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NFL
(5-9 ATS 2009)
(10-18 ATS opinions)

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First game already went off...

2 Star Selection
ILLINOIS STATE (-7) over St. Bonaventure
29-Nov-09 01:30 PM Pacific Time
St. Bonaventure is an up and coming program under coach Mark Schmidt and the Bonnies are 4-0 ATS so far this season. However, the Bonnies appear to be a bit overrated now and they are not likely to continue to make 64.4% of their 2-point shots, as they've done so far against a weak schedule of teams. St. Bon basically has the same team that they had last season and I expected them to be 4 or 5 points better than last year's team, but so far they've been 9 points better than last season due to the extremely good shooting, which I chalk up to random positive variance. If I assume that St. Bonaventure is actually the best 2-point shooting team in the nation then they'd be about 3 1/2 points worse than they've been so far this season based on what the best 2-point shooting team in the nation usually shoots. That would put the Bonnies rating about where I thought it should be, which is 4 1/2 points better than last year's team. That would result in a fair line of Illinois State by 9 points in this game and the Redbirds apply to a very good 112-47-11 ATS home momentum situation while the Bonnies apply to a negative 42-88-7 ATS road letdown situation. I'll only make this a 2-Star just in case the Bonnies continue to shoot lights out. I'll take Illinois State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 3-Stars at -6.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at -7 or less, 3-Stars at -6.

4 Star Selection
NC Wilmington (-3 1/2) over ELON
29-Nov-09 02:00 PM Pacific Time
Elon was a bad team last year and the Phoenix lost their two best players to graduation, including star Ola Atoyebi, who lead the team in scoring and rebounding while making 58% of his shots. Losing a guy like that off a bad team will usually make that team worse and the Phoenix are worse this year under new coach Matt Matheny and they're already 0-4 ATS. NC Wilmington, meanwhile, went from 20 wins two years ago to just 7 wins last year, but they've bounced back strong so far this year and it doesn't appear to be a fluke. The Seahawks were shy on experience and depth last season, but they return the core of that young team that is now experienced and added transfer John Fields, who is averaging 15.0 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game while shooting 63% from the field. Freshman Keith Rendleman is also contributing more than expected, averaging 7 points, 6 boards and 1.2 blocks per game. NC Wilmington's top two players, Fields and Chad Tomko, both missed a game at the beginning of the season as the Seahawks started 0-2 straight up and 0-2 ATS, but they're playing much better the last 4 games with everyone available (3-0 ATS) and appear to be underrated. My ratings favor NC Wilmington by 7 1/2 points in this game and the Seahawks also apply to a very good 110-41-2 ATS early season indicator that plays on teams that were horrible last season but have shown improvement. I'll take NC Wilmington in a 4-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less, for 3-Stars from -4 1/2 to -5 and 2-Stars at -5 1/2 or -6.

Play Strength: 4-Stars at -4 or less, 3-Stars at -4 1/2 or -5, 2-Stars up to -6.