10 Dime - Cincinnati

I lost with a free pick on Cincinnati last week at home against Illinois, but then again, the reason I used the Bearcats as a freebie - a selection I didn't bet on personally - was because I wasn't sure whether they'd take that game seriously with this one at Pittsburgh on the horizon with a BCS bowl berth going to the victor. And, that's exactly what happened as Cincy jumped to the early double-digit lead and toyed with the Illini throughout, coasting to the 49-36 win but failing to get the cover as the 22-point home chalk.

If you analyze the Cincinnati-Illinois game from just the "who covered" perspective, you missed the bigger point of that contest, which was judging the effectiveness of quarterback Tony Pike, who was making his first start since October 15. In the team's previous game against West Virginia, he had attempted four passes and thrown two scoring strikes off the bench, raising his season total to 17 touchdown passes versus three interceptions. Well, against Illinois, I'd say he passed - literally and figuratively - with flying colors, throwing six more TD passes as Cincinnati's offense, averaging 38 points and 478 yards per game, continued to hum.

Why Cincy was winning its tune-up for this showdown, Pitt was tackling West Virginia in its annual Backyard Brawl, coming up on the short-end of a 19-16 final as the Mountaineers kicked a game-winning 43-yard field goal as time expired. The Panthers really gave that game away, missing two field goals while watching quarterback Bill Stull, who has enjoyed a good senior season, return to his interception-prone ways, as he was picked off twice.

Is Pitt the better defensive team in this match-up? No question about that. And the Panthers can bring the heat with 43 sacks on the season. But Pike negates that pressure with a quick release and an outstanding corps of receivers.

Pittsburgh can run the ball with freshman Dion Lewis (131 yards per game average, 5.8 ypc), but the Bearcats actually got their own running game going in the season's final three games, making Pike all the more lethal.

The bottom line in this game is that Pitt doesn't have the offensive firepower to match points with Cincinnati. And while the Bearcats went on the road earlier this year in a big step-up game and delivered with a win at Oregon State, I look at Pitt and see a team that barely hung on against Notre Dame's passing attack, failed to get the job done against an average West Virginia squad, and needed a huge comeback and last-minute field goal to escape at home against another average Big East foe in Connecticut. Those weren't exactly "big game" performances from a Pitt team whose coach, Dave Wannstedt, has never impressed me either when the spotlight has shone brightly.

I think this will be one of the more entertaining, high-scoring games of the day with Cincinnati holding on to pull out the 37-31 win.