Lost the guaranteed play on Cincinnati Saturday, and some will say it was the proverbial "tough beat" because the Bearcats failed to push or cover by one lowly point depending on your closing price. But, let's be honest here: Cincinnati never deserved to be in the game after falling behind by 21 early because its defense was defenseless when it came to stopping Pitt freshman running back Dion Lewis, who I thought was either going to collapse from exhaustion or run for 300 yards in the contest after his hot start. On the other hand, the final quarter of that game was one of the most exciting I've seen this season and was a helluva of a lot more enjoyable to watch than anything the Florida-Alabama snoozer offered.
To use a golf analogy, in college football this season I've been like a duffer who is consistently struggling with his shot off the tee. But, staying with the link-lingo, I've consistently scrambled back to par by making birdies or eagles with my NFL performances on Sunday and Monday. And that's why games are rated independently and why I'm in position to record my 8th straight winning football season with eight more weeks of action remaining.
Back to the matter at hand, today's selection on Seattle; the oddsmakers are just begging you to back San Francisco in this game.
Yes, the Niners won the first meeting in the season's second week, 23-10 at home as Frank Gore ran for 207 of his team's 256 yards. But this is a different San Francisco club playing today, one that is now a passing team with Alex Smith at quarterback instead of Shaun Hill.
Here's the most interesting thing I can tell you about the 49ers: they've been outgained in seven of the past eight games. Think about that for a second because there's only a couple of reasons behind that fact. Either the offense moves the ball but gets bogged down in the red zone and/or turns it over, or the defense is unable to get key stops. And that's why this team is nothing more than a .500 club that if you recall needed an incredible five interception performance by Jay Cutler to beat the lowly Bears a few weeks ago on a nationally-televised home game (in which I had San Fran).
Seattle is coming off a 27-17 win at St. Louis which capped a three-game road trip that began with stops in Arizona and Minnesota, two games in which Matt Hasselbeck gallantly played through despite an aching shoulder that affected his throwing motion. But today the Seattle signal-caller gets to face another lousy pass defense, one that is ranked 28th in the league with an average yield of 256 yards a game.
For the Seahawks, this is just their second home game in a six-week stretch. And Hasselbeck also takes the field today with some semblance of ground support. Justin Forsett, who has cracked the century mark in two of the past three games filling in for Julius Jones, is coming off a 22-carry, 130-yard, two-touchdown effort at St. Louis and is averaging 5.7 yards per carry. And Jones is expected to be back in action today as well.
I know the Niners are coming off a 20-3 home win against Jacksonville last Sunday, but when have the Jaguars played well on the road this season? And San Fran was outgained in that game as well by a 357-284 margin.
FYI - that was the same Jacksonville team the Seahawks whipped at home 41-0 back in the second week of October.
As I said at the outset, I believe the oddsmakers are just begging you to bet San Francisco today. The 49ers have been a tremendous play as an underdog during Mike Singletary's brief tenure, especially on the road, but they're not getting the big points in this one like they were two road games back when they caught 13 at Indy. And don't forget in their last road outing, when they were a six-point pup at Green Bay, they needed a furious fourth-quarterback comeback in garbage time to get the cover in a 30-24 loss in which they were thoroughly outplayed.
Al DeMarco 12/6
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GOOD LUCK SEAHAWKS!!!!
