Malinsky
4* #540 MIAMI F. over MINNESOTA
This line shows us that Miami is flying far beneath the national
radar screens right now, and we will not hesitate to take advantage
against a weary Minnesota team that faces particular issues in this
kind of setting.
Frank Haith?s Hurricanes brng a nice blend of veteran toughness from
SR?s Cyrus McGowan and Dwayne Collins inside, and James Dews on the
perimeter, and some excellent fresh talent in FR Durand Scott, and SO
Malcom Grant, a Villanova transfer. In some ways the chemistry may be
even better without explosive scorer Jack McClinton, and the schedule
has been ideal to build the chemistry ? they swept through Tulane,
UNC-Wlimington and South Carolina easily in the Charleston Classic,
and since then have only had two home walkovers over the last 10
days, which means plenty of time on the home practice court.
Meanwhile the Minnesota players might have trouble remembering what
the home practice court looks like right now. The Gophers left campus
over a week ago to make a long trip to Anaheim before playing three
tough games in four days, and then an even longer trip across country
for this one. While Tubby Smith?s team brings excellent depth and
defensive tenacity, there is going to be a real problem scoring
against this class of competition, especially on the road (this will
be their first true road game this season, and they only played one
non-conference road game LY). It is one of those cases in which depth
can sometimes present problems. Nine different players have made at
least one start, and each is averaging at least 16 minutes per game,
but while that helps on defense, the offensive flow has been awkward,
at best. They only shot 35.9 percent from the field in those weekend
losses to Portland and Texas A&M, and no player is averaging more
than Damion Johnson?s 12.3 per game. On the road against a physical
defense we expect them to have all sorts of problems in their
half-court sets, and eventually they lose contact in this one.
4* #551 NEW ORLEANS over TULANE
They have put the cart way ahead of the horse in this one, in a
typical inner-city Rivalry in which easy wins are difficult come by.
In the last nine meetings the line has never been higher than -8
either way, and in six of those games the line was -2.5 or lower. In
seven of the games New Orleans won outright, including taking the
last three by a combined 24 points. So have either the Privateers
fallen that hard, or the Green Wave made such improvements, to make
this the proper price range? We don?t see it.
Tulane is not going to dominate many opponents. The Green Wave have a
decent back-court by are not imposing at all in the paint, which
explains an awful -49 rebounding deficit so far. They have lost the
battle of the boards in every game, including that 82-55 drubbing of
lowly Alabama State, and you do not build many margins when you are
not getting easy points around the basket, or controlling the glass.
And they also do not push the tempo to help build margins, averaging
just 62 points through their first five lined games.
New Orleans is also going to bring the preferred pace to cash a
ticket in this range ? the Privateers have not allowed an opponent to
reach 70 points yet, including road trips to Georgia and N. C. State.
Georgia transfer Billy Humphrey has fit well into this lineup and is
the best go-to scorer on the court (18.0 ppg), and local product
Charles Carmouche, the only player from the city starting for either
team, is becoming a nice compliment in the back-court, averaging
12.8. Those two provide the punch to be able to score through the
back-door, should that ne necessary, but we do not see it ever
getting that far.
Look for an intense struggle at a slow pace between these rivals that
makes this pointspread a mountain to overcome.
6* #580 VANDERBILT over MISSOURI
Missouri LY was one of the better ?meal ticket? teams for us in
recent memory in any sport ? we cashed more 6* tickets behind them in
one season than perhaps any college hoops team ever. It was one of
those cases in which the chemistry came together almost flawlessly
for Mike Anderson, and while those usual frenetic presses were the
vogue, it was the precision and execution that made them so special ?
they led the nation in assists, and were #2 in assist to turnover
ratio, steals, and turnover margin. But this is not that team. That
Tiger edition had NBA draft choices DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons up
front, and an excellent shooter in Matt Lawrence that made them
difficult to zone. Now the Anderson presses are still there, but not
much else in terms of polish at this early juncture in the season,
and it is going to take quite some time for them to develop.
The problem for Anderson is that in what should be a positive growing
process, his team is running into opponents that are going to play
smart and disciplined basketball. Missouri was never able to push the
pace against Old Dominion or Richmond in that weekend tourney at
South Padre Island, and the results were ugly. In splitting the two
games they made only 36-103 shots from the field, and in Saturday?s
loss to Richmond they managed all of five assists in 49 FG attempts.
SO Kim English summed it up best ? ?We allowed them to dictate the
tempo. If we?re forced to play slow-down basketball we?re not that
good of a team.? If they could not get their pace on a neutral
court vs. that class of competition, they are not going to have their
way in Nashville tonight.
Kevin Stallings will not try to turn this into a waltz, but he will
have his team playing the usual fundamentally-sound basketball. In
6-3 SR Jermaine Beal there is an excellent floor leader against those
Tiger presses, and with fellow starting G Brad Tinsley also at 6-3
there is the size to better handle those traps. Gutting out a tough
road win at Saint Mary?s, and then playing three games in as many
days at the Maui Invitational, has provided the Commodores with a
development tool that has them much further along than Missouri, and
expect that Tigers to particularly struggle in their half-court
defenses against the inside-out combinations that the Commodores
bring ? with A. J. Ogilvy operating down low, and Jeffery Taylor
living up to his billing on the perimeter (not only as a shooter; he
grabbed 10 rebounds in last Wednesday?s win over Arizona and leads
the team in steals), this can develop into a superb offense, one that
can get points from every position. That will completely break down
an opponent that is not ready for this class of challenge yet, and we
expect to see Missouri have serious issues on both ends of the court.
That makes this a much easier game for the host than the oddsmakers
are calling for, and we step it up accordingly.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by joey
