MTi’s Newsletter Side Play
4-Star – Tampa Bay +6’ over CAROLINA – Matt Moore is in for Jake Delhomme this week, which is good news for the Panthers. However, this is a lot of points to lay to an improving team that is still undervalued after their 0-7 start and their current three game losing streak. We had an NFL Future on Tampa Bay under 10 wins for the season, but that was because their schedule was brutal and we did not like the coaching change. However, Josh Freeman has this team believing in themselves. Last week, Freeman was 20-of-29 with to TDs and no INTs against the Falcons. Atlanta needed a late TD to win 20-17. We like the Bucs plus this big number against a Panthers’ team that was expecting so much more this season.
Tampa Bay is a very nice 7-0 ATS (+10.6 ppg) as a road dog the week after a straight up loss in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. Also, the Bucs are 7-0 ATS vs a team that has rushed the ball at least 30 times per game season-to-date, as long as they are not getting more than ten points. The lone active date this season came when they lost 23-25 to the Dolphins on a last second field goal as a significant road dog.
Because of their emphasis on the running game, the Panthers have a hard time covering a big number. As soon as they get a useful lead, they run the ball to keep the clock moving. This allows their oppo- nent to stay within the number. This has been especially true when the Panthers are between road games. Specifically, Carolina is 0-7 ATS (-11.3 ppg) as a home favorite between away games, including 2-5 straight up. In their lone active date this season, the Panthers lost 20-9 to the Bills as a TD favorite.
In addition, the Panthers are 0-6 ATS (-13.7 ppg) as a home favorite vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road — losing each of the last five straight up by at least a touchdown. Yikes.
Finally, we have a league-wide system that has been perfect for four seasons now. It involves a team that is off a loss as a big dog in which they were leading after three-quarters. Contrary to popular to popular opinion, these types of close losses are motivating, not discouraging. In fact, the linesmakers have been underestimating these teams for some time now. The league is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 2005 on the road after a loss as a TD+ dog against a divisional opponent in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The last winner in this situation came last week when the Redskins lost 27-24 to the Eagles as a 9’ point dog the week after nearly upsetting the Cowboys in Dallas.
Matt Moore is getting way too much respect here. Josh Freeman has yet to convince the linesmakers. Grab the points and consider a moneyline play.
MTi’s FORECAST: Tampa Bay 20 CAROLINA 13

MTi’s Newsletter Totals Play
4-Star — New Orleans at Washington OVER 47’ — The Redskins have had two battles against their most hated divisional rivals over the past two weeks. Two weeks ago, their defense was at it’s finest, and held the Cowboys scoreless over most of the game before losing 7-6 as a bog dog. Last week they battled the Eagles in Philadelphia, just losing 27-24. Their defense should be completely tapped out here and offer very little resistance vs the Saints. We have a 25-0 OU system for just this occasion. It reads, “Teams that are 500 or worse on the season are 25-0 OU since week 7, 2004 as a home dog vs a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks.”

The SDQL for this system is:
HD and WP<=50 and NDIV and pIV and ppIV and NB and p:NB and 20041024<=date

The reasoning for the system is clear. A team that is below 500 needs to be focusing more on gaining respect within their division. After battling divisional opponents for two straight weeks, they do not have much left vs a non-divisional opponent — especially if they are the dog.
The Saints are off a 38-17 win over the Patriots in which they made New England look terrible. We see no reason for them to slow down here. New Orleans is 12-0 OU as a road favorite versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up win at home, eclipsing the OU line by an average of 15.1 ppg. This team trend is 2-0 OU THIS season. In addition, the Saints are 9-0 OU as a favorite on Sunday when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. This team trend has had two active dates this season. In the first, the Saints beat the Eagles 48-22 with the OU line at 46’. In the second, the Saints beat the Dolphins 46-34 with the OU line at 47’. Nice.
Drew Brees was a super-efficient 18-of-23 against the Patriots last Monday for five TDs and no INTs. This, not surprisingly, points to the OVER. New Orleans is 8-0 OU as a road favorite when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week at home as a favorite, flying over by an average of 19.1 ppg.
Also, the Saints are 7-0 OU (+19.6 ppg) as a favorite when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 as a home favorite. All we need is for the Redskins to put a few points on the board to prevent the Saints from going into kill-the-clock mode.
MTi’s FORECAST: New Orleans 38 Washington 20

SBB’s Newsletter Top Side
4-STAR Tampa Bay (+6.5) over CAROLINA- Since the Buccaneers have inserted Josh Freeman into the lineup four weeks ago, the Bucs have been a very respectable team. In three of those weeks, they beat Green Bay by 10 points and lost in the final minute at Miami and Atlanta. The one hiccup was blowout loss, against the Saints, and the Bucs are certainly not the only ones that has happened too. With the Panthers having looked bad in the last two games, and a quarterback situation in disarray, the Bucs are the much safer team to take getting points in this one. This is sure a lot of points for a bad team with a young, backup quarterback likely in the lineup, to be giving.
The Bucs had the Falcons double-digit favorites on the ropes until Chris Redman found Roddy White for the game winning touchdown strike on fourth-and-goal in the final minute. The League is 11-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since September 25, 2005 on the road after a loss as a TD+ dog against a divisional opponent in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter (A and p:L and 7<=p:line and pIV and 0 Carolina is a run first team The Buccaneers are 9-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since December 17, 2006 when their opponent’s season-to- date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30 and average between 60 and 64 runs+passes (team=Buccaneers and 30=Average(o:rushe s+oasses@o:team and season)>=60 and 20061217<=date).
Carolina was on the road last week in a 17-6 loss to the Jets and will be again next week at New England. The Panthers are 0-9 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since December 24, 2005 at home between away games (team=Panthers and H and p:A and n:A and 20051224<=date).
The Buccaneers, led by Freeman, completed 20-of-29 for 250 yards and 2 TDs. This was a great improvement over their 53% season-to-date average. Tampa Bay is 7-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since September 15, 1991 on the road the week after a straight up loss in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average (team=Buccaneers and A and p:L and Average((100.*p:completions)@team and season and p:season=season)/Average((passes)@team and season and p:season =season)+10<=100.*p:completions/passes and 19910915<=date).
Carolina desperately needed wins the last two weeks to get into the playoff picture and couldn’t do it. Now at 4-7, the Panthers are dead and buried. With New England, Minnesota, the NY Giants, and New
Orleans to close the season, there is no way they could win out and they know it. Expect a lethargic effort from a team which has given up against a team that in the Bucs that is trying week in and week out. SBB PREDICTION: Tampa Bay 17, CAROLINA 16

SportsBook Breakers’ Top Total
3-STAR Tennessee and Indianapolis Under 47 – This is not the same teams that played in week five when Indianapolis won, 31-9, on Sunday night. The Titans are refocused and energized on both sides of the ball and have momentum on their side. Expect an inspired effort on both sides which will lead to a dogfight style game.
The Titans won on the final play last week, 20-17, over Arizona. Tennessee are 0-10 OU (-11.2 ppg) since October 14, 2007 on the road after a straight up win which they ran for less than 300 yards (team=Titans and A and p:W and NB and p:RY<300 and 20071014<=date).
In that game, Vince Young truly aired the ball out for 387 yards. The Titans are 0-8 OU (-8.4 ppg) since December 04, 2005 when they passed for at least 83 more yards last week than their season-to- date average (team=Titans and Average(p:PY@team and season and p:season=season)+83<=p:PY and 20051204<=date).
The Titans only punted the ball four times in that game against the Cardinals. Tennessee is 0-8-1 OU (-8.8 ppg) since September 28, 2003 after a non-conference game which they punted for times or less (team=Titans and p:conference!=po:conference and punts<=4 and 20030928<=date).
As you know, Indianapolis is 11-0 on the season. The Titans are 0-7 OU (-15.4 ppg) since December 04, 2005 on the road when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak (team=Titans and A and o:streak>=3 and 20051204<=date).
Last week, Indianapolis went well over the total of 47 in a 35-27 road win over the Texans. Indianapolis is 0-9 OU (-9.8 ppg) since November 28, 2005 after a road game which they went over by more than seven points (team=Colts and p:A and pu margin>7 and 20051128<=date).
The Colts have been playing tight, low scoring games at home for most of the season. Expect that to continue in this one.
SBB PREDICTION: Tennessee 20, INDIANAPOLIS 17