[LLXC]

PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 45 Belmont
EXPERT: Ben Burns
TITLE: *10* #1 Div. Total of '09! (9-1 TOTALS RUN)
REASON FOR PICK: I'm playing on San Diego and KC to finish UNDER the total. These teams saw their earlier meeting land right on the closing number, finishing with 44 (37-7 SD) combined points. Along with other important numbers like 37 and 41, that number (44) is quite a common final combined score. This afternoon's rematch has a slightly higher o/u number, one which is above that key number. I believe that provides us with excellent value.

Including the earlier 'push,' the UNDER is a profitable 6-3-1 the last 10 times that these teams faced each other. Four of the last five series meetings here at San Diego have finished below the total. Last year's game here had an o/u line of 47.5 but finished with only 39 points. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 13-6 the last 19 meetings here at San Diego.

The Chargers come off a great defensive effort. In fact, they limited the Broncos to a mere three points. Despite facing the likes of the Giants and Eagles, the Chargers have now held five straight opponents to 23 points or less. Four of those opponents scored 20 points or less. Overall, those five teams averaged just 13.8 points. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was 3-1-1 in those games. In five divisional games this season, the Chargers are allowing an average of only 16 points and 269 total yards.

The Chiefs saw their most recent game finish above the total, a surprise 27-24 OT win vs. the World Champion Steelers. Even though the final score did finish above the number and even though they did give up a lot of passing yards, holding the Steelers to 24 points was impressive. In their most recent road game, the Chiefs allowed only 10 points and 271 total yards. They've seen two of their last three road games stay below the total with those opponents averaging just 13.3 points. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 13-7 their last 20 road games. Even including the 44 point game vs. the Chargers, the Chiefs have still seen their three divisional games average only 31 combined points with the UNDER going 2-0-1. While the Chiefs allowed an average of only 280 yards in those games, their offense averaged just 11 points.

The Chargers, currently favored by nearly two have seen the UNDER go 10-5 the last 15 times that they were listed as double-digit favorites. That includes a 3-1 mark the last couple of years and 1-0 mark this season. The Chargers have also seen the UNDER go 7-1 their last eight games played in the month of November. I expect them to deliver another strong defensive effort with the UNDER improving to 5-1 the last six times that they played a home game with a total ranging from 42.5 to 45. *10 Top 2009 AFC West Total

[LLXC]

PICK: Baltimore Ravens
Your pick will be graded at: -7.5 Belmont
EXPERT: Ben Burns
TITLE: **18-7 L25 NFL!** Burns' Sunday MAIN EVENT!
REASON FOR PICK: I'm laying the points with BALTIMORE. I won with the Steelers when these teams met in January. The champs have been good to me this year, too. However, as the saying goes, that was then and this is now.

For starters, last year's playoff meeting came at Pittsburgh. This one's at Baltimore. Naturally, that's huge. Perhaps even more important, the Steelers are now expected to be without Ben Rothlisberger. Considering that all "Big Ben" does is win, that's extremely significant.

Making matters worse, experienced backup Charlie Batch isn't available either. That means that Dennis Dixon will get the call. While Dixon may one day develop into a solid starter, he's only ever thrown one career pass. Making his first career start at Baltimore is no easy task. While the Ravens lost a tough one vs. the Colts last week, they still played very well. Additionally, we saw what they did the last time that they were on National TV, pitching a shutout against the Browns.

While both teams will be without key defenders, facing a first-time rookie, I feel that Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and co. will have the advantage on that side of the ball. Of course, Reed is always capable of taking one the other way, something he does regularly when featured on National TV.

Joe Flacco admittedly struggled vs. the Steelers last year. He's got another year under his belt now though and he's not expected to have to face Pittsburgh's star safety Troy Polamalu. I expect him to have a MUCH better game and look for him to lead his team to the win and cover. *9 Main Event

[chase1]

I just can't get over how horrible this guy is and people still ask for his picks. I think he lost another GOY on some CFL Grey Cup lol. He can't even win at that where the lines are probably not sharp at all. He has been great fade material.

[Ericg320]

He is 55% this season. He was 64% the past 3 weeks over all. He went 2-3 NFL yest but is on 18-9 run NFL. I watched him all year and he is one of the best cappers period.

I trust 3 cappers Boooj, Lawrence and Burns. They all lost yesterday. It happens....

[chase1]

It happens all the time with Burns. All of those records he talks about is smoke and mirrors. I know his record too and it is at best 50%. Believe me I followed him at the beginning of the season and feel like a fool for falling for his complete BS. I guarantee you he is down units wise... no doubt about it. Burns the best? How can you even think that? Especially since you say you know his record?

I do trust Booj in college and Procapperwins is my guy in the NFL. I highly recommend you check PC out. Everything is documented for the year not just some last 10 plays crap. They are 64-34 NFL and not bad in college either.