Texas may be deserving of being in the National Championship Game if they win this game, but they are not deserving of being a 14 point favorite against the one of the best defensive teams in the nation in what should be a low scoring game. Nebraska has allowed just 4.2 yards per play this season (to teams that would combine to 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team and the Cornhuskers have allowed just 11 points per game. Texas Tech managed to score 31 points against the Huskers, but 7 of that was a defensive touchdown on a fumble return and the Red Raiders only averaged 4.5 yppl in that game, so that point total is misleading. The Cornhuskers also allowed just 4.3 yppl and 16 points on the road against a good Virginia Tech attack and held other good offensive teams Missouri and Kansas to 2.9 yppl and 12 points and 4.8 yppl and 17 points, respectively.
Texas is a good offensive team, but they are not as good as their 43 points per game averaged suggests. The Longhorns have averaged a good, but not great 6.0 yppl this season, but quarterback Colt McCoy keeps drives alive with his clutch 3rd down passing, so they're actually better offensively than the 6.0 yppl number suggests. However, the Longhorns really struggled to move the ball against good defensive teams this season and they gained just 270 total yards at 3.5 yppl against an Oklahoma defense that is on par with Nebraska's dominating stop unit. For the season Texas faced 4 good defensive teams in Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State and the Longhorns averaged a modest 4.6 yppl in those 4 games, which is average considering that those 4 teams would combine to allow 4.6 yppl to an average offensive team. The Texas attack rated at 0.7 yppl better than average overall for the season, but all they abused bad defensive teams while rating at just average against the 4 good defensive teams that they faced while also averaging just 5.2 yppl against the mediocre defenses of Baylor and Colorado. Texas did average a 33 points in those 4 games against good defensive teams, but their offense only averaged 26 points, as the Horns scored on a punt return against Texas Tech, scored on a blocked punt against Missouri, and scored two non-offensive touchdowns against Oklahoma State. On the season Texas scored 11 non-offensive touchdowns, which is off the charts and is not something that is likely to continue in this game, especially considering that my special teams rating for Nebraska is actually better than my special teams rating for Texas. The Cornhuskers didn't allow any special teams touchdowns and allowed just one interception return TD and that 82 yard fumble return TD to Texas Tech when they didn't realize it was a lateral instead of a foward pass. In other words, I don't expect Texas to score their standard one non-offensive touchdown in this game. Nebraska's defense will pose a huge problem for Texas in this game and they're likely going to have to earn their points.
While the Texas offense is likely to struggle moving the ball in this game, the Cornhuskers will also have a tough time against a Texas defense that is actually 0.1 yppl better than Nebraska's dominating defense, as the Longhorns rate at 1.4 yppl better than average on defense (using only the stats when Texas' starters are playing). Nebraska is only 0.2 yppl better than average offensively with quarterback Zac Lee at the controls and my math model projects just 235 total yards at 4.2 yppl for the Huskers in this game. The Cornhuskers also faced 4 good defensive teams (Virginia Tech, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma) and they were 0.1 yppl worse than average in those teams when Lee was at quarterback (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 4.6 yppl to an average team). However, that's only 0.2 yppl worse than normal while the Texas offense was 0.7 yppl worse than their normal level when facing good defensive teams.
My math model favors Texas by just 10 points in this game and using a compensated points model with adjustments only favors the Longhorns by 12 points and that includes some of the luck they've had with non-offensive touchdowns this season. I'll call for a fair line of 11 points in this game and that doesn't even take into account how much worse the Texas offense has been, relatively, against good defensive teams. If 11 is the fair line then Nebraska has a profitable 57.7% chance of covering at +14 1/2 points (56.4% at +14 and 54.6% at +13 1/2) and I'll take Nebraska in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more
Dr Bob NFL Anyone??
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