[scottel]

forget buying 3 points and big juice......play ON +500 on rd trip (3 games or more) and AGAINST under 500 team on 3 gm rd trip (3 or more)..this season...

v1....all games out of conf

A 8-5....B 2-3 C 3-0

v2 mixed rd trip same conf or mixed

A....11-6

B 3-3

C 3-0
......................v1 12 series....no losses so far...v2...17 series no losses so far
..........29-0 on series.........

[scottel]

today.....A bets on Den +3........Orl -8..........both teams are +500 overall so we play ON them

[Hpeter]

Have back checked this for past season? Interesting concept.

[scottel]

I've been doing this yr ....and most of last season....at first the overall results were so so but after looking at fading losing teams on rd trip and playing on winning teams on rd trip it had great results using reg spread

[scottel]

even u just played gm1 ..combined 19-11 63%....no chasing

[johncrud]

how far back was your backtracking dated?

[jaws]

forget buying 3 points and big juice......play ON +500 on rd trip (3 games or more) and AGAINST under 500 team on 3 gm rd trip (3 or more)..this season...

v1....all games out of conf

A 8-5....B 2-3 C 3-0

v2 mixed rd trip same conf or mixed

A....11-6

B 3-3

C 3-0
......................v1 12 series....no losses so far...v2...17 series no losses so far
..........29-0 on series.........

Thanks for sharing the concept. It's quite interesting. Can you please list the 29 series that you had played so far this NBA season. Thank you very much

[RustedVegas]

Just betting A's may be way to go. You've had 6 C bets so far. The JM system had 9 C bets all of last year.

[jaws]

RustedVegas, you are correct in terms of playing less C bets; however, it's much less stress and pressure since we do not have to buy those 3 points. If you lose one series using JM concept, you may lose all your bankroll.

[jaws]

scottel, according to your results, there should be 30 series (v1: 8-5; V2: 11-6). It is a lot of work; however, it would be very helpful if you can list the series. Also, for the start of the season, how do we know which team has a winning or losing percentage?

[scottel]

at start of season I used last yrs standings for first 2 weeks then converted to current season

[scottel]

RustedVegas, you are correct in terms of playing less C bets; however, it's much less stress and pressure since we do not have to buy those 3 points. If you lose one series using JM concept, you may lose all your bankroll.

exactly , under JM u are risking about 10 units on c bet. or more...reg spread u bet 4 to win back 3 lost plus one on c bet

[Seth_21887]

Do all of the opposing teams on the road have to be a sub 500 team? Or is that just the first team? Because I'm looking at this Orlando series and the third game is Utah and they're well over 500. Thanks for this info, I hate risking so much on the JM series, I may put this to use.

[jaws]

Scottel, thank you for your quick reply on the selection criteria at the start of the season. Please confirm if the plays for today are Denver and Orlando. Denver is on 4 games road trip: san antonio, Philadelphia, Charlotte and Detroit. Orlando is on 3 games road trip: clippers, Utah and Phoenix.

[jaws]

scottel, your theory is getting a lot of interests. It's great for discussion. By the way, according to your selection criteria, both Denver and Orlando are plays because both teams are on the road and both have over 50% winning percentage.

[scottel]

scottel, your theory is getting a lot of interests. It's great for discussion. By the way, according to your selection criteria, both Denver and Orlando are plays because both teams are on the road and both have over 50% winning percentage.

right denver and orl are plays today...play On +500 team....on 3 or more rd trip....opp win % is not relevant

[scottel]

Do all of the opposing teams on the road have to be a sub 500 team? Or is that just the first team? Because I'm looking at this Orlando series and the third game is Utah and they're well over 500. Thanks for this info, I hate risking so much on the JM series, I may put this to use.

oppsition win % is not relevant....if the rd team is +500 i bet on them...if rd team is under 500 then bet against them.....on 3 gm rd trip or more....both Den and Orl are over 500 so play ON those two teams today

[scottel]

scottel, according to your results, there should be 30 series (v1: 8-5; V2: 11-6). It is a lot of work; however, it would be very helpful if you can list the series. Also, for the start of the season, how do we know which team has a winning or losing percentage?

I keep track of abc bets, dont record each series and each play per series by team..make a note to make the bet and if it loses then bet next game and mark down if w or l .....not selling anything so have no reason to scam anyone.....the 29 shud be 30 , my bad.......recent dseries ahd Phila as rd team under 500 so play vs them...they covered the A and b but lost to OKC on the C by 11 as 6 pt dog...so went to c bet but series was winner since Phil lost on c bet (were playing against them since under 500 team

[jaws]

scottel,

thank you for sharing your theory and your insights with everyone on this board. I now have a much clearer and better picture of how your theory works. Again, thank you.

[scottel]

scottel,

thank you for sharing your theory and your insights with everyone on this board. I now have a much clearer and better picture of how your theory works. Again, thank you.

your welcome......always looking for winners!..........think the theory is sound...most bad teams will not cover 3 straight on rd and most win teams will cover at least one of 3 on rd....GL

[BigDaddyG]

Scottel-
I like your thread and if it can save us the big juice that's great. Do you know what your A record would be if you did buy points?
If you plan on posting these plays throughout the season could you identify if they are a v1 or a v2?
Thanks & GL

[Hpeter]

Scottel-

I have one question Phil was 5-7 when they went on the road 11/21, 11/24, 11/25 and they covered all 3, why was this filtered out of your numbers?

Still a good system just wanted to make sure I was following it correctly.

My numbers when I looked at this year are:
A) 21-11
B) 6-5
C) 4-1 (Loser Phil series)

There were 2 series that the visiting team was at .500 so I did not count them.

So overall I have it as 31 - 7.7 (juice included) for a + 23.3

[puppetm716]

I've been doing this yr ....and most of last season....at first the overall results were so so but after looking at fading losing teams on rd trip and playing on winning teams on rd trip it had great results using reg spread

You say at first results were so so. Does that mean some of the series lost?
I started back testing last year how many times a JM play went on the road and covered all 3 games by more than the 3 points bought. I got thru half the teams and found more than 7 times this happened. That was enough for me.

The JM system hasn't lost yet this year so how is what you are saying better? Especially if you had initial so so results.

Not trying to bash as we are all just trying to find the best way to make $$$.

Many others post how it is not necessary to buy points. The Indiana series which just passed is just one of the instances which show why you have to always.

Keep up the good work.

Best of Luck

[BlueJays]

So what you are saying is that we should bet on ORL and DEN on spread but without buying points?
Thanks!

[jaws]

So what you are saying is that we should bet on ORL and DEN on spread but without buying points?
Thanks!

Gents, as I understand Scottel's theory, you do not buy points on the teams that you bet on. The important criteria is to pick teams with a WINNING record and on the road for 3 consecutive games or more. You also make bets AGAINST teams with losing record and on 3 consecutive road. He mentioned that his record for last year was "SO SO" because he had played with teams with losing records.

[scottel]

Gents, as I understand Scottel's theory, you do not buy points on the teams that you bet on. The important criteria is to pick teams with a WINNING record and on the road for 3 consecutive games or more. You also make bets AGAINST teams with losing record and on 3 consecutive road. He mentioned that his record for last year was "SO SO" because he had played with teams with losing records.

the so so record was due to playing ON not AGAINST losing teams on rd trip, like JM system but not buying points....thats when I looked at +500 and under 500 to see if any serious difference......visiting family this weekend. when i return I will dig out notes form last yr

[jaws]

puppetm716, you have to buy points if you play JM system regardless whether the team has a winning or losing record. Scottel's system is entirely different. I prefer Scottel's system because we don't have to lay 170 to win 100. Like i said earlier, you lose one series using JM system, you lose lots of money.

[scottel]

So what you are saying is that we should bet on ORL and DEN on spread but without buying points?
Thanks!

yes , play Orl and Den on reg spread..no points buying

[jaws]

Scottel, thank you for taking your time to reply to our questions. Have great time with your family.

[scottel]

Scottel-

I have one question Phil was 5-7 when they went on the road 11/21, 11/24, 11/25 and they covered all 3, why was this filtered out of your numbers?

Still a good system just wanted to make sure I was following it correctly.

My numbers when I looked at this year are:
A) 21-11
B) 6-5
C) 4-1 (Loser Phil series)

There were 2 series that the visiting team was at .500 so I did not count them.

So overall I have it as 31 - 7.7 (juice included) for a + 23.3

when this season first started I was just playin opp conf rd trips.....after seeing JM v2 i decided to check any rd trip with same criteria with +500 or under 500 team....I just missed that one somehow....my mistake....like u said still doing well so far

[scottel]

to clarify..here is what u do

bet ON any +500 team on 3 gm or more rd trip......opp, same or mixed conf

bet AGAINST any under 500 team on 3 gm or more rd trip....opp, same, or mixed conf

today both Orl and Den begin at least 3 gm rd trip.......both are +500 overall so play ON Orl and Den

[jaws]

Hpeter, good find. I went back and verified that Philadelphia with a losing record went on 3 game road trip and covered all three games. Since this is true, then we have one series loss. The good thing is even one loss, the net profit is 23.3 units. Hpeter, good job and thank you for sharing your data.

[scottel]

also keep in mind that since this is pointspread some people can get win or loss depending on what line u get.....one thing I would advise if u follow ..when playing popular team like Lakers, bet early as lines usually rise on LAL since a big public fav..dont remember the game but it happened once already this yr as line moved up from early morn to game time..early bets won and late bets lost due to line move

[jaws]

Scottel, you made a very good point. I can't recall how many games are won or lost by half point in this NBA season. The beautiful thing that I like about your system is I will NOT lose my ass if I was to lose one or two series in as season.

[scottel]

Scottel, you made a very good point. I can't recall how many games are won or lost by half point in this NBA season. The beautiful thing that I like about your system is I will NOT lose my ass if I was to lose one or two series in as season.

true and some books now charging -220 to buy 3 points or not allowing it at all....too expensive for me especially on C bet