Logical Approach Newsletter

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: SEATTLE Pick 'em over San Francisco - Seattle is in a favorable situation, returning home following a 3 game road trip, capped by a satisfying win over lowly St Louis. It was the Seahawks' first road win of the season. They are 3-2 at home and seek to avenge a 23-10 week two loss at San Francisco. The 49ers have won just once in 5 road games and that came in week one at Arizona. They were competitive in 3 of the losses but were unable to hold second half leads. The 49ers have faint Wild Card hopes at 5-6 but a Seattle win would have the teams tied with 5-7 records. When healthy Seattle has the much better offense and the 'Hawks are as healthy now as they've been most of the season. These teams are quite similar in many statistical categories. Neither team has been able to rush the ball well on offense. Both teams are pretty average defensively. Seattle does have a solid QB edge with Hasselbeck vs Smith and that should be the difference between two evenly matched teams. Seattle wins 27-20.

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CINCINNATI - 13 over Detroit - The Bengals are closing in on a Divisional title but only one of their 8 wins has been by more than 10 points. Conversely, 7 of Detroit's 9 losses have been by at least a dozen points so something must give. Cincinnati has held their last 7 foes to under 100 yards rushing and will face a rookie QB in Detroit's Stafford. The Lions are - 7 in turnover margin over their last 4 games and barely showed up in their Turkey Day home loss to Green Bay. Cincinnati's been winning with defense. The turnaround began last season. Despite starting 0-8 they did not quit and ended the season with 3 straight wins. Although they came against a trio of weak teams, Cincy allowed just 19 total points, a sign that pointed to potential improvement in 2009. Now Cincinnati's allowed the fewest points in the NFL through 11 games. After last week's dull effort vs. Cleveland, expect a much better showing from the offense. Cincinnati wins handily, 27-6.

CHICAGO - 9 over St Louis - The 1-10 Rams failed to take advantage of a very favorable situation last week when they fell at home to Seattle, a team that had been badly outplayed in losing all 5 of their previous road games. Following a Bye and 3 straight home games the Rams now take to the road for the first time in over a month. Chicago's season is rapidly deteriorating and at 4-7 their Playoff hopes are all but gone following a 3-1 start. QB Cutler has failed to live up to billing and the running game has been a bust. The Rams are now being led by backup QB Boller who had an undistinguished career in Baltimore. The Bears have played a tough schedule and against teams similar to the Rams they routed Detroit and Cleveland by a combined 78-30. Although the Rams' lone win came on the road in Detroit and they were competitive in losses at both Washington and Jacksonville, St Louis was shut out in losses at Seattle and San Francisco, teams pretty much on a par with the Bears. It may not be pretty but it should be a convincing win. Chicago wins 27-13.

GREEN BAY - 3 over Baltimore (Monday Night) - Green Bay has won 3 straight and now controls an NFC Wild Card at 7-4. Baltimore's OT win over Pittsburgh last week got the Ravens to 6-5 and in contention for an AFC Wild Card, making this a game with significant Playoff implications. Baltimore has struggled on offense over the past month, failing to top 20 points in any of their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in 5 of their first 7. The Packers have done a better job of protecting QB Rodgers the past two weeks, allowing just 3 sacks after giving up 41 in their first 9 games. Green Bay has the NFL's top ranked defense, allowing just 282 yards per game while also having the # 6 offense. The Packers also lead the league by having lost just 10 turnovers all season and the defense is # 2 in takeaways. Baltimore struggled more than expected last week in their physical OT win over Pittsburgh. And this season teams are just 3-6 straight up and 2-7 ATS after playing the Steelers with 5 of the losses by double digits. Green Bay wins 27-17.