[joey]

4* #728 MISSISSIPPI over SOUTHERN MISS

There will be a much different Ole Miss team on the floor than the one that lost to Southern Miss LY, when Chris Warren, Eniel Ploynice and Trevor Gaskins could only sit and watch because of injuries. This will also be a much different Golden Eagle squad than the one that got that win. And it all lays out for a decisive payback win from an under-rated team, and a coach that is ideal to lay this pointspread range with, since he insists on 40 minutes of hard play every game.That coach is Andy Kennedy, who is 13-7 ATS laying double figures since taking over the Rebel program. This is not the day for that pattern to change. With legitimate talent all through his deep rotation (nine players are averaging at least 11 minutes per game), Kennedy can stay on the gas with a variety of combinations. The chance for Terrico White and Chris Warren to play together is producing just what they had hoped, with scoring averages of 17.3 and 17.1, and how nice is it to have contributors like Murphy Holloway’s 13.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, and Polynice’s 9.0 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists, coming from players that do not start? This is also a team more than ready to step up to this challenge, having faced tough competition at San Juan last weekend, then also getting an easy road win at Arkansas State after returning to the mainland. With nothing on deck until soft touch McNeese State next Saturday, there is nothing in the way of a revenge rout in this one.Southern Miss is certainly not in the way. Here is how Larry Eustachy previews a campaign in which he only has three returnees to his playing rotation <i>”The season will be over too quick, but the positive is we’ll only lose a couple guys and not real key guys.”</i> For Eustachy it is all about trying to get the pieces to fit together, and the schedule has not helped the process – while Ole Miss was playing four lined games since Thanksgiving, all the Golden Eagles have done in the last 11 days was have a home walkover vs. Spring Hill. Having a pair of 6-0 G’s in Angelo Johnson and R. L. Horton in the starting lineup means defensive problems against those explosive Rebel guards, and we would not be surprised if there were not several crescendo runs by the home team to break this wide open.

4* #717 ORLANDO over GOLDEN STATE

With so few pieces to work with, there are some nights that it just can not happen for these Warriors, who have already lost eight games by 13 points or more. This is one of those nights. The biggest advantage that a weak team can have is for the opposiition to come in flat and not take them seriously, and that is not going to be the case in this one.Otlando will be as fresh as any Golden State opponent since the opening night of the season. The Warriors are only played for the second time in six days, the previous game being an easy coast vs. the Knicks, and they have had three full days to prepare for the particular antics that they will face. There is also no look-ahead, with nothing up until a game against the Clippers on Tuesday. And for some of the Magic there is even an added level of focus, with Michael Pietrus and Matt Barnes having played for the Warriors not too long ago, and Stan Van Gundy also having a “homecoming”, after growing up 20 miles from here in Martinez (his take - "I still enjoy going because it's one of the very few places I actually see friends and things like that. So, I always see people I know, and that's good. When I first went back there as an assistant coach with the Heat walking into the Coliseum was huge for me. It was big."</i>)With the right energy and focus, Orlando can fully exploit monster mismatches in terms of rebounding (#6 vs. #30) and defense (#6 vs. #28), and now that Rashard Lewis is fully back in form, bringing Barnes, Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson and Martin Gortat off the bench makes the Magic one of the deepest teams in the league in terms of front-court reserves. Who is the weakest in that regard? Golden State, of course. So a fresh Orlando team can run, have fun, and attack the basket without fear to get a plethora of easy scoring opportunities. The Warriors lack the depth to counter, and eventually the will fades

4* #366 GREEN BAY over BALTIMORE

We know where we are going to be on Monday night, and because the markets are showing signs of aligning the same way we will pull the trigger now – the 3’s that are available are going to be harder to find as we get closer to kickoff.The Packers have been significantly better than the Ravens across the board, and in fact have been one of the N.F.L.’s best teams when we go through the base categories – they lead the opposition by a commanding 6:48 per game in time of possession, off of advantages of 49 first downs and 1,105 yards. They get 1.83 yards per pass more than they allow, and the rushing is 4.3 vs. 3.6. But they have not been able to show better than that 7-4 in the W/L column because of one significant weakness, the inability to protect Aaron Rodgers early in the season. Through those 11 games they have allowed an alarming 44 sacks. But as the OL developed some chemistry, and the playbook was tweaked to work around the protection issues, there are signs of real improvement, with no sacks allowed the last two games. And when Rodgers is not being sacked this passing attack brings tremendous abilities to attack down the field – he has had a passer rating of at least 108.0 in seven of the last nine games, and three different Green Bay receivers have are averaging better than 15.0 per catch with more than 20 receptions.The passing game presents a major headache for a Baltimore secondary that has struggled all season, and in the first road game since losing Fabian Washington they are even more vulnerable. To make matters worse they can not rely on the pass rush to pick up much of the slack with Terrell Suggs, who is expected to miss his third straight game, and they have not recorded a sack since he went down. And while it does look like Ed Reed will be able to go, Reed missed two days of practice this week, and is not going to be 100 percent.Do not be surprised to see a weary Baltimore team here off of those exhausting outings against the Colts and Steelers the past two weeks, while the Packers not only have the advantage of extra preparation time, but they were coasting in each of their last two outings (remember that the 30-24 win over San Francisco was at 30-10 in the fourth quarter). The edge in freshness brings an aggressive approach that can put the Raven pass defense on its heels, and leads to a convincing win

[joey]

4* #728 MISSISSIPPI over SOUTHERN MISS

There will be a much different Ole Miss team on the floor than the one that lost to Southern Miss LY, when Chris Warren, Eniel Ploynice and Trevor Gaskins could only sit and watch because of injuries. This will also be a much different Golden Eagle squad than the one that got that win. And it all lays out for a decisive payback win from an under-rated team, and a coach that is ideal to lay this pointspread range with, since he insists on 40 minutes of hard play every game.That coach is Andy Kennedy, who is 13-7 ATS laying double figures since taking over the Rebel program. This is not the day for that pattern to change. With legitimate talent all through his deep rotation (nine players are averaging at least 11 minutes per game), Kennedy can stay on the gas with a variety of combinations. The chance for Terrico White and Chris Warren to play together is producing just what they had hoped, with scoring averages of 17.3 and 17.1, and how nice is it to have contributors like Murphy Holloway’s 13.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, and Polynice’s 9.0 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists, coming from players that do not start? This is also a team more than ready to step up to this challenge, having faced tough competition at San Juan last weekend, then also getting an easy road win at Arkansas State after returning to the mainland. With nothing on deck until soft touch McNeese State next Saturday, there is nothing in the way of a revenge rout in this one.Southern Miss is certainly not in the way. Here is how Larry Eustachy previews a campaign in which he only has three returnees to his playing rotation <i>”The season will be over too quick, but the positive is we’ll only lose a couple guys and not real key guys.”</i> For Eustachy it is all about trying to get the pieces to fit together, and the schedule has not helped the process – while Ole Miss was playing four lined games since Thanksgiving, all the Golden Eagles have done in the last 11 days was have a home walkover vs. Spring Hill. Having a pair of 6-0 G’s in Angelo Johnson and R. L. Horton in the starting lineup means defensive problems against those explosive Rebel guards, and we would not be surprised if there were not several crescendo runs by the home team to break this wide open.

4* #717 ORLANDO over GOLDEN STATE

With so few pieces to work with, there are some nights that it just can not happen for these Warriors, who have already lost eight games by 13 points or more. This is one of those nights. The biggest advantage that a weak team can have is for the opposiition to come in flat and not take them seriously, and that is not going to be the case in this one.Otlando will be as fresh as any Golden State opponent since the opening night of the season. The Warriors are only played for the second time in six days, the previous game being an easy coast vs. the Knicks, and they have had three full days to prepare for the particular antics that they will face. There is also no look-ahead, with nothing up until a game against the Clippers on Tuesday. And for some of the Magic there is even an added level of focus, with Michael Pietrus and Matt Barnes having played for the Warriors not too long ago, and Stan Van Gundy also having a “homecoming”, after growing up 20 miles from here in Martinez (his take - "I still enjoy going because it's one of the very few places I actually see friends and things like that. So, I always see people I know, and that's good. When I first went back there as an assistant coach with the Heat walking into the Coliseum was huge for me. It was big."</i>)With the right energy and focus, Orlando can fully exploit monster mismatches in terms of rebounding (#6 vs. #30) and defense (#6 vs. #28), and now that Rashard Lewis is fully back in form, bringing Barnes, Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson and Martin Gortat off the bench makes the Magic one of the deepest teams in the league in terms of front-court reserves. Who is the weakest in that regard? Golden State, of course. So a fresh Orlando team can run, have fun, and attack the basket without fear to get a plethora of easy scoring opportunities. The Warriors lack the depth to counter, and eventually the will fades

4* #366 GREEN BAY over BALTIMORE

We know where we are going to be on Monday night, and because the markets are showing signs of aligning the same way we will pull the trigger now – the 3’s that are available are going to be harder to find as we get closer to kickoff.The Packers have been significantly better than the Ravens across the board, and in fact have been one of the N.F.L.’s best teams when we go through the base categories – they lead the opposition by a commanding 6:48 per game in time of possession, off of advantages of 49 first downs and 1,105 yards. They get 1.83 yards per pass more than they allow, and the rushing is 4.3 vs. 3.6. But they have not been able to show better than that 7-4 in the W/L column because of one significant weakness, the inability to protect Aaron Rodgers early in the season. Through those 11 games they have allowed an alarming 44 sacks. But as the OL developed some chemistry, and the playbook was tweaked to work around the protection issues, there are signs of real improvement, with no sacks allowed the last two games. And when Rodgers is not being sacked this passing attack brings tremendous abilities to attack down the field – he has had a passer rating of at least 108.0 in seven of the last nine games, and three different Green Bay receivers have are averaging better than 15.0 per catch with more than 20 receptions.The passing game presents a major headache for a Baltimore secondary that has struggled all season, and in the first road game since losing Fabian Washington they are even more vulnerable. To make matters worse they can not rely on the pass rush to pick up much of the slack with Terrell Suggs, who is expected to miss his third straight game, and they have not recorded a sack since he went down. And while it does look like Ed Reed will be able to go, Reed missed two days of practice this week, and is not going to be 100 percent.Do not be surprised to see a weary Baltimore team here off of those exhausting outings against the Colts and Steelers the past two weeks, while the Packers not only have the advantage of extra preparation time, but they were coasting in each of their last two outings (remember that the 30-24 win over San Francisco was at 30-10 in the fourth quarter). The edge in freshness brings an aggressive approach that can put the Raven pass defense on its heels, and leads to a convincing win

4* #726 KENTUCKY/NORTH CAROLINA Over

This one will not always be pretty to watch – there are going to be a lot of turnovers, and a lot of bodies hitting the floor scrambling after those loose balls. But in a game in which the tempo will be frenetic throughout, there will be more than enough scoring opportunities to easily get past this count.As one would expect with new faces and new schemes Kentucky has chemistry issues galore, particularly in terms of team defense, but the Wildcat roster is loaded with talent, and John Calipari will enjoy the chance to unleash them in the open floor, relishing the challenge to develop against this class of competition. In their last three home games the Wildcats erupted for counts of 102, 92 and 94, and while those were vs. light-weights, it does show the confidence level they can play with when they have their hands on the ball. Of course, the fact that Sam Houston State reached 92 here at Rupp, knocking down 18 triples, shows how that defense can be exploited.The names may change in the Tar Heel uniforms, and this roster features more size than previous editions with weaker outside shooting, but there is still only one way for a Roy Williams team to play – they sprint down the floor to the offensive end as hard as any team in the land. When you have the kind of depth in the rotation he has it is a true luxury, and Williams is not afraid to throw his young talents into a high speed chase, with four FR on the court at the same time in Tuesday’s win over Michigan State. That one got to 171 on a night in which the opposition was willing to run with them, and we can look for a similar overall count to be produced in this track meet, especially with the Carolina “secondary break” finding plenty of lanes against a defense that will be caught out of position often.

[joey]

4* #760 MISSOURI over OREGON

We shifted gears with Mike Anderson and Missouri earlier this week – after the Tigers had been one of our best single-season meal tickets ever LY it was a 6* ticket with Vanderbilt on Wednesday night, when the Commodore inside game was too much for the Tigers around the basket. But we came away impressed once again with the Missouri chemistry and tenacity in the back-court – despite losing the battle of the boards 45-24, and allowing Vandy to shoot 24-41 on two-point attempts, they were still hanging around to the very end, even going on a late 11-0 run when they appeared on the verge of being blown out. And that means time get back on the Tigers here in what has become a most dynamic setting.Anderson and the Tigers are 33-0 on this court in non-conference games, winning by an average of 25.8 points, and while the reality of that is much less than those numbers, largely because of the weak schedule, it says a lot about the confidence level that they bring. That intense trapping and pressing style for the full 40 minutes becomes an intimidating factor in front of the home crowd, and as we noted so often LY it is not just frenetic energy – they play with a real sense of purpose. Even in losing at Vanderbilt that was most evident, with a solid ratio of 16 assists vs. 12 turnovers, while the Commodores were forced into 24 turnovers, and dished out only 13 assists. Now a young Oregon team brings only two upperclassmen in the playing rotation, one being SR Tajuan Porter, who sat out the last game with a sprained ankle and may not be 100 percent, and they are subject to all of the mistakes of youth in this atmosphere.Ernie Kent has some depth and quickness, and because of that has his team running and pressing as well, but they Ducks are a long way from developing, and in reality just play into Missouri’s hands here, especially without Joevan Catron and Matt Humphrey being available. Their only road game was an 88-81 loss at Portland in which the defense was exploited, and they were dumped 68-55 at home vs. Montana. Now they leave the state of the first time, and they get taken apart in the open court as the holes in their presses get exposed (from Kent - <i>”The difference being we have just become a pressing team. They have been a pressing team. … It’s more ingrained in their mentality to press and run and get after people. We’re still learning and working our way through some things.”</i>) by the precision the Tigers bring to the table. But do not look for Kent to back off – this is a developmental game for his team, which makes the scoreboard only a secondary consideration. That is a break for the coach, because it is going to be an ugly scoreboard

[joey]

6* #764 GEORGIA TECH over SOUTHERN CAL

Every once in a while a dark cloud can produce a silver lining, and
that was the case with our 4* Texas ticket going down against
Southern Cal on Thursday night. The extremely limited Trojans were
just as bad as we expected, with the lack of a true PG reducing the
offense to some ugly school-yard free lancing, and when the counting
was done they finished with a truly mind-numbing count of 17
turnovers vs. only two assists. We have never tracked a worse game in
terms of that ratio. But it was one of those nights in which the
Longhorns simply could not knock down open shots, going 2-11 from
3-point range and 19-34 at the free throw line. What should have been
an easy cover was not.

But going forward that works for us here, bringing a far shorter
price range that we should be seeing. Now Kevin O?Neill has to take
his basically six-player rotation even further across the country for
the second tough matchup in less than 48 hours, and they run into a
deep and talented Georgia Tech team that is not only playing with a
lot of confidence right now (that solid rout over Siena on Wednesday
was the kind of outstanding performance that gets lost in the early
marketplace), but also a sense of purpose ? this is a major revenge
affair for Paul Hewitt and his team after getting whipped 76-57 at
Southern Cal LY.

LY?s result, of course fires up the Yellow Jackets but actually means
nothing in terms of the balance of power of the programs. The Trojans
got 145 of their 200 floor minutes from DeMar DeRozan, Taj Gibson,
Daniel Hackett, and Keith Wilkinson in that win, and they are all
gone now. As stated above there is not a PG guard to either handle
the full-court pressure that they will face here, or to create open
looks when they do get a chance to set up the offense, and as bad as
the Assist to Turnover count was vs. Texas, it was also horrific
against Nebraska in Sunday?s home loss, with 17 giveaways vs. only
eight baskets created.

Tech will attack the Southern Cal weaknesses relentlessly. Hewitt has
the depth to press for the full 40 minutes, creating numerous easy
opportunities off of turnovers, and it will be a complete mismatch on
the boards, which also means easy points off of put-backs. And that
is before Trojan fatigue sets in. The second half becomes an ugly
rout-out once that happens.