Ferringo CBB 12/2
3.5-Unit Play. Take #521 Dayton (-3.5) over Miami, OH (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
The road team has covered three straight and Dayton has won four of five outright in this series. There are three things keeping this number down. First, Miami is at home. Second, the last three games have been determined by an average of just under three points per game. And third, Miami is coming off a 24-point win while Dayton wasn’t even close to covering in a close win over Towson. However, I think all of those things have created value for us. Dayton won by five in this game last year and Miami lost 21 of the 40 points from that game. They just don’t have the high-end talent that they have had recently and I just don’t think that they are as strong. Dayton, on the other hand, lost just one contributor from last year’s victory and brought everyone else back. The Flyers are one of the top 35 or 40 teams in the country and a likely NCAA Tournament team. They had a disappointing trip to San Juan and they know that they need to get it going in the nonconference. They will be way up for this game and I think that it will be their best performance to date. Miami is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #569 BYU (+1.5) over Utah State (9 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
So far this year the Mountain West has owned the WAC. They are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in the nine matchups so far this year, and that is in keeping in how the conferences have performed against one another over the last few years. The Mountain West is just better, and it will be better here tonight. The home team and Utah State have been the plays in this series. But I think that BYU keeps it going after back-to-back solid wins over the Aggies.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #565 Missouri State (-2) over Arkansas-Little Rock (8:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
Almost pulled the trigger on Evansville at Tennessee Tech last night. And glad I didn't because they didn't cover by a half-point in double-overtime. But the reason I like that play is the same reason I like this one: relative conference strength. I know that UA-LR is a solid little team. But they are in the middle-to-lower tier of the Sun Belt whereas Missouri State is in the upper tier of the Missouri Valley, a much stronger conference. This line has gone from Little Rock -1 to Missouri State -2 and I think it's because the oddsmakers made a mistake. The Bears have impressive wins over good teams that people don't realize like Eastern Michigan, Auburn and The Citadel. And if MSU is good enough to beat Tulsa they are good enough to beat Little Rock.
2-Unit Play. Take #577 Duke (-4) over Wisconsin (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
I absolutely loathe playing Duke in this spread range and I actually like this play about double what it is rated. But I have respect for Bo Ryan and the magic of Madison. That said, I still will put my money on the better team here. Wisconsin was all over the map in Maui and I still don't know what to make of them. They entered a year as a team I was looking to play against, they actually exceeded my expectations watching them in Hawaii, but now I still don't know if I should be worried about them in these spots. Duke is large and athletic. And the core of this team is the same as the one that went into Purdue last year in this event and absolutely tomohawked the Boilermakers. I'm on record as backing the ACC in this event so I will back them here with the Blue Devils.
1-Unit Play. Take #582 Ohio State (-6.5) over Florida State (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
Note: This should be a 2-Unit Play. Grade it as a 2-Unit Play.
Rare stepout on the Big Ten in this event and I hope I don't regret it. Ohio State is a team that I like, even though I feel that they haven't played up to their potential just yet. The reason I like them here is that they are a perimeter-oriented team that I think will be more aggressive and more confident at home. They really should have beaten North Carolina in Madison Square Garden (not that I'm bitter) and now here, playing at home, against a Florida State team that is weaker than that Carolina one, I think it has all the makings for a blowout. Florida State also has to be a bit exhausted after a really grueling comeback win over Marquette (a team that is not as good as Ohio State, and FSU was down 11 in the second half on a neutral court) and after playing three tough games in three days (this after getting rocked in a rivalry game at Florida). How much do the Seminoles have left in the tank?
1.5-Unit Play. Take #530 Richmond (-3.5) over Old Dominion (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
I didn’t really like the spread in this game, but it keeps moving in our favor so I'm all over it after an open of -6.5. I feel like I have to just throw it out there to cash on Richmond. This team just beat Missouri and Mississippi State, two teams that topped Old Dominion in the same tournament, and the Spiders have revenge for a tight loss last year to ODU. I distinctly remember that game because we cashed with Richmond for double this, and I remember what dicks ODU were in that contest. Well, revenge time. Richmond has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and the home team has won nine of 10 matchups. Both teams essentially have everyone back, except the Spiders added Dan Geriot underneath. Richmond shoots out of its mind at home and I think that they will do so tonight. This one is going to be close, but I like the Spiders to take care of business and win by six points, 76-70.
1-Unit Play. Take #532 Georgia (-2.5) over St. Louis (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
This one is all about the fact that Georgia will have recruited better talent and stronger players than St. Louis. Period. It's relative conference strength here again. Georgia will be one of the worst teams in the SEC, but that's still better than being one of the two or three worst teams in the A-10. St. Louis has been kind of textbook up until this point – getting rocked and not covering spreads. They are a young team, fully comprised of sophomores and freshmen, and I think that this is a perfect letdown spot for them after playing in Chicago at a tournament last weekend. On the off chance that they do cover this game (they would have to win outright) I’ll go right back against them versus Southern Illinois on Saturday. This team just isn’t any good.
1-Unit Play. Take #561 Mississippi (-11.5) over Arkansas State (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
Just going to keep going to the well with Ole Miss. Love this team, love the makeup of it, and love the fact that they are still a bit under the radar. Arkansas State is a bit of a mess, and this one is just all about Ole Miss's motivation. If they want to win by 20, they will win by 20. But I don't think this is an upset spot so we'll dabble a bit.
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #524 Duquesne (+11.5) over Pitt (7 p.m.) AND Take #543 Boston College (+10) over Michigan (7:30 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #587 Siena (+10.5) over Georgia Tech (7 p.m.) AND Take #573 Washington State (+16.5) over Gonzaga (9 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #535 Western Kentucky (+10.5) over South Carolina (7 p.m.) AND Take #582 Ohio State (-1.5) over Florida State (7:30 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #569 BYU (+6.5) over Utah State (9 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2) AND Take #576 New Mexico (Pk) over Cal (9 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #582 Ohio State (-1.5) over Florida State (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #561 Mississippi (-6.5) over Arkansas State (8 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #543 Boston College (+10) over Michigan (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #538 Clemson (Pk) over Illinois (7 p.m.)
lucky888gunz gave PhatBaztard 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by iMxth3xbossx5000
...LOVELY
but a winnign night is a win
