League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 22.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.1
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
Denver -4.5 KANSAS CITY 38
Denver rolled over the Giants last week, out rushing them only 3.6ypr to 3.5ypr but 138-57. They out passed the Giants 8.1yps to 4.9yps and out gained them overall, 5.4yppl to 4.5yppl. KC was smoked at SD, although they did out rush the Chargers 5.0ypr to 2.8ypr but were out passed 11.4yps to 5.0yps and out gained overall 6.8yppl to 5.0yppl. Denver is average on offense, gaining just 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl but they have been very good on defense, allowing just 3.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.5yps against 6.5yps and 4.8yppl against 5.4yyppl. KC has really struggled on offense, gaining just 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.9yps against 6.0yps and 4.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 7.5yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. KC qualifies in a couple of bounce back situations based on their poor performance last week, which are 49-19-1 and 73-33-1. Denver qualifies in a couple of fundamental situations, which are 555-421-30 and 462-303-21. Numbers favor Denver by 10.5 points and predict about 40 points. While the situations go both ways, the value certainly lies in Denver’s favor. They are clearly the better team on both sides of the ball. KC has taken Dallas and Pittsburgh to OT at home (winning one and losing one) but they were dominated in both of those games. Turnovers and kick returns kept them in those games. Denver has struggled recently although they got back on track last week. But, during those struggles, they played a bunch of good teams. The only below .500 team they played during that stretch was at Washington, who has a very good defense. Denver was controlling that game until Kyle Orton left with an injury. The two games against bad teams Denver has played this year, they have won by 21 and 20 points. Meanwhile, KC has played four good teams at home this year and lost by 11, 6, 30 and won by 3 points. Again, in the six and three point games, they were dominated by turnovers kept them in those games. In those games, KC was getting 11, 9, 7 and 6 points so the line is way down for another quality opponent. Better offense and better defense with plenty of value. KC has allowed at least 24 points in all of those home games, while Denver hasn’t allowed more than six points against the two really anemic offenses they have faced this year. DENVER 26 KANSAS CITY 10
PITTSBURGH -14.5 Oakland 37
Oakland was blown out at Dallas as they were out rushed 7.8ypr to 5.2ypr, out passed 9.6yps to 4.8yps and out gained overall 8.8yppl to 4.9yppl. Pittsburgh put up a gutsy performance at Baltimore without Roethlisberger and were one fourth down stop from probably winning the game. They were out rushed 4.6ypr to 4.0ypr, out passed 6.5yps to 5.6yps and out gained overall 5.7yppl to 4.7yppl. Oakland has gone with Gradkowski the last two weeks and at least their offense has been better than terrible. They still average just 4.3yps against 6.0yps and 4.2yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense allows 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.0yps against 6.5yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. Pittsburgh has been very good throwing the ball this year and they will get Roethlisberger back this week. They average 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl overall. The defense is good once again, allowing just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.5yps against 6.0yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 17.5 points and predict about 34 points. Pittsburgh may play this game conservatively to make sure Roethlisberger doesn’t get hurt but they could easily cover this game doing just that. PITTSBURGH 24 OAKLAND 10
JACKSONVILLE PK Houston 46.5
Jacksonville lost badly at SF last week, 20-3, but out gained them in all areas, out rushing them 5.1ypr to 2.6ypr, out passed them 6.2yps to 5.7yps and overall, 5.9yppl to 4.7yppl. Houston out gained Indy 5.8yppl to 5.7yppl but had three turnovers to two for Indy and those turnovers were all crucial turnovers that really hampered their chances to win the game. Houston struggles to run the ball, averaging just 3.4ypr against 4.2ypr but they do average 7.2yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl overall. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Jacksonville rushes the ball extremely well, averaging 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow, however, 6.9yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They will be without CB Mathis again this week. Jacksonville qualifies in a couple of fundamental situations, which are 555-421-30 and 462-303-21. Numbers favor Houston by two points before accounting for the situations and predict about 47 points. I’d like to play Jacksonville here because of the situations, but I have my doubts about how good Jacksonville is. These two have totaled 54 and 57 the last two times they have played here. Both offenses are above average and both defenses are below average. Weather should be fine. The over looks like a good opportunity. JACKSONVILLE 30 HOUSTON 27
INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 Tennessee 46.5
Colts fell behind 17-0 but got a couple of stops on defense and let their offense get them back in the game and then crucial turnovers sealed the Texans fate. Indy was out gained slightly, 5.8yppl to 5.7yppl. Tennessee needed a late rally from Vince Young to win 20-17. The Titans out gained Arizona 7.1ypr to 3.8ypr, 7.9yps to 6.8yps and 7.6yppl to 5.6yppl. The Colts still don’t run the ball well, averaging just 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr but they do average 7.7yps against 6.5yps and 6.3yppl against 5.6yppl. The defense is still holding itself together even with all the injuries. They allow just 5.6yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. Tennessee has been running the ball well all year, averaging 5.4ypr against 4.3ypr but they are now almost average throwing the ball with the recent success they have had the past few weeks. They now average 6.0yps against 6.1yps, which is a huge improvement over the first part of the season. Overall, on offense, they average 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense allows 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl but they have gotten much better the past few weeks as they have gotten healthy. Indianapolis qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 49-15-1. Tennessee qualifies in a couple of fundamental situations, which are 555-421-30 and 462-303-21 as well as 157-77-7. Numbers, however, favor Indy by a whopping 14.5 points and predict about 50 points. Tennessee has played extremely well the last five weeks with Vince Young at quarterback. I would like to take them in this game but the value is clearly with Indianapolis and the situations go both ways. I’ll call for a seven point victory and let the line decide which way I lean. INDIANAPOLIS 28 TENNESSEE 21
Philadelphia -5.5 ATLANTA 43.5
Philly struggled to defeat Washington 27-24 but they out gained the Redskins. They out rushed them 4.2ypr to 3.3ypr, out passed them 6.8yps to 5.8yps and overall, 5.7yppl to 4.8yppl. Atlanta managed to overcome the loss of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner with a final minute win. Atlanta only managed to average 2.9ypr against a bad TB rush defense. They did hold TB to just 2.8ypr but they allowed TB to throw for 7.9yps and averaged just 4.4yps themselves. Overall, they were out gained 5.6yppl to 3.9yppl and were sacked six times by TB. Philly averages 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr and 6.5yps against 6.1yps for a total of 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They will be without Brian Westbrook again this week as well as DeJean Jackson. On defense, they allow just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.3yps against 6.1yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl. Atlanta will most likely be without Matt Ryan and Michael Turner this week. They average just 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl as they have really struggled on offense the past few weeks. They allow 7.0yps against 6.1yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Philly qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 462-303-21. Numbers favor Philly by three points (not accounting for the Atlanta injuries) and predict about 53 points. Atlanta has played four good teams with Matt Ryan at quarterback this year and lost three of those four games by at least eight points and the other game by three points. To be fair, all of those games were on the road. They should do better this week with Chris Redman having a full week to practice but I still have to believe it is going to be difficult for Atlanta to move the ball on a good Philly defense and stop a good Philly offense from scoring, despite the fact Philly is missing two of their best offensive players. PHILADELPHIA 28 ATLANTA 17
CINCINNATI -13 Detroit 42
Cincinnati didn’t destroy Cleveland but they did enough to win and controlled the line of scrimmage. They out gained the Browns, 4.7ypr to 3.2ypr (including 210 yards rushing), 3.6yps to 3.1yps and overall 4.3ypr to 3.1ypr. Detroit was dominated by GB, as they were out passed 8.6yps to 4.4yps and overall, 6.3yppl to 4.0yppl. They also turned the ball over five times to just twice for GB. Detroit continues to sport terrible numbers. They gain just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.1yps against 5.9yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl. They defense allows 7.6yps against 5.4yps and 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl. Cincinnati averages just 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Detroit qualifies in late season letdown situation, which is 103-57-2. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 15.5 points and predict about 45 points. I’d like to consider Cincinnati here but they simply don’t blow out teams unless it is Chicago. The underdog is 11-0 ATS in Cincinnati games. They haven’t scored more than 18 points in their last four games, all wins. Detroit has given up at least 26 points in every road game this year so no reason to think their defense will show up in this game, even against a Cincinnati team that doesn’t score a lot of points. CINCINNATI 30 DETROIT 17
New Orleans -9.5 WASHINGTON 47.5
The Saints were incredible on Monday night in destroying NE. They out passed NE 15.3yps to 5.8yps and overall, 9.6yppl to 5.2yppl. Washington had Philly on the ropes for most of the game and lost by only three points, 27-24, but they were out gained badly. They were out rushed 4.2ypr to 3.3ypr, out passed 6.8yps to 5.8yps and overall, 5.7yppl to 4.8yppl. The Saints continue to be dominant on offense as they average 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr (151 yards per game), 8.4yps against 6.3yps and 6.6yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense they have been about average, allowing 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. The Redskins continue to be hit with key injuries and the offense has been below average just about all year. They average just 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl but the pass defense has been good, allowing just 5.5yps against 5.9yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor NO by 12 points and predict about 47 points. Washington has only scored more than 17 points in two games this year but those two games were two of the last three games. They also have only had one game where they have lost by more than 10 points. The Saints have scored at least 24 points in every game this year and 28 or more in 9 of their 11 games. I’ll lean towards Washington but it is a weak lean. NEW ORLEANS 30 WASHINGTON 21
CAROLINA -6 Tampa Bay 39.5
TB lost in the final seconds of last weeks game at Atlanta and they deserved to win that game. They out passed Atlanta, 7.9yps to 4.4yps and overall, 5.6yppl to 3.9yppl. They also sacked Atlanta six times. Carolina was terrible at the Jets in losing 17-6. They were out rushed 3.6ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed badly, 6.9yps to 2.8yps and overall 4.7yppl to 2.9yppl. Jake Delhomme threw four interceptions and he will miss this weeks game. TB averages just 5.1yps against 5.9yps and 4.7yppl against 5.2ypp. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.8yps against 6.4yps and 5.7yppl against 5.6yppl. Carolina still rushes the ball well, averaging 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is still playing well, allowing just 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. Carolina qualifies in a couple of fundamental situations, which are 555-421-30 and 462-303-21. Numbers favor Carolina by 8.5 points. I’m not going to guess which Carolina team we get this week. I’ll lean to the situations and call for a Carolina cover. CAROLINA 24 TAMPA BAY 17
CHICAGO -8.5 St Louis 41
The Bears were destroyed by the Vikings last week 36-10. They were out rushed 159-43 and 4.7ypr to 3.9ypr, out passed 378-126 and 7.7yps to 4.7yps and overall 537-169 and 6.5yppl to 4.4yppl. The Rams lost at home to Seattle but they out gained Seattle 4.7yppl to 4.6yppl. They were out rushed 5.5ypr to 4.0ypr but out passed them 5.0yps to 3.7yps. The Rams average 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr but just 5.2yps against 6.1yps for a total of 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. Stephen Jackson is still banged up and questionable for this week. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. As bad as they Bears have been as of late, they have a chance against the Rams defense. Chicago averages just 5.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is also falling apart, as they now allow 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. The Rams qualify in a general situation, which is 51-22-1, while the Bears qualify in a letdown situation, which is 88-42-4 and plays against Chicago here. Numbers favor Chicago by 9.5 points and predict about 39 points. The situations lie in the Rams favor and Chicago isn’t playing good football but they have played two horrible teams at home this year and defeated Detroit by 24 points and Cleveland by 24 points. I’ll side with the Rams because of the situations but never like taking such a bad defense on the road. CHICAGO 24 ST LOUIS 17
San Diego -13.5 CLEVELAND 42.5
Chargers destroyed KC last week 43-14. They were out rushed 5.0ypr to 2.8ypr but out passed the Chiefs 11.4yps to 5.0yps and overall, 6.8yppl to 5.8yppl. Cleveland managed a cover at Cincinnati but they were out played and their offense went back to the dreadful state it has been in six week 11 of last year. They gained just 3.2ypr and allowed Cincinnati 4.7ypr, including 210 yards. They were out passed 3.6yps to 3.1yps and out gained overall 4.3yppl to 3.1yppl. The Chargers are on a roll despite their inability to rush the ball. They average just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr but 7.6yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They defense has been about average, allowing 5.1yppl against 5.0yppl. Cleveland, is of course, terrible and there are no signs they will improve. They also lost Shaun Rodgers for the year last week. They average just 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 4.1yps against 6.0yps and 3.9yppl against 5.1yppl. They defense is almost as bad, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SD by 13.5 points and predicts about 45 points. SD has scored at least 23 points in every game but one this year (21 points in the other game), while Cleveland has scored more than 20 points just once this year – against the Lions. Cleveland has played three teams at home this year with good offenses and lost by at least 14 points in each of those games with an average loss of 19 points. SD has played one game on the road this year against real poor teams and won that game by 30 points. SAN DIEGO 31 CLEVELAND 14
SEATTLE PK San Francisco 41.5
Seattle rushed for 170 yards last week at the Rams, as they averaged 5.5ypr to just 4.0ypr to a good Rams rushing team that was playing with an injured Stephen Jackson. They were out passed by the Rams, 5.0yps to 3.7yps and out gained overall 4.7yppl to 4.6yppl. SF defeated Jacksonville rather easily, 20-3, but they were out gained in that game. Jacksonville out gained SF 5.1ypr to 2.6ypr, out passed them 6.2yps to 5.7yps and overall, 5.9yppl to 4.7yppl. SF averages just 5.3yps against 6.3yps and 4.9yppl against 5.5yppl. But, Alex Smith is improved the passing offense since starting at quarterback as well as Michael Crabtree at receiver. The defense allows just 3.6ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. Seattle averages just 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.6yps against 6.4yps and 4.9yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense allows 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. The 49ers qualify in a couple of fundamental situations, which are 555-421-30 and 462-303-21. Numbers favor SF by .5 point and predict about 39 points. SF went here last year and won 33-30. Seattle has won four games this year, two against the Rams, one against the Lions and one against Jacksonville. SF’s losses have come against good teams this year – Minnesota, Atlanta, Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Green Bay. While Atlanta and Houston aren’t great teams, they are better than Seattle. Better offense now that they have opened up their offense, better defense and solid situations in their favor. SAN FRANCISCO 23 SEATTLE 16
Minnesota -3 ARIZONA 48
The Vikings were dominant in their win over the Bears last week, 36-10. They out rushed Chicago, 159-43 at 4.7ypr to 3.9ypr, out passed them 378-126 at 7.7yps to 4.7yps and overall, 537-169 at 6.5yppl to 4.4yppl. Arizona lost on the last play of the game at Tennessee without Kurt Warner. While the game was close, they were out gained badly, 7.1ypr to 3.8ypr, 7.9yps to 6.8yps and overall, 7.6yppl to 5.6yppl. The Vikings continue to get better and better on offense. They now average 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.2yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They defense allows 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl but they also continue to get better. Arizona is averaging 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Kurt Warner will be a game time decision in this game. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Minnesota by three points and predict about 50 points. I just don’t see how the Cards can win this game. They haven’t defeated a good team all year long, with only three games against above .500 teams and 2-1 record against those teams, while being blown out by the best team they faced, Indianapolis. Minnesota hasn’t played a bunch of good teams either but they are 2-1 against Green Bay and Pittsburgh and really out played Pittsburgh but turnovers did them in. They have scored at least 27 points in every game but the Pittsburgh game this year. You can just about mark them down for 27-35 points a game. Arizona has scored more than 28 points in just three games this year. Add in the fact Kurt Warner may not play and I think the only way to look here is Minnesota. I would consider the over but need Warner to play before I would bet it. MINNESOTA 30 ARIZONA 21
Dallas -2.5 NY GIANTS 45.5
Cowboys smoked Oakland last week 24-7. They out rushed Oakland 7.8ypr to 5.2pr, out passed them 9.6yps to 4.8yps and overall, 8.8yppl to 4.9yppl. The Giants were beaten badly at Denver, 26-6. They were out passed 8.1yps to 4.9yps and overall out gained 5.4yppl to 4.5yppl. Dallas averages 5.3ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.3yps against 6.2yps and 6.4yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense allows 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. The Giants average 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They defense allows 5.7yps against 6.3yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. The Giants qualify in a bounce back situation, which is 73-33-1 as well as a 52-25-1 bounce back situation. Numbers favor the Giants by .5 point and predict about 48 points. I’ll lean with what seems to be the better team right now. But, must note Dallas has played three decent teams on the road this year and scored 10, 20 and 7 points for an average of about 12 points so their offense has struggled against good teams on the road. DALLAS 24 NY GIANTS 21
New England -3.5 MIAMI 45.5
NE was destroyed last week at NO and no surprise here as they have not fared well on the road this year against good competition. They were out passed a whopping 15.3yps to 5.8yps and out gained overall 9.6yppl to 5.2yppl. Miami lost at Buffalo and the final numbers were not good but that game was much closer than the final indicated. They were out gained 5.2ypr to 4.2ypr, 6.5yps to 5.1yps and overall 5.9yppl to 4.6yppl. They were out scored 24-0 in the fourth quarter but the game got away from them in the last four minutes. Buffalo made a 56 yard field to go up by three points with less than four minutes left. Had they not made that field goal, Miami would have had great field position to win the game. Instead they fell behind and it only got worse as they tried to play catch up in the last four minutes. Patriots average 7.1yps against 6.0yps and 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense now allows 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl after last weeks debacle. Miami still rushes the ball well, gaining 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.0yps against 5.8yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr but 6.7yps against 6.4yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Miami qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 130-68-5 and 462-303-21. Numbers favor NE by five points and predict about 50 points. The situations support Miami but the value isn’t even close to favoring Miami. I don’t understand this line. NE has lost four games on the road this year (actually all four at visitor sites – TB was a neutral field) but all four of those teams are better than Miami. Miami has lost the last two years here by 19 and 20 points, while both of those games totaled at least 76 points. I don’t think Miami wins this game but they have scored at least 23 points in every home game this year. NE has scored at least 25 points in all but three of their games. All three of those games were on the road but all against good defensive teams or in the case of last Monday night, Tom Brady was pulled once they were so far behind. NEW ENGLAND 31 MIAMI 27
Sixth Sense 12/6
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