Scott Spreitzer Blowout GOY

Game: Baylor at Texas Tech Nov 28 2009 6:00PM
Prediction: Texas Tech
Reason: I'm laying the points with Texas Tech on Saturday night. Earlier this week I heard some folks in a local Las Vegas sports book talking about the potential letdown by the Red Raiders this week. I can understand why some would feel a letdown would be in store. After all, the Red Raiders just throttled the mighty Oklahoma Sooners. But instead of a letdown, I believe Tech is just hitting their stride. The offense sputtered a bit (relatively speaking) on the road, but piled up 549 yards in the 41-13 thrashing of Oklahoma in Lubbock. This week's game is a neutral site contest, being played in Arlington. Few of the Baylor-faithful will be making the trip after a truly disappointing season. When the Bears lost "Super Soph" QB Robert Griffin, their season hit the skids. Griffin led the Bears to a 2-1 start with their only loss coming by eight, 30-22 to UConn. He owned a 65% completion rate with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. And of course, Griffin could run defenses right off the field with his feet. Freshman Nick Florence had to take over for Griffin and the offense hasn't been the same. Florence owns a 6-9, TD-INT ratio. And after averaging 36.3 ppg through their first four games, Baylor has scored a grand total of just 91 points in seven Big-12 contests, or 13 ppg. Take out the extremely strange result (40-32 win) in Columbia, Missouri, and the Bears have averaged just 8.5 ppg in their other six conference tilts. Now they face a Texas Tech squad who's likely to put up points-at-will against a Baylor defense that allows 28 ppg, and ranks 96th in the nation in total defense. The Bears allow a 45.6% third-down conversion rate, along with 4.6 yards per carry and have just nine sacks on the season. They're also in a "dead" spot having their slim bowl hopes completely dashed in last week's 38-3 loss to A&M. The team is ready for their disappointed, unfulfilled season to come to an end. Tech has beaten Baylor 13 straight times by an average margin of 28 ppg, and they're 8-2, 80% ATS the last 10 times. Look for Tech to roll on Saturday. I'm laying the points with Texas Tech. Thanks! GL! Scott.