The Memphis Grizzlies had yesterday an incredible letdown in the fourth quarter against the Clippers by being outscored 7-33 in just 12 minutes of basketball. In my opinion, that ridiculous run happened due to fatigue of their best players. Note that the Grizzlies were outscored by 40-54 in the paint and that was surprising, because they lead the league in that department averaging 51.1 points in the paint per game. They are also one of the best teams in the league in fast break points and they were outplayed as well by the Clippers in that department by 12-22. Finally they were clearly outrebounded by 30-47 with 17-6 edge for the Clippers in offensive boards. These three factors are a good measure of the effort of the teams and we can make the conclusion that the Grizzlies were dead tired at the end of the game.
They were coming from a huge win in Portland in a late night game (10:00PM) and yesterday's contest in LA was an early game (03:30 PM), so I wasn't completely surprised of such letdown. Let’s not forget that the Grizzlies have a short roster, in which they absolutely depend on just 4 players: Mayo, Gay, Randolph and Gasol! These 4 players are receiving at least 72% each of the team's total minutes and when they're tired, the Grizzlies simply can’t be competitive! I remember that yesterday Gasol and Mayo played 42 minutes, while Randolph and Gay played 40 minutes! The last time the Grizzlies had a back to back game in a tough spot, they were spanked by 79-104 in Houston!
The worst scenario for them is to play today the second game of a back to back series, especially against a team like the Jazz! We all know that the Jazz have a strong home court and they are in a pretty favorable spot, as they are in the middle of a span full of home games. In their last game, they spanked their divisional rivals Portland by 108-92 and after this contest, their next game is only next Friday, so we are dealing with a team who will be focused tonight. Last season, after a Jazz home win by double digits points and with a least one day to rest, they went 6-1 ATS in their next game at home. I expect a rested Jazz to run out of the building the tired Grizzlies for a comfortable double digits win and that’s why I’m taking the Jazz in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Utah Jazz (-10)
I believe that this game will be a low scoring affair and according to my numbers we have a nice 5-points edge and this play was close to be a best bet. Note that we are not dealing with two confident teams right now, as both teams have lost their last 4 games and so, they will look to bounce back tonight.
The Bulls were a top defensive team in the first 2 weeks of the competition, but they were literally spanked in every loss coming for this game. In fact, they allowed 108, 112, 122 and 105 points in those games, however I feel that this won’t happen tonight because the Bucks don’t have the same power as the Lakers, Nuggets, Blazers and the Jazz – the Bulls' last 4 opponents. During the 4-game losing streak, the Bulls were outmuscled and outplayed in the front. Joakim Noah couldn’t handle on his own the powerful opponent’s frontcourt, as the Bulls allowed 60, 52, 50 and 62 points in the paint in those contests! For instance, Pau Gasol shot 9-15 FG, LaMarcus Aldridge 10-16 FG and Boozer 12-14 FG against them. The good news for the Bulls is that the Bucks don’t have a powerful frontcourt and so they won’t surely be massacred in the front. Late news tells us that Andrew Bogut is probable for this contest, but he will certainly be rusty coming from an injury and he isn't also the typical dominant center that the Bulls should be afraid off. Bottom line, I expect the Bulls to have a better defensive performance tonight because the Bucks don’t have the same weapons as the Bulls latest opponents.
Meanwhile, the Bulls offense is a stagnant unit. For only once, they topped the century mark in points this season and they are shooting only 43.3% from the field – good for the 4th worst mark in the league! The Bucks defense is a pretty underrated unit, as they are the 8th most efficient defense in the league. Like the Bulls, the Bucks faced some top offensive teams lately and it isn’t a surprise that in their 4 losses, they allowed more than 100 points in each contest, so in order to get back to the wins, head coach Scott Skilles knows what to do: defense!
These two teams have already faced each other this season and the Bulls won by 83-81. In that game. both teams didn’t reach the 40% mark from the field and even though I don’t expect such thing to happen tonight, we are dealing with a 195.5 points line, when my fair line is 190 points. Take the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 195,5 @1.91
NBA - 503 Philadelphia 76ers @ 504 Dallas Mavericks
This is a situational play that I had in my mind after watching the Sixers last night against the Spurs. The Sixers defense is absolutely dismal and lacks all imaginable fundamentals to be a good defensive team. They are in a 5-game losing streak and during that span, they allowed their opponents to shot 51.9, 48.0, 47.3, 48.7, 51.4 and 48.7% from the field and the only reason why in 2 of those losses they didn’t allow 100-points was due to the slow pace of the respective games. Without Louis Williams and Elton Brand, head coach Eddie Jordan decided to play the team's last game with Thaddeus Young at the PF position and Willie Green at the SG spot, so the Sixers were a fast and small team on court. For tonight I expect the same to happen for the Sixers, as they don’t have any other reliable options.
The problem for them is that the Mavericks are shooting lights out nowadays and they won’t have any problems in exploring the Sixers poor defense. The Mavericks are coming from a loss in Cleveland against the Cavaliers and so, they will be fired up for tonight. Last season after losing one game and playing the next contest at home, the Over cashed in 12 of 16 opportunities. These two teams like to run and score in transitions, as the Sixers are second in the league in Fast Break points averaging 19.2 ppg, while the Mavs are the 6th best team averaging 15.1 points per game. Last night the Sixers were able to shot only 39.3% from the field against the Spurs and according to my numbers, that game was a extremely slow paced game (good job for the Spurs in turning the game into a halfcourt contest) and the Sixers can’t perform in such conditions. However, take a look at their 25 fast break points in that game and this is a clear sign of what they will want to do tonight. I expect the Mavericks to easily reach the century mark in points, while the Sixers will hang around them. Take the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 199 @1.91
You want to talk about letdown... Did you see my Nuggets loose to the second worst team in basketball last night AT HOME! Them and Abe Lincoln have something... Neither one of them could finish a play!
Analysis: I believe that this game will be a low scoring affair and according to my numbers we have a nice 5-points edge and this play was close to be a best bet. Note that we are not dealing with two confident teams right now, as both teams have lost their last 4 games and so, they will look to bounce back tonight.
The Bulls were a top defensive team in the first 2 weeks of the competition, but they were literally spanked in every loss coming for this game. In fact, they allowed 108, 112, 122 and 105 points in those games, however I feel that this won't happen tonight because the Bucks don't have the same power as the Lakers, Nuggets, Blazers and the Jazz - the Bulls' last 4 opponents. During the 4-game losing streak, the Bulls were outmuscled and outplayed in the front. Joakim Noah couldn't handle on his own the powerful opponent's frontcourt, as the Bulls allowed 60, 52, 50 and 62 points in the paint in those contests! For instance, Pau Gasol shot 9-15 FG, LaMarcus Aldridge 10-16 FG and Boozer 12-14 FG against them. The good news for the Bulls is that the Bucks don't have a powerful frontcourt and so they won't surely be massacred in the front. Late news tells us that Andrew Bogut is probable for this contest, but he will certainly be rusty coming from an injury and he isn't also the typical dominant center that the Bulls should be afraid off. Bottom line, I expect the Bulls to have a better defensive performance tonight because the Bucks don't have the same weapons as the Bulls latest opponents.
Meanwhile, the Bulls offense is a stagnant unit. For only once, they topped the century mark in points this season and they are shooting only 43.3% from the field - good for the 4th worst mark in the league! The Bucks defense is a pretty underrated unit, as they are the 8th most efficient defense in the league. Like the Bulls, the Bucks faced some top offensive teams lately and it isn't a surprise that in their 4 losses, they allowed more than 100 points in each contest, so in order to get back to the wins, head coach Scott Skilles knows what to do: defense!
These two teams have already faced each other this season and the Bulls won by 83-81. In that game. both teams didn't reach the 40% mark from the field and even though I don't expect such thing to happen tonight, we are dealing with a 195.5 points line, when my fair line is 190 points. Take the Under in here.
Andre Gomes NBA 11/30
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Them and Abe Lincoln have something... Neither one of them could finish a play!