Dave Malinsky 11/30
Top of the Ticket – Side
Philadelphia 76ers (+11) over DALLAS MAVERICKS
4* #503 PHILADELPHIA over DALLAS
Usually when we see an NBA line this high we are dealing with a dominating favorite that has the tools to build a margin, or an underdog that shows issues when having to step way up in class. That is not the case here at all, and the oddsmakers have set this one far beyond the game flow that we project. Dallas brings severe limitations in terms of this role. As long as Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion and Jason Terry are in uniform there is the veteran savvy to go out and win games, but without Josh Howard, Erick Damiper, and Quintin Ross the depth to blow anyone out is not there. Tonight they will not have the mind-set either, with this being the fifth game in seven days, including a court change each time, and they head back on the road immediately afterwards. Rick Carlisle has gone 4-7 as a double figure home favorite since taking over in Dallas, and this is a setting in which he would be more than happy to merely grind out a win and move on. The fact that he gave his team yesterday off, instead of practicing for this matchup, was an admission on his part of how grueling this travel stretch is (they will play eight games in 12 days, all with court changes). For the 76ers there is not culture shock in terms of stepping up in class ? having played at Cleveland, Boston and San Antonio in the last 10 days this actually represents a step down. While they lack the end-game polish of the league?s elite, which leaves outright wins out of their grasp, note that they went 3-0 ATS against that tough trio, losing the games by a combined 17 points. They are also no strangers to playing the second night of back-to-back games on the road, going 3-0 ATS as an underdog in those settings, and they will get a boost off the bench tonight with the return of Elton Brand (he could have played last night, but they do not think he is ready for back-to-back outings yet, so he will get floor action in this one since they have Tuesday off). Philadelphia led at both Cleveland and Boston in the fourth quarter of those recent close defeats, and the 76ers never lost contact at San Antonio tonight. They are in the hunt all the way here against an opponent that lacks the athleticism, depth and energy to throw a knockout punch.
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