Grant and Lee have nothing on the 113th edition of this ‘Civil War.’ The
nation’s 7th oldest rivalry resumes in Eugene with a trip to Pasadena and
a BCS Bowl on the line. You can bet your musket Mike Riley’s troops will
remember the 38-point beating they took at home in last year’s season fi nale
which ultimately cost them the Pac-10 title and a Rose Bowl appearance.
For the most part, this battle has been a closely contested one with the
Ducks holding a 56-46-10 series advantage. Oregon HC Chip Kelly will be
on the sidelines for the first time in this rivalry but Riley has been a veteran
of these wars, posting a 4-5 SU mark. As expected, the ATS numbers are
good on both sides. The Beavers are 7-1 ATS with rest, a perfect 7-0 ATS
after scrimmaging with Washington State and a moneymaking 11-4 ATS
as double-digit conference dogs. The Ducks counter with an 8-1 ATS mark
with rest, a 9-1 ATS log off a SU win but ATS loss and an impressive 12-3
record as double-digit conference favorites. We may revisit this one when
the final number settles in but at this point we’ll side with the northern
visitors whose general fights with an 8-2 SU and ATS mark with rest when
battling a foe off a SU win. The Union won the ‘Battle of Beaver Dam Creek’
in Mechanicsville in 1862. Look for Riley’s Beavers to hang tough in this
battle 147 years later.
ADDED GAME
Arkansas St over W KENTUCKY by 8
The Sun Belt conference features the only other matchup on this Thursday
night card. Which leads us to this burning question – why? Maybe L.T.
Smith Stadium in Bowling Green is booked on Saturday with a Monster
truck demo or a tobacco-spitting contest. Whatever the case may be, we
certainly didn’t need Kreskin to tell us that the 3-8 Arkansas State Red
Wolves or the winless Western Kentucky Hilltoppers would enter this
season finale with very much at stake. Red Wolves’ HC Steve Roberts
hasn’t enjoyed a winning season in his 8-year stint in Jonesboro and the
Hilltoppers arrive on a 19-game losing streak. The hosts have played hard
for lame-duck HC David Elson, grabbing the cash in their last 3 contests
but our WORST COMES TO WORST article on page 2 has us dancing with
the Wolves. Roberts is a healthy 7-3 ATS away versus winless opposition
including a spotless 3-0 ATS off a SU loss. However, the visitors’ toothless
1-9 ATS log in their last 10 attempts as road chalk tempers our enthusiasm.
If you want to play it, we suggest you lay it. We “Betcha Didn’t Know”
we’d be leaning in that direction!
NY Jets over BUFFALO by 6
Bills make their annual 96-mile border crossing to Toronto to host the Jets
Thursday night in a setting that is not conducive to Buffalo fans. Not only do
they dislike having to make the journey, the fans weren’t thrilled at having to
sit in the Rogers Centre throughout last year’s 16-3 loss as 2-point chalk to the
Dolphins. That result moved the mark of underdogs in Bills’ games to 4-0 ATS
in Thursday tilts. Tonight, however, the Flyboys will be out to exact revenge
from a 16-13 overtime loss in Week Six this season, a game in which New York
outstatted Buffalo, 404-296. We’d like to make a case for Buffalo’s improved
play under interim head coach Perry Fewell but we can’t. Not with the Jets
10-1-1 ATS against a division opponent off a division win of eight or more
points, and the Bills 6-30 ATS in games after meeting Miami – including 4-15
SU and 1-18 ATS when facing an opponent off a spread win. Sacre blue! Bills
run out of Fewell here.
triple-dime bet 303 Oregon St. 10.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 304 Oregon Analysis: Play On: Oregon State (Game 303) Note: The nation’s 7th oldest rivalry resumes in Eugene with a trip to Pasadena and a BCS Bowl on the line. Rest assured Mike Riley’s troops will remember the 65-38 beating they took at home in last year’s season finale which ultimately cost them the PAC-10 title and a Rose Bowl appearance. It was the most points ever allowed by Riley in his career with the Beavers. OSU is 7-1 ATS with rest and a perfect 7-0 ATS after Washington State. In addition, Riley is 8-2 SU and ATS with rest versus an opponent off a win. More importantly, the Beavers have allowed 16 PPG in their last four PAC-10 games, after having allowed 28 PPG in their first four conference games this season. On the flip side, Oregon has allowed 113 points in its last three games, after having surrendered 137 points in its opening eight games of the season. Look for the Ducks to drop to 0-5 SU and ATS in Thursdays here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Oregon State.
Marc Lawrence Playbook 12/3
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