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LLXC
4* NEW ENGLAND over MIAMI
Let’s begin our N.F.L. week by locking in on this one, with 3’s available in the market as of Thursday afternoon. Those lines, of course, came when a major rumor was circulated this morning that Tom Brady was “questionable” for New England, and a game that had been as high as -6 began crashing. We will follow up later with more details on this game, with those “Bill Belichick off of a loss” numbers coming into play again, but for now here is the report filed by New England for the Thursday practice, which was more than 90 minutes after the mark surge took place –DID NOT PARTICIPATE:
RB Fred Taylor (ankle)
S Bret Lockett (groin).LIMITED PARTICIPATION:
WR Sam Aiken (hip)
LB Eric Alexander (groin)
TE Chris Baker (shoulder)
LB Tully Banta-Cain (shoulder)
NT Ron Brace (ankle)
WR Julian Edelman (forearm)
DE Jarvis Green (knee)
OT Nick Kaczur (ankle)
C Dan Koppen (knee)
OT Matt Light (knee)
RB Sammy Morris (knee)
G Stephen Neal (ankle)
LB Rob Ninkovich (knee)
OT Sebastian Vollmer (head)
DE Ty Warren (ankle)
LB Pierre Woods (groin).FULL PARTICIPATION:
QB Tom Brady (shoulder)
CB Shawn Springs (knee).We do not believe that we can be hurt by locking in now, and will go ahead with a full 4* play.ADDED INFO –OK, now the markets have had their fun and Brady’s status has is becoming well known, yet the books are still slow to trickle the game back up. That leaves outstanding value for the traditional handicap to get into play. In this week’s edition of ”Verities & Balderdash” we note those awful problems the Dolphins are having in the fourth quarter of games, allowing a league high in points. It happens when you have an inexperienced QB and one of the weakest sets of WR’s in the league, which means trouble making things happen, and also when the defense is so young at those key CB positions. Only the Lions, Raiders and Browns have a wider gap between Yards Per Pass and Yards Per Pass Allowed, and with the Patriots now seeing the Wildcat for the fourth time in the last two seasons it will be on that Miami passing attack to make things happen. That is far more than Chad Henne can shoulder right now, especially since the defense will one again be hard-pressed to make stops – the Patriots rolled to 432 yards in that earlier home win, with Randy Moss and Wes Welker running free to the tune of 15 catches for 231. As for Belichick off of a loss here are the numbers – in his last 21 appearances in the role the Patriots are a sparkling 20-1 SU and 18-3 ATS, beating the spread by 271 points in the process. That is a significant margin of 12.9 per game over what the oddsmakers are projecting. The base premise fits awfully well here, especially since a loss would reduce their division lead to a single game, and they take care of business against a young team that can be exploited by the experience and savvy that they bring to the table.
4* GREEN BAY over BALTIMORE
We know where we are going to be on Monday night, and because the markets are showing signs of aligning the same way we will pull the trigger now – the 3’s that are available are going to be harder to find as we get closer to kickoff.The Packers have been significantly better than the Ravens across the board, and in fact have been one of the N.F.L.’s best teams when we go through the base categories – they lead the opposition by a commanding 6:48 per game in time of possession, off of advantages of 49 first downs and 1,105 yards. They get 1.83 yards per pass more than they allow, and the rushing is 4.3 vs. 3.6. But they have not been able to show better than that 7-4 in the W/L column because of one significant weakness, the inability to protect Aaron Rodgers early in the season. Through those 11 games they have allowed an alarming 44 sacks. But as the OL developed some chemistry, and the playbook was tweaked to work around the protection issues, there are signs of real improvement, with no sacks allowed the last two games. And when Rodgers is not being sacked this passing attack brings tremendous abilities to attack down the field – he has had a passer rating of at least 108.0 in seven of the last nine games, and three different Green Bay receivers have are averaging better than 15.0 per catch with more than 20 receptions.The passing game presents a major headache for a Baltimore secondary that has struggled all season, and in the first road game since losing Fabian Washington they are even more vulnerable. To make matters worse they can not rely on the pass rush to pick up much of the slack with Terrell Suggs, who is expected to miss his third straight game, and they have not recorded a sack since he went down. And while it does look like Ed Reed will be able to go, Reed missed two days of practice this week, and is not going to be 100 percent.Do not be surprised to see a weary Baltimore team here off of those exhausting outings against the Colts and Steelers the past two weeks, while the Packers not only have the advantage of extra preparation time, but they were coasting in each of their last two outings (remember that the 30-24 win over San Francisco was at 30-10 in the fourth quarter). The edge in freshness brings an aggressive approach that can put the Raven pass defense on its heels, and leads to a convincing win
David Malinsky 12/6
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Didn't say I was - if he wants to post him, he can post them. I don't give a crap if he does or doesn't.
or just an ass,
all u do is complain and wine.... cry me a river
