3 Star Selection
WESTERN MICHIGAN (+4 1/2) over Temple
01-Dec-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Western Michigan went from one of the better teams in the MAC to the lower division and just 10 wins last season, but the Broncos should be back in the top of the MAC this season with better offense and better defensive numbers so far this season. Temple is not going to be as good as they were last season, but the Owls are still a good team - although they're not good enough to be favored by more than a couple of points in this game. My ratings favor Temple by just 2 points using games from this season only and by just 3 1/2 points if I incorporate my pre-season ratings for each team (Western Michigan is more improved than I expected). Along with the line value Western Michigan applies to a very good 105-38-2 ATS early season indicator and a 97-41-2 ATS home underdog situation while Temple applies to a negative 42-106-2 ATS situation that is based on their loss to St. John's in their most recent game. That's pretty strong technical support to go along with the line value and I'll take Western Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars at +2 1/2 or +2 points.
3 Star Selection
NORTHEASTERN (pick) over Providence
01-Dec-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Northeastern returned 4 starters from last year's 19-13 team and the Huskies are playing about as well as I thought they'd play, which is about 1 1/2 points better than last year's team. Providence, meanwhile, is not as good as last year's team, as Friars lost 4 experienced starters and a key reserve from last year's 19-14 squad. I would have favored Northeastern by 1 1/2 points using last year's ratings and Northeastern is improved while Providence is not (they're actually about the same so far). My current ratings favor the Huskies by 3 points and the opening line was 3 points, so we clearly have line value on the side of Northeastern here. In addition to the line value Providence applies to a negative 42-106-2 ATS early season angle. I'll take Northeastern in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 or less and for 2-Stars at -2 1/2 or -3 points.
3 Star Selection
NC STATE (-5 1/2) over Northwestern
01-Dec-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
NC State lost their top 3 scorers from last year's team but coach Sidney Lowe insisted that he likes this year's team better and now I know why. This year's team is all guys he recruited and they've bought into his defense first mentality that last year's core did not. Last year's team was worse than average on a national scale defensively, which is really bad for an ACC team, but this year's team ranks in the top 50 on a compensated points per possession allowed basis and they are a better team even if they're not quite as good offensively. With people expecting NC State to be worse there is line value favoring the Wolfpack given that they are actually better than last year's team. Northwestern, meanwhile, is a bit worse than last year's solid team, as losing star Kevin Coble before the season started was a big blow to what was expected to be an improved team. My ratings favor NC State by 7 points in this game and the Wolfpack apply to a 51-15-1 ATS unbeaten home team angle and a 200-95-7 ATS home momentum situation that is based on NC State's good defense. I'll take NC State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 or less and for 2-Stars at -6 1/2 or -7.
2 Star Selection
NORTHERN COLORADO (-6 1/2) over Colorado State
01-Dec-09 06:00 PM Pacific Time
Northern Colorado coach Tad Boyle built a solid foundation in his first few seasons as the Bears transitioned into Division 1 basketball and now the Bears are taking the next step and appear to be the class of the Big Sky Conference. Northern Colorado has faced an easy schedule of teams on their way to a 6-0 record, but they're winning those games by an average of 15 points per game and their compensated numbers are much better on the defensive side of the floor this season thanks to improved depth that allows Boyle to play a much more demanding style of defense. The Bears are averaging 10 steals per game an forcing 19 turnovers per game and they are once again one of the top shooting teams in the nation after finishing 8th in the nation in 3-point percentage last season. Colorado State is also an improved team, but my ratings favor Northern Colorado by 7 points and using this year's games only would favor the Bears by 8 1/2 points. The reason for the play is a 51-15-1 ATS subset of a 123-60-3 ATS momentum situation that favors the Bears. I'll take Northern Colorado in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Dr. Bob 12/1
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