168 Florida -24.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 167 Florida St.
Analysis:
*** "1st" NCAAFB 3* "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK ***
Last Sunday, we Cashed our 1st NFL "True Steam" GOW...Which was one of those bets that the sportsbooks were actually rooting for the Wiseguys to Win...Because the "Public Money" usually outweighs the "Wiseguy Money" in the NFL...And does so as well in NCAAFB, especially when there are "Marquee" teams involved...or when it's a "Prime-Time" Televised Game...
And once again this week...we are getting down on a Bet, that the books will almost definitely be cheering in as well...Because after having adjusted the number after being "Steamed" by the Betting Syndicates on 2 seperate days...from what I've been told, the "Public Money" continues to come in on the other side...And the books expect that trend to continue as we approach kick-off on Saturday...Which is when the majority of recreational bettors take their positions...
This week, we have an "Early Steam Move" that the Wiseguys absolutely love...Because even though many times, they jump on a "marquee" favorite early...in order to get a better number than the public will later...which both allows them to attempt a "middle" if they want...or to "edge-off" at a better number than what their players are betting...since we all know that almost all of these Outfits book...that is not the case with this bet...
The reason I know this is not simply because I still have plenty of friends who move "steam"...It's also because the Wiseguys went in and bet it on seperate days...After already being aware that the recreational bettors will be on Florida State, because they "perceive" it's too many points...
But the Wiseguys disagree...and according to my own Ratings/Numbers...so do I...
Bottom Line, the Syndicates wasted no time at all laying -21, 21.5, & 22 on FLORIDA as soon as the line went up at CRIS...This forced the adjustment all the way to -23 by the end of the day on Sunday...
But the Outfits weren't finished....because on Monday, they went back and bet FLORIDA -23 & -23.5...at those shops that didn't go immediately to -24...
More importantly, I've even seen a¢s high as -24.5 out there...And the fact that the Wiseguys have not gone ahead to try and work a nice "Middle"...tells me that they really are taking a "Major Position" on this game...With that said, don't be alarmed if you see this number drop some...Because like I said, the "public" bettors are expected to take the other side...And some Outfits may go ahead and attempt a "middle" later, because -21 & +24 or better...is hard to pass up for at least some of the money bet on Florida...
Regardless...I believe we are getting plenty of VALUE even at -24...Because I made my "Fair Line" -24, where it is now...But my "TRUE LINE" was a little higher than -27, and less than -28...Which is more than enough to justify a 3 Unit Bet, when the Wiseguys help Confirm it...
Let's go ahead and lay the chalk with FLORIDA...and see if we can follow up our 1st NFL Winner...with our 1st NCAAFB Winner...of "TRUE STEAM"...VR
double-dime bet 177 Washington St. / 178 Washington OVER 59.0 BetUS
Analysis: NCAAFB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
166 Oklahoma -7.0 (-120) Bookmaker.com vs 165 Oklahoma St.
Analysis:
** NCAAFB 2* "LATE STEAM" BET **
BUY the 1/2 POINT to -7...WISEGUYS grabbed the +10...to get a jump on all the public money being BET on OKLA ST...But just showed their "TRUE POSITION" by Unloading on OKLA through Locals about 5min ago...VR
vr 11/28
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