NY Jets -3 Buffalo 37 (Toronto)

Jets dominated Carolina from the line of scrimmage in their 17-6 win
last week although all of their scores came on either interception
returns or short drives due to Carolina turnovers. They out rushed
Carolina 3.6ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed them 6.9yps to 2.8yps and out
gained them overall, 4.7yppl to 2.9yppl. Buffalo out scored Miami 24-0
in the fourth quarter on their way to a 31-14 victory. The game was
much closer than the final score as it was tied with less than four
minutes to go and had a 56 yard field goal not been made by Buffalo,
with the game tied, Miami would have received the ball with great field
position to drive for the game winning field goal. Instead, the field
goal was good, and Miami fell apart trying to come back. Buffalo out
rushed Miami 5.2ypr to 4.2ypr, out passed them 6.5yps to 5.1yps and out
gained them overall, 5.9yppl to 4.6yppl. For the season the Jets
average 4.6ypr against 4.5ypr, 5.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.1yppl
against 5.5yppl. On defense they allow just 3.9ypr against 4.5ypr,
5.1yps against 6.2yps and 4.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Buffalo averages
4.1ypr against 4.4ypr, just 5.5yps against 6.3yps and 4.9yppl against
5.5yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.6yps against
6.0yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. But, since firing Dick Jauron,
Buffalo has been much better on offense and defense. They have averaged
4.1ypr against 4.1ypr and allowed 3.6ypr against 4.7ypr in their last
two games. They also have averaged 7.6yps against 6.8yps and allowed
5.8yps against 5.6yps. The full season body of work is a much better
indicator but because of the coaching change, there could be some
validity to their last two games. Assuming the full season stats, the
Jets qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 554-421-30
and 461-303-21. Numbers favor the Jets by four points and predict about
32 points. If I just use Buffalo’s last two games, numbers would be
closer to a pick ‘em and still predict about 32 points. I would like to
make the Jets a best bet here and they did dominate Buffalo in their
first game but turned the ball over too much. I will pass simply
because of the work Buffalo has done the last few weeks. If this line
were closer to a pick ‘em, I would more willing to play the Jets. For
now, just a lean their way. NY JETS 17 BUFFALO 13