200♦ OVER Patriots/Saints - New England's success has always been to establish the rushing game to set up the passing game for Tom Brady. We saw it become very effective two years ago when the Pats ran the gamut and looked to go unbeaten wire-to-wire.
With the Saints, who have four more rushing attempts (324) this season than passing attempts (320), they bring a deadly trio of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush out of the backfield and are gaining 154 rushing yards per game. Makes you wonder how the Saints score all those points, right?
Alright so here's my theory ... since the Saints aren't necessarily that good at stopping the run, and the Patriots are looking to force the ball into Drew Brees' hands, I see a shootout ensuing.
I see both teams using balance to their advantage, and the score to be near our target point by halftime. You better believe both teams are going for knockout punches in the first half. There's no doubt the Saints want to do this on their own field, getting the deafening crowd involved as early as possible.
And the Patriots, well, remember a couple weeks back against Indianapolis? Same applies, as they want to jump right out to a big lead the same way they did against the Colts ... only this time I believe they hold the lead, which is where my 50♦ N.E. PATRIOTS play comes in.
I think there is a learning curve here, and after losing at Denver and Indy the same way - by relinquishing late leads, the Patriots have learned their lesson and won't be giving anything up this time around.
I like our chances with the road pup here, but I love my chances even more with the total soaring past the number.
Chris Jordan 11/30
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