Nick Parsons 12/3 NFL
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Dec 3 2009 8:20PM
PICK: under Your pick will be graded at: 37 Belmont EXPERT: Nick Parsons TITLE: *10* "TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER"! 20-9/69% RUN! REASON FOR PICK: For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":
Mark Sanchez was 13 of 17 for 154 yards and just one INT Sunday, enabling the defense to carry the Jets to a 17-6 victory over Carolina, snapping a three-game losing streak. The Panthers were held to 179 total yards - an effort resembling New York's stingy play during its 3-0 start and I look for it to build off that performance.
Despite their recent struggles, and because of last week's stalwart defensive effort, the Jets remain one game out in a crowded AFC wild-card race and two back in the division chase.
On the other side of the field: Buffalo had lost five games this season in which they led or were tied in the final quarter. But against the Dolphins, the Bills snapped a 14-14 tie by erupting for 17 points in a span of 2:15 with less than four minutes to play; I believe they'll suffer a "letdown" offensively against an extremely alert Jet secondary in Toronto though.
The Bills had four INT's against Miami last time out, boosting their takeaway total to 25 - tied for third-most in the NFL.
They picked off the Jets six times in a 16-13 overtime road victory Oct. 18, with New York rookie Mark Sanchez all but throwing the game away with five INT's.
As it proved against Miami last Sunday, Buffalo's defense can take a game over in the fourth quarter if it has been rested. Putting together some well-balanced, clock-eating drives early by the offense will be critical as well if the Bills want a chance at winning this game
Keep in mind the total has gone under the posted number in five of Buffalo's last seven overall.
Bottom line: When the ball is in his hands, look for Sanchez to manage both the game and his wonky knee without taking too many chances; despite their record, New York boasts the league's No. 2 overall defense and had a dominating performance last weekend.
When you take into account all of the above factors, I have to recommend a play on the UNDER!
*10*
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BetEd Logan's BetJamaica New York Jets
Buffalo Bills -3
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ill have ness legend up saturday, i already bought it so ill post it up on the right day