Two weeks ago in my weekly TV show and various radio interviews, I was all over New England at Indianapolis, telling everyone to grab the points with the Patriots and even suggesting a smaller moneyline wager because I believed they were going to win the game outright. A cover they got, but you know how the final score went thanks to Bill Belichick's fourth-down gamble. Lost among the controversy over that call was the fact the Pats could not stop Indy's offense after opening up a big double-digit lead in the first half. Peyton Manning kept firing, marching the Colts up and down the field, putting them in the position to win the game if they got the ball back one more time, and Belichick's gamble presented them with that golden opportunity.
Both the Colts and Saints were undefeated and playing at home when the Patriots came calling. The difference between the two clubs? Indianapolis can't run the ball a lick; New Orleans entered the weekend with the league's No. 5 rushing attack as Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush have spearheaded a unit that's averaged 154.3 yards per game (4.8 ypc). That triumvirate tackles a New England defense that allows opposing ball carriers to average 4.4 yards per carry. Last week at home the Jets' Thomas Jones ran for 103 yards on 21 carries despite his team falling behind by 3 TDs early so this is not a stop unit that can be counted on.
The Patriots have more problems defensively that just stopping the run; their pass rush has generated just 18 sacks on the season. You don't beat Drew Brees, who has one of the quickest - if not the quickest - release in pro football, unless you pressure him continuously. Just ask Philadelphia's blitzers. Or those of the Giants. And with a strong ground game to rely on for the first time in his tenure in New Orleans, it's no wonder Brees is helming an offense averaging 36.9 points and 420.5 yards per game.
Where the Saints have been particularly dangerous this year is in the second half of games where they've outscored their foes 188-78. That margin swells to 105-24 in the fourth quarter. Both stats are troublesome for a New England defense that couldn't withstand the second-half comebacks of the Colts and Broncos, two previous undefeated teams they lost to on the road this season. And the Patriots often seem to have a patchwork defense held together by bailing wire and aging veterans like Junior Seau.
With the focus on Brees and the Saints' prolific scoring attack, their defense often gets overlooked, but on that side of the ball they entered the weekend leading the league with 29 takeaways, including 20 interceptions. Darren Sharper has rejuvenated the secondary and that takeaway figure is stunning considering the team had just 22 for all of last season.
Put aside the Belichick mystique against undefeated teams for a moment; he's 0-3 SU in those match-ups this season, losing to the Jets, Broncos and Colts, all on the road. I'm telling you to put that aside, but I know the public isn't and they're also buying into the "don't bet against the Patriots as an underdog" shtick, too. That's why the price of this game has dropped steadily all week long. But public perception is often wrong, especially on Monday nights, and tonight will be no exception as the Saints expose New England's defensive flaws while proving to the NFL - and the viewing public - they are for real, breaking open a tight game after intermission before posting a solid 35-24 win.
Strategy Note:
The price of this game ranges from 1 to 3 depending on where you play it. That's a huge margin, but that's why you've got to shop around before placing your wager. Here's the deal: I would buy down the 1/2 point if you've got a line of 1 1/2, 2, 2 1/2, 3 or even 3 1/2. Now there is absolutely no reason you should be stuck with the Saints at 3 or 3 1/2, but who knows if your local guy is any good? In Vegas right now, as of late Sunday night, New Orleans is -1 at the Hilton and Mirage. Yet I can walk down the strip and find them at -2 1/2 as well. And offshore, I see one place - and you know the place that always inflates the price on favorites - that they're shockingly -3. So, again, buy down the 1/2 point between 1 1/2 and 3 1/2 points. Always better to be safe than sorry.
Al is up and down. if you catch him on a good streak he can win you some cash. On the flip side, i have witnessed him loose 7 straight plays. IMO- this could go either way...but it is gonna be a fun one to watch.
I use to follow him and Budin-regardless of what they put out I played it--not any more Budin is literally sitting at 50% of his plays (regardless of his "crews or connection") and his posted dimes of profit are misleading they go back 3 freakin years. Back then he couldn't lose a play. Demarco generally puts out the same big plays as Budin but he as been streaky this year. Play with caution with both of these guys. I personally liked the saints before they put their picks, now that lang is the saints, its hard to play big money and bet against the pats--im sitting this one out.
Al Demarco 11/30/2009
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