Originally Posted by
joey
4* #714 WESTERN MICHIGAN over TOLEDO ( Dah um Temple )
Western Michigan has a chance to be one of the most improved teams in
the nation this season, but with ingredients that the radar screens
will have trouble picking up. Temple is going to be hard-pressed to
get anything easily on the road because points are so difficult to
come by. So in a game in which the home team also brings a much more
intense and focused approach, we call for the outright upset, with
the points being offered a nice cushion.
The Broncos do not have to make many changes to turn LY?s 10-win
season around; they went 2-9 in games decided by six points or less,
which made things appear much more dark than they really were. But
having top scorer David Kool and two other returning starters back
brings a lot of veteran leadership to build around, and Michael
Douglas and Donald Lawson are bringing more to their new starting
roles than meets the eye. Douglas played in only 17 games as a FR LY
because his two-year brother was fighting a losing battle with sickle
cell anemia, while the 6-10/243 Lawson missed nine conference games
in mid-season because of an irregular heartbeat. After getting off of
a promising start, he never did find his way back into playing shape,
or into a comfortable fit in the rotation. As such neither would have
impressed anyone LY, but now they can bring much more to the table
that those numbers indicate, and in Saturday?s 64-54 win over Holy
Cross we saw career-highs from Lawson in points (15) and steals
(three), while he also grabbed eight rebounds, and Douglas had a
career high of six assists. With the only two home games being that
win, and a dominating 83-67 rout of V.C.U., we see how well these
pieces can fit. And in a rare chance to host a non-conference game
against a team that brings some ?cred? (Temple having been to
back-to-back NCAA tourneys), anticipate a top level of effort,
especially with nothing on deck for the next eight days.
For Temple the focus is much different. The Owls had high profile
games vs. Virginia Tech and St. John?s at the Palestra over the
weekend, and have a home game on deck vs. Penn State up next that
generates much more attention than this trip. Scoring is going to be
a problem all season for Fran Dunphy?s squad, what has already been
held to less than 50 twice through only six games. They are shooting
a brick-laying 24.8 percent from 3-point range, and even if they are
able to be in the lead in the latter stages that 62.0 percent from
the free throw line makes it awfully difficult for them to increase
the margin. With Michael Eric sidelined again there are also only
seven players in the rotation, leaving a lack of depth that makes it
tougher for them to survive this challenge.
4* #726 COLORADO over SAN FRANCISCO
We went to the well twice with Colorado in Maui last week and should
have been rewarded with a pair of winning tickets, with the Buffaloes
easily covering vs. Gonzaga, and then taking Arizona to O.T. in an
underdog role. And because neither of those solid efforts turned into
an outright win we get to come right back again with an under-valued
side.
Here is the key ? not only were the Buffs on the wrong side of the
scoreboard in terms of market perception, what they put on the
scoreboard was also not noticed. While Jeff Bzdelik has been tagged
with a reputation for running a lot of Pete Carrill schemes, so much
of that came from his seasons at Air Force, when he was forced to
play slower because of the kind of talent on hand. Remember his days
with the Nuggets? Bzdelik is adept at creating designs based on the
personnel on hand, and this year?s group brings the ability to run a
lot of those complicated sets at a faster pace. They are shooting
51.7 percent through six games, and note the 72 points vs. Gonzaga
and 80 vs. Arizona. Those tallies will be far above what those
defenses are going to be allowing this season. Now they have had
ample time to prepare since returning to campus, and Bzdelik is also
back with the team again, which sets the stage for what we believe
will be a dominating win.
San Francisco is vulnerable to a knockout punch. Rex Walters set up
this three-game road trip (at B.Y.U. next before returning home) as a
chance for a young team to develop for conference play later, and it
makes long-term sense when you have two SO?s and a FR in the starting
lineup. But it also means taking some lumps, and the second game in
three days at altitude also creates some major conditioning issues,
especially off of that double-O.T. affair at Colorado State on
Sunday. Want to talk about a team running out of gas? How about the
16-0 run that State went on against them to open the second O.T.
period? That left Monday more as a day to recuperate than to game
plan for a difficult tactical opponent, and the Dons bring a defense
that can be exploited ? in their only outing taking double figures on
the road so far they were helpless to stop Arizona State in a 104-65
drubbing. They will eventually lose contact in this one as well, with
that 81.2 percent free throw shooting by Colorado also helping to
build a margin vs. a team that should be foul-prone in this matchup.
5* #708 DENVER over GOLDEN STATE
There is nothing more difficult that the NBA schedule makers can do
than have a team play in the Pacific Time Zone one night, and then at
Denver the following evening. Not only does a team lose an hour in
the
transition, but the altitude taxes those legs even more. That makes
things particularly arduous for the Warriors this evening with their
short-handed roster, especially because they have the worst possible
timing to face a Nugget team ready to throw a heavy punch.
Some nights in the NBA you just take your lumps and move on, and we
expect that to be the Golden State mind-set. Off of a win on Monday,
and with a home game vs. Houston on Thursday that the Warriors are
capable of grabbing, there is no particular reason to burn some
already tired legs in this setting. With Anthony Randolph now joining
an injury list that already includes Anris Biedrins, Raja Bell,
Kelenna Azubuike and Brandan Wright there is precious little depth,
and virtually none in the front-court, where journeymen Vladimir
Radmanovic and Mikkie Moore are badly over-matched, and Ronny Turiaf
is trying to work his way back into shape. It means little chance of
competing on the boards (they rate 29th, with only the Knicks worse),
or in making any stops (28th on our best set of defensive ratings,
with only Memphis and Toronto worse), and against an aggressive
favorite tonight that spells disaster.
The Nuggets got a rude wake-up call in that stunning second half
collapse vs. Minnesota on Sunday, and we believe they rebound well
from it. They have had two home games this season immediately off of
a
loss, and beat the spread in them by a combined 33 points. We see the
attitude as being the same tonight. First, from Chauncey Billups -
"I would have liked to have come out of this (the Minnesota
defeat)
with a win, and I would have said the same exact thing, but I think
we
did need this. I don't like losing, but I think we needed this."
And Kenyon Martin - "We got exactly what we deserved." But the
best comes from George Karl, who cracks the whip tonight - "Tell
me
my play-hard team. Tell me the five guys I put on the court to play
hard every possession. Tell me. I had it last year. I had a play-hard
team last year. I don't have a play-hard team this year. And it's
making me very angry."
The Nuggets can run the court and score at will against an opponent
that can only play right into that pace, and it is just a matter of
time before this snaps wide open.
Malinsky
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