The Patriots have gotten a lot of love from the bettors in this game as the line continues to be pushed down. They are a public team with a strong recent history and Bill Belichick has been an excellent underdog. New England is 23-10-1 ATS catching points the past nine years. But this is also a team in a bad scheduling spot. Coming out of their bye on November 1st the Pats played division rival Miami, traveled to Indianapolis to face their biggest playoff rival on Monday Night Football, hosted division rival New York in a revenge situation, and travel to Miami next week where a victory will clinch the division. In the meantime they are going to New Orleans to play the Saints in a non-conference affair. The Patriots are 0-3 straight up this season in true road games, losing to the Jets, Broncos and Colts. Their only win away from home this season was in London where they spanked the one win Bucs. While the Patriots have played important games week after week the Saints haven't been tested since beating Atlanta in this very same venue four weeks ago. They are off Carolina, St Louis and Tampa Bay. New Orleans has played to the level of their competition this season. They have been at their best when taking on teams in the playoff hunt. They beat Philadelphia on the road by 26, the NY Giants at home by 21, Miami on the road by 12 and Atlanta at home by 8. They beat the Jets by 14 here, the same team who the Patriots have split with. New Orleans hasn't played well as of late for two reasons. They have played an easy schedule so they have been disinterested, and they have had some injuries to key personnel. But word is that New Orleans is getting some of those key contributors back tonight. New Orleans has one of the best pass defenses in the league and they are a perfect 8-0 at home this year winning every game by 8 points or more. Now in basically a win and cover situation we get a focused host who knows this is the biggest regular season game they will play in the last three months of the season. You know the Patriots can't say that.
PLAY NEW ORLEANS
Gold Club NBA Selection
Philadelphia at Dallas
The Sixers are playing their second game of a back to back situation after losing last night in San Antonio 97-89 getting 12 points. Tonight marks their third game in four days with the starters logging 37, 35 and 41 fourth quarter minutes. Tonight they are playing without rest and getting less points from a team outscoring the opposition by a full point more than the team they played last night in San Antonio. Therefore we have a worse scheduling situation for Philadelphia and they are getting less points from arguably a better team. Dallas is also playing their third game in four days but they had last night off. As opposed to the Sixers the Maverick starters logged just 28, 9 and 20 fourth quarter minutes the past three games. As a whole the Dallas starters don't put in the extended minutes as their Sixers counterparts. Dallas is off an embarrassing 111-95 loss at Cleveland. The Mavericks allowed an effective field goal percentage in that game of .635. It's the first time all season an opponent has shot over 60% against Dallas in this category. They had held their previous two opponents to under 100 points before that game. Dallas is 25-15 ATS off a loss the past two years including a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Not only have the Mavericks covered the spread after those defeats this year but they have done so by a combined 79 1/2 points! Dallas has cashed 3 of the last 4 times they hosted the Sixers and with only New Jersey and Memphis on deck we expect Dallas to be fully focused here.
Bryan Leonard 11/30
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