We can understand why Oregon has had such sex appeal in the marketplace, because of the flashy nature of that spread offense. But to be -10 over a team that has been every bit as good this season, in a high-pressure setting with the Rose Bowl on the line? That does not fit. But it exists because a team from a quiet media outpost like Corvallis just does not bring the same sex appeal, regardless of how well they play.A lot of the numbers here can be updated from that 6* call that we made on Mike Riley and his Beavers three games back at California, when they rolled 31-14 despite being 7-point underdogs. It might look like an extreme result based on the line, but it was nothing new at all. The last four seasons State has gone 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS over the last six weeks of the season, and over those four campaigns that have gone 8-2 ATS as Pac 10 road underdogs, with six SU wins. No matter how much success they have they continue to get under-valued by the betting markets. Yet there should be some sex appeal here, with the Rodgers brothers among the most explosive sibling combinations to ever play together, with 1573 rushing yards and 19 TD’s at 5.4, 144 receptions for 1,301 yards and nine TD’s, and 785 return yards.The presence of those two has made the SR season for Sean Canfield at QB a special one. When you have two special talents on the field at the same time it means an ability to stretch defenses and run plays that do not require a lot of risk, and Canfield has directed what has been an almost flawless offense. His 70.3 percent completion rate is within reach of the Pac 10 record of 70.7, and in 782 offensive snaps this offense has only turned the ball over nine times. That puts them prime in our “Tough Out” category – when you have big-time playmakers, and do not make mistakes to beat yourself, you are rarely out of any game, especially with the confidence they bring from all of those past road successes (including that 38-31 win two years ago in the last trip to this field).Oregon is over-rated here because while what the Ducks do well they do every well, they are also nothing special in far too many areas. They are in an intense fight here to merely win the game outright, and do not bring the advantages of this classy opponent to mount any kind of margin.
Malinsky-Thursday NCAAF
Reply With Quote