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Key Releases:
PITTSBURGH by 24 over Oakland
TENNESSEE by 3 over Indianapolis
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Houston-Jacksonville game

PITTSBURGH 27 - Oakland 3—Has Congress’ pressure on NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell resulted in more-stringent restrictions on players who suffer concussions (e.g., Ben Roethlisberger)? We think so. But even if Big Ben sidelined again, the mobile, strong-armed Dennis Dixon was promising and poised enough in Baltimore to be trusted enough vs. a team like Oakland, with its frequent breakdowns. Raiders have been held to 10 points or fewer 6 times in 11 games TY. Steeler vets will remember 2006 loss at Oakland. (06-OAKLAND +9 20-13...SR: Oakland 12-11)

UNDER THE TOTAL Houston 20 - JACKSONVILLE 13—Houston has invented all kinds of ways to lose in 2009, including a last-minute fumble when going in for the tying TD in first meeting vs. Jacksonville in Week Three. But the Texan defense is a meaner platoon than it was in September (allowing about 150 ypg fewer since), and the Jags’ offense displayed inefficiencies once more at S.F., when under-siege QB David Garrard was sacked 6 times. “Last chance saloon” for Matt Schaub & Co. (now 5-6) to stay on periphery of wild- card chase; note Jags just 2-11 vs. line as host since LY. Houston “under” 6 of last 8 this season. (09-Jack. 31-HOU. 24...J.24-23 J.31/184 H.22/111 H.26/35/1/286 J.18/30/0/214 J.1 H.1) (08-JAC. 30-Hou. 27 (OT)...H.23-21 J.25/139 H.23/79 H.29/40/0/307 J.23/32/0/236 J.0 H.0) (08-HOU. 30-Jack. 17...J.21-18 H.26/126 J.26/126 J.25/35/1/262 H.14/25/1/200 H.0 J.2) (09-Jack. +4 31-24; 08-JACK. -7 30-27 (OT), HOUSTON -3 30-17...SR: Houston 8-7)

Tennessee 23 - INDIANAPOLIS 20—Indy continues to cut it close, and the Colts’ can tie the Belichick/Brady Patriots’ record of 21 straight regular- season wins here. However, Peyton Manning & Co. have been very formful vs. the line, with their 6-0 spread record on the road TY countered by their unimpressive mark at Lucas Oil Stadium (1-4 vs. line in ‘09; 4-9 since moving in a year ago). Tennessee is a different team today than it was when laboring with Kerry Collins at QB in 31-9 loss vs. Indy at Nashville Oct. 11. Chris Johnson (1396 YR) liable to break a long run each week, and V.Y. rediscovering his old Longhorn magic in current 5-game Titan uptick.
(09-Indy 31-TENN. 9...I.23-12 T.21/90 I.23/58 I.36/44/1/309 T.19/35/1/155 I.1 T.1) (08-TENN. 31-Indy 21...T.23-19 I.22/94 T.31/88 I.26/41/2/223 T.24/37/0/193 T.0 I.0) (08-INDY 23-Tenn. 0...I.21-8 I.27/121 T.18/83 I.29/37/0/269 T.11/17/0/42 I.0 T.0) (09-Indy -4 31-9; 08-TENN. -4 31-21, INDY +3 23-0...SR: Indianapolis 17-13)

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Gold Sheet Extra

NFL Releases:

TENNESSEE
The Indianapolis Colts have been a formful pointspread team this season, dynamite vs. the number on the road (where they’re 6-0 vs. the spread), but underachieving at Lucas Oil Stadium, where they’ve covered just 1 of 5 (and a mere 4 of 13 since last season). That “dog in Colt games” trend supports the case for visiting Tennessee in Sunday’s AFC South battle. And the Titans have been hot, winning and covering five straight entering Sunday’s clash.

MINN.-ARIZONA “OVER”
“Totals” trends indicate to look “over” when Minnesota invades the desert to face Arizona in a Sunday night NFC showdown. The Vikings have gone “over” 10 of their last1 4 on road, while the cards are “over” 13-4 their last 17 at Glendale.