NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH +10 (8%)
NOTRE DAME MONEYLINE +320 (4%)
Line Note: These are two separate plays, one on the moneyline and one on the spread. Let us know if you have any questions.
We like Notre Dame to close the season out strong here today against an overvalued and overrated Stanford team. This could be Charlie's last game as head coach for Notre Dame and this is certainly a "Win One for the Coach" type affair.
Notre Dame has been competitive in all of their losses this season because QB Jimmy Clausen has the ability to make big plays when it counts. NOTRE DAME'S WORST LOSS OF THE SEASON WAS BY 7 POINTS TO GUESS WHO? PAC 10 FOE USC. That being said, this is a REVENGE spot for the Irish here as beating Stanford will give them a 1-1 split on the year against Pac 10 opponents.
The hype of Stanford and Toby Gerhart has made this an over inflated line mostly fueled by pundits and newspapers. Had the Irish won that close game against UCONN last week and you would see a 3 point or less impost. Stanford is still deflated over their loss last week to Cal and missing out on the Pac 10 title game. All that hype and talk, and now Stanford is faced with just a bowl game to look forward to and a win here makes no difference. We can't find one single reason to support Stanford in even winning this game, much less covering. LET DOWN.
Irish 28-14.
DUKE BLUE DEVILS +4.5 (6%)
Another ACC Rivalry game on tap for Saturday. Who is Wake Forest to be laying points against anyone right now??? This is a team that has failed miserably time and time again in must win situations and it's too late to salvage their season. Riley Skinner is an overrated QB that makes costly mistakes when called upon.
The problem for Wake Forest is Duke really wants this game. The Demon Deacons have won the last nine games in the series, though they were in position to lose two of the last three games when Duke's winning field-goal attempts went awry.
Both teams are going to miss the post-season, so no extra motivation there. Wake Forest certainly has not motivation to win this game with the way the season has gone. However, Duke is a different story. Duke and Wake Forest often have been compared because they're private schools that have had periods of football struggles, so this is an important game for the Blue Devils so they don't go an entire decade without defeating Wake Forest. A win here will go a long way for recruiting purposes as David Cutcliffe has turned this program around with some big ACC wins the past 2 years. We believe he has his team ready for another close one with the Deacons. The points is a gracious gift as this one will be decided by a field goal or less.
Again, who is Wake Forest to be laying points against anyone???
SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS +7 (5%)
Line Note: If your book has 6.5, then buy the hook.
On the same level of Wake Forest, who is Miami to be laying points against anyone on the road??? To put in perspective, this is a Miami team that has 3 road wins this season, a 4 point win over FSU (Should have lost that game), and a 1 point game over Wake Forest (Should have lost that one too), and a 20 point rout over UCF. Folks, South Florida is not UCF and Miami will struggle in this game. Just like they struggled on the road all season against quality home opponents. They lost to UNC and Va Tech on the road as the favorite making Miami now 1-3 ATS as road favorites this season.
When you talk about motivation, the Bulls have one thing in mind, and that's beating the Miami Hurricanes. They have had this game circled on the schedule all season. For nearly three decades Florida, Florida State and Miami have been among the most successful college football teams in the nation. Leavitt launched USF’s program from scratch in mid-90’s, aspiring someday to be major players like the Gators, Seminoles and Hurricanes.
Defeating Florida State in September was a step forward. Beating No. 19 Miami (8-3) on Saturday would salvage a disappointing second half of the season, as well as move the Bulls (7-3) closer to creating a Big Four. “It’s pretty exciting for us to have the opportunity to play Miami. … Maybe I won’t feel that way after the game,” Leavitt said, breaking into laughter.
“I wanted to make this happen because I thought it was important for the University of South Florida. I want this program to go. It’s going to be pretty exciting. It’s on TV, the whole nine yards. We’re opposite Florida-Florida State. That’s pretty big. That’s pretty powerful. Now, you win a game like this, that’d be pretty big.”
Both USF and Miami have a similar style offenses with a dual threat at QB. However, USF has one dominant advantage over Miami, it's their defense. Miami has relied on the arm of Jacory Harris all season, and when he has a big game it shows on the scoreboard. However, USF is going to get up for this game being their home closer for the senior class. The Bulls rank first in the Big East in pass defense, allowing foes just 191 yards a game through the air. The Bulls have 12 interceptions and 24 sacks. With a similar style offense, the key to this game will be turnovers. However, Miami hasn't generated any and it certainly won't start today on the road against a hungry Bulls team. The Canes have only seven interceptions for the season (tied for 11th in the ACC and 91st in the country), and only four of those are from defensive backs. We expect this one to be a close battle and one turnover will change the game late in the second half. The Bulls have had the pass defense all season that makes big plays time and time again. Why would anything change in a game of this magnitude on the home field? CHECK MATE
OKLAHOMA STATE +8 (5%)
Line Note: If your book has 7.5, then buy the hook.
When you look at both teams in this rivalry THIS SEASON, Oklahoma State is clearly the better team. This is a senior laden squad that will be laying their entire college careers on the line to beat Oklahoma for the first time in their tenure. The bonus is a win here spells a BCS berth for Okie State, something Oklahoma will be missing out this season on with 5 losses.
Bottom line, this isn't the same Sooner team of the past as the Cowboys have flipped the tables. Without Sam Bradford, this just isn't the same explosive team. The only real threat the Sooners have is their running game and look out, Oklahoma State hasn't allowed a 100 yard rusher all season and rank 6th in run defense. CHECK MATE!
Take the points.
UAB BLAZERS +3 (5%)
Central Florida has been great to back as the underdog, but are now asked to play the role of favorite on the road.
We had UAB last week against ECU and it took MIRACLES for ECU to cover. UAB had plenty of chances to get back in that game, but turned the ball over at opportune times to give the Pirates the advantage. That being said, had UAB covered the number, they would be the 3 point favorite here in their home closer.
Joseph Webb is a dual threat QB for UAB and can make the type of plays needed with his arm and legs. A win here at home can get the Blazers bowl eligible, not to mention UAB is 3-1 at home and the Knights 1-3 on the road.
The Blazers have all the motivation in the world to win this game right here and we expect it to be a tight one. The points are a gracious gift not to be ignored.
FLORIDA STATE +24.5 (5%)
OK, we will bite. What a ridiculous spread! This is still a rivalry game folks and the Noles are working with revenge after Florida has won the last five in this series. However, what you should know is that Bowden has gotten his players highly motivated for games like these. The Noles are 5-1 ATS in games against undefeated teams from Game 8 on.
Florida has been rolling this season, however as we saw with Alabama yesterday, anything can happen in these rivalry games. The Gators have burned their backers recently as well. Prior to blasting Florida International, the Gators were just 1-4 against the spread their last 5, all as double-digit favorites. Note Florida plays Bama next week for the SEC title game and you can bet it's on the mind of the coaches and players. Needless to say, a non-conference game against FSU is more of a chore than a pleasure. A quick run of the numbers shows us the Gators are a dismal 0-4 ATS at home in games before SEC rival Alabama. CHECK MATE.
SOUTH CAROLINA +4 (5%)
LINE NOTE: Buy the hook if your book shows 3.5.
Bottom line, when you talk about rival games, your talking about two teams that literally hate each other's guts! And none bigger in the south than the annual Clemson vs. South Carolina game. Witness the brawl at the end of the 2004 game that cost both teams the opportunity to play in a bowl—and that should help provide motivation for both teams here today.
You have to understand this is not about bowl chances or bids to the BCS, as both teams have already secured a bowl spot and Clemson plays for the ACC title next week, win or lose. That being said, this game comes down to pure hatred and who wants it more.
Does any team want this game more than South Carolina? This is a team that has now lost 3 consecutive games and truth be told, had #1 Florida on the ropes, but just could not pull through. And when you look at the level of competition these two teams have faced, it's a no brainer that SC has the tougher schedule. SC recently lost at Tennessee, at Arkansas, then at home to Florida, the #1 team in the country. Clemson has been cruising over weak ACC competition including recent wins over Virginia, NC State, FSU, and Coastal Carolina.
Bottom line, we expect for SC to come out with a surge of emotion in this game and do enough to get a close win. They need this one for the coach, for the team, and for the overall perception of the program. Clemson will be looking forward to their date next week with Ga Tech having locked up their conference title game bid.
You take Clemson's road games this season into perspective and you see a 2-2 SU / 1-3 ATS record with a miracle win over Miami by just 3 points and a 10 point win over the weakest team in the ACC, NC State. All this points to the fact SC should be favored in this game, however the recent 3 game slide has skewed the value. We will take it.
SYRACUSE +14 (5%)
Line Note: If your book shows 13.5, buy the hook.
No doubt UCONN got a big win last week at Notre Dame, however that doesn't guarantee a blowout today over an improving Syracuse squad. The last 2 weeks the Orange have surprised everyone with a win over Rutgers and a 1 point heartbreaker over L-Ville. A win here today puts Syracuse on a 5 win season, much better than years past.
UCONN got their emotional win for the fallen last week against the Irish, and you love to see a win like that. However, that could spell a letdown here today against feisty Syracuse in their season closer. UCONN is not built to blow out teams. They run the football and burn the clock. The only blowout you will see all season by the Huskies is against Rhode Island, a non FBS opponent. Their wins against quality schools have come by 7, 8, 13, and 3 points.
Strip this thing down to the bones and this is a conference game with both teams sporting a 1 win season in Big East play.
UCONN by 10.
OTHER STRONG OPINIONS
South Carolina +1.5 First Half (2%)
Southern Miss +7 (2%)
BYU -7 (2%)
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NFLCHOICE College picks 11/28
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