11-10 ATS)
The red-hot Magic continue a four-game Western Conference road trip with their only visit of the season to EnergySolutions Arena for a battle with the Jazz.
Orlando dumped the Clippers 97-86 as a seven-point road favorite on Tuesday, its sixth consecutive victory (4-2 ATS). Going back to the middle of November, the Magic have won 11 of their last 12 games overall (8-4 ATS), and they’ve won eight straight road games (6-2 ATS). During its current six-game winning streak, Stan Van Gundy’s squad has posted five wins of nine points or more, with an average margin of victory of 10.3 ppg (108-97.3).
Utah is coming off Wednesday’s 101-77 loss to the Lakers as a 10½-point road underdog. The Jazz, who led 52-48 at halftime, managed just 25 points in the second half, including only six points on two field goals in the fourth quarter. Despite the ugly second half last night, Utah is still 9-4 SU and ATS in its last 13 contests, and it has won and covered five straight home games.
The Magic swept the season series from the Jazz last year, winning 103-94 in Salt Lake City as a 7½-point road underdog exactly one year ago, then rolling 105-87 as a 5½-point home chalk three months later. Orlando is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS (3-0 ATS last three) in the past seven meetings, and going back further, the Magic are on a 13-3-1 ATS roll against the Jazz, including 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven trips to Utah. Finally, the underdog has covered in five of the last six series clashes.
For the season, the Magic are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS on the road, allowing an average of just 93.6 ppg (43.3 percent shooting), while Utah is 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS at home, scoring 104.2 ppg (51.2 percent shooting).
The Magic are riding positive ATS streaks of 7-3 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 5-1 when playing on one day of rest and 6-2 against the Northwest Division. The Jazz are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 5-0 at home, 4-0 on Thursday and 5-1 against the Eastern Conference, but Jerry Sloan’s squad is also just 10-25-2 ATS in its last 37 contests against Southeast Division opponents and 8-20 ATS in its last 28 when playing on back-to-back nights.
Orlando has gone over the total in four of its last five games, but otherwise the Magic are on “under” runs of 10-4 on the road, 10-4 against the Western Conference, 4-1 against the Northwest Division, 14-3 on Thursday and 5-1 against winning teams. Utah has topped the total in four of its last six overall and five of its last seven at home, but the under is 4-1 in its last five against teams from the Southeast Division and 5-2 in its last seven in the marquee Thursday slot.
The under is 5-1 in the last six matchups between these teams and 5-2 in the last seven battles at EnergySolutions Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(7) Syracuse (8-0, 5-1 ATS) vs. (10) Florida (8-0, 4-1 ATS)
(at Tampa, Fla.)
A matchup of unbeaten Top 10 opponents is slated for the St. Pete Times Forum, where Florida serves as the official host against Syracuse in an SEC/Big East Invitational contest.
Not only are the Orange off to a perfect 8-0 start, but they’ve won all eight games by at least 15 points. Six of the eight victories came against below-average competition at home (Robert Morris, Albany, Cornell, Columbia, Colgate and Maine). The other two wins were against Top 15 competition in the NIT Season Tip-Off at Madison Square Garden – a 95-73 triumph over then-No. 13 Cal in a pick-em game on Nov. 19, followed the next day by an 87-71 rout of then-No. 6 North Carolina as a 1½-point underdog.
Like Syracuse, the Gators have fattened up on a cupcake schedule, facing only three teams from quality conferences: instate rival Florida State (68-52 win as a 1½-point home favorite), Michigan State (77-74 win as a 3½-point neutral-site underdog) and Rutgers (73-58 as a 12½-point neutral-site ‘dog). With the exception of the Michigan State win, Florida – like the Orange – has posted nothing but double-digit blowout victories.
These teams met in a preseason tournament in Kansas City last November, with Syracuse winning 89-83 as a 3½-point underdog. The only other meeting this decade came in November 2005 at Madison Square Garden, with the Gators prevailing 75-70 as a three-point chalk.
The Orange are averaging 90.4 points per game (55.8 percent shooting) and giving up 61.6 ppg (35.7 percent), and since a season-opening 75-43 win over Albany, Jim Boeheim’s club has scored at least 85 points in every game.
Florida puts up 75.8 ppg (46.7 percent shooting) and yields just 57.9 ppg (38.7 percent). Six of the Gators’ eight foes have been held under 60 points, and Billy Donovan’s team has scored at least 68 points in every game.
Syracuse has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 games against SEC opponents, but otherwise is on positive ATS runs of 14-3 overall in lined games, 5-1 in non-conference action, 4-1 at neutral sites, 10-3 against winning teams and 6-0 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points. Florida is riding positive pointspread streaks of 4-0 overall, 7-1 against the Big East, 10-2 on Thursday and 4-0 against winning teams.
The Orange sport “over” trends of 8-2 overall, 10-2 at neutral sites, 4-1 against the SEC, 20-7 after a SU win and 4-0 on Thursday. Florida also has topped the total in seven of 10 against the Big East and eight of 11 on Thursday, but the Gators have also stayed under the total in seven straight lined games overall and 21 of 28 after a SU win.
Finally, both meetings between these schools this decade topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Reply With Quote