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25* Legend

Rutgers

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Bumping for 12/25

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Larry Ness' 20* Big East Payoff (13-3, 81% CFB run s/Nov 20)
Brian Kelly is probably college football's "hottest commodity" among head coaches. He led the Bearcats to a 21-6 record in his first two seasons at Cincy, including its first BCS bowl last season, an Orange Bowl loss to Virginia Tech. However, Kelly has taken his team's success a step further in 2009, as the Bearcats are 11-0 for the first time in school history and their No. 5 ranking in the AP poll marks a school-best. Pitt may have been caught looking ahead to this game last weekend, as the Panthers lost 19-16 at West Va. However, the good news for Dave Wannstedt's team is a win here and the Panthers are the Big East champs and are headed to the school's first BCS Bowl since they went to the Fiesta Bowl at the end of the 2004 season (lost to Utah 35-7). Like Thursday's "Civil War" in which it was a winner take all for a Rose Bowl bid between Ore St and Oregon, the Pitt-Cincinnati season finale is essentially the first de facto championship game the Big East has had in its 18-year history. Cincy QB Tony Pike made his first start last weekend since returning from an arm injury and threw for 399 yards and six TDs in a 49-36 win over Illinois on Friday. However, one has to wonder if the Bearcats are not a more balance team with sophomore QB Zach Collaros at the controls, as Cincy ran just four times in the first three quarters against the Illini. One of the main reasons that Cincy's 11-0 mark is such a surprise in 2009 is because the team returned just one defensive starter this year. The Bearcats allowed just 103 points over their first eight games (12.9 PPG) but have allowed 102 points over their last three games (34.0 PPG). I believe the Bearcats are ripe for an upset. Cincy won 28-21 last year at Nippert Stadium, ending Pitt's seven-game winning streak in the series. Last year's game marked the first time these two schools had met when BOTH were ranked. This year's game holds even higher stakes. Pitt QB Stull had two INTs last week at Morgantown but he's made major strides this year, He completed 57.0 percent of his passes with nine TDs and 10 INTs last year but has completed 64.9 percent this year, with 19 TDs and just six INTs. RB Dion Lewis has set a new Big East freshman record with 1,446 yards rushing (5.8 YPC / 13 TDs) and Pitt's running game (183.8 YPG / 5.2 YPC) could easily exploit Cincy's suddenly suspect defense. The Bearcats have allowed 190.7 yards rushing and 442.7 total yards in their past three games. As for Pitt's D, it ranks 15th in scoring (17.7 PPG) and 25th in total yards (319.6 YPG), while leading the nation with 43 sacks. Kelly's name was linked with vacancies at Tennessee and Washington last year. Now, with Notre Dame firing Charlie Weis, speculation about Kelly coaching the Irish has run rampant. "It's not comfortable for me," Kelly said. "It's not comfortable for those that are involved in it, but it's the reality of it. The only thing I can control is the message every day, and the message to our football players is about how we can become champions and how we can win football games." Anyone really think he's NOT leaving Cincinnati? This is obviously the biggest game of the season for both schools. However, Pitt is playing at home, owns the better defense and has a real chance to control the game and clock with RB Lewis. No upset here, as Pitt wins.Big East Payoff 20* Pitt.

[lucky888gunz]

is ness 1-100 scale? thank you

[LLXC]

No, up to 25* & LEGEND.

[lucky888gunz]

gotcha, so this is the max play-- thanks.

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Larry Ness' 20* PERFECT STORM-CFB (9-3, 75% in CFB '09)-Sat
My 20* PERFECT STORM is on U Conn at 8:00 ET. USF (7-4) and U Conn (6-5) meet on Saturday with both teams trying to improve their bowl positions. For South Florida, the last three seasons have been deja vu. USF opened 6-0 in 2007 and opened as the No. 2 team in the nation in the first BCS standings but promptly lost its next three games. The Bulls would finish 9-4. In 2008, USF opened 5-0 but lost FIVE of its last seven regular season games before winning a bowl game to finish 8-5. This year, the Bulls again opened 5-0 but have lost FOUR of their last six games. U Conn is bowl-eligible for the third straight season, surviving the tragic death of Jasper Howard. Despite the loss of Donald Brown to the NFL's Colts (2,083 yards / 5.7 YPC / 18 TDs), the Huskies are still a run-first team, averaging 176.9 YPG (4.3 YPC / 27 TDs). Sophomore Todman has run for 1,079 yards (5.1 YPC / 14 TDs) and senior Dixon 917 yards (4.8 YPC / 11 TDs). In U Conn's first home game since Howard was stabbed to death outside a school dance on Oct 18, QB Cody Endres went down with an injury to his left shoulder against Rutgers. Backup QB Zach Frazer entered the game in the first quarter and threw for 333 yards and a TD. He led U Conn on two fourth-quarter TD drives after they trailed 21-10 (led 24-21). On a day Connecticut wanted badly to win for slain teammate Jasper Howard, one of Howard's best friends won it for Rutgers. WR Tim Brown, who grew up with Howard in Miami, scored on an 81-yard TD pass with 22 seconds left to give the Scarlet Knights an improbable 28-24 victory over the Huskies. The Huskies have won TWO of three games since, averaging 39.5 PPG. They lost 47-45 at Cincy, while beating Notre Dame 33-30 in two OTs at South Bend and won 56-31 over Syracuse in Storrs. Frazer has averaged a more modest 191.7 YPG the last three games but unlike in the game vs Rutgers (three INTs), he's thrown four TDs and just two INTs. Todman has averaged 138.3 YPG on the ground the last three games (six TDs) while Dixon has averaged 93.5 YPG with four TDs in his last two. U Conn's pass D has been a 'nightmare' over the last three games, allowing 389.7 YPG and not intercepting a single pass in 123 attempts. However, that shouldn't be a concern against USF's freshman QB, BJ Daniels (Grothe went down for the season early in the year). USF has split four home games (lost 34-17 to Cincy and 31-10 to Miami), while losing both road games (41-14 at Pitt and 31-0 at Rutgers) over their last six games (since that 5-0 start). Daniels has completed 11-of-25 passes (44.0%) for just 170 yards with zero TDs and four INTs in USF's two road games. How can U Conn's pass D be worried? Overall, USF has posted 18 total FDs and just 185.5 total YPG in those two road efforts. These schools are almost 1,300 miles apart (biggest difference any two in the Big East) and it should come as no surprise that the home team is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the schools' four Big East meetings. PERFECT STORM 20* U Conn