Ai Simulator 10* graded play on East Carolina as they take on Houston set to start at 12:00 EST. This is the Conference USA Championship game. AiS shows an 85% probability that ECU will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Houston need help getting here from SMU and now they have to play on the road at the defending conference champs home field. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-9 against the MONEY LINE for 76% success and made 243 units since 2004. Play on a home team versus the money line off 2 straight wins against conference rivals with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. Here is a 2nd money line system hitting 72% winners since 1999 making 43.2 units. Play against a road team versus the money line off a home win against a conference rival facing an opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. AiS shows an 88% probability that ECU will score 28 or more points. Note that Houston is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. ECU is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Houston is also 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons; s 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Houston defense is among the nation's worst in giving up 445.2 yards and it has also allowed 28.0 points per game. The Cougars have especially struggled against the run (218.2 ypg) and that gives East Carolina senior Dominique Lindsay q fantastic opportunity to dominate in Saturday's game. Remember, some guy names Chris Johnson, who now plays for the Tennessee Titans? Well, he was at ECU in 2007 so the coaches know the complete running game. Take ECU.
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they host Cincinnati set to start at Noon EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that Pitt will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 62% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 20-6 against the money line making 16.8 units since 1992. The average play has been a +114 dog which matches the line for this game. Play on a home team versus the money line off a loss against a conference rival and in a game involving two top-level teams sporting win percentages of >= 80%. Pitt has a 90% probability of gaining 7.5 to 8 net passing yards in this game. Cincinnati is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Pitt’s running game will dominate the Bearcats defensive front. This in turn will set-up high percentage pass opportunities in the spread and play action pass sets. Take Pittsburgh.
John Ryan 12/5
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