6* #147 MISSOURI over KANSAS
For one side we see as high of an energy level as perhaps any game they have played, with plenty of momentum, physical freshness, and a chip on their shoulder from losing to their arch rivals LY. The other side is a mess. So in the short price range being offered, we step it up.There are no questions about the Missouri focus here. The Tigers are on a two-game winning streak, and now that QB Blaine Gabbert has a healthy ankle again, the offense has produced four straight games of at least 32 points and at least 400 yards. The numbers could have been even better, as they coasted to a 36-17 win over Colorado after leading 33-3 at halftime. Since being held under wraps in the second half of that one it has been 468, 298 and 337 passing yards over the last three games, with no interceptions, and in the L2 outings there were also no sacks. Now Gabbert can continue his excellent rapport with WR Danario Alexander (at 1,411 receiving yards he is 4th on the All-Time Big 12 single season list), and RB Derrick Washington has also been cleared, after leaving the Iowa State win with a mild concussion last week. And what we hear from Washington are sentiments echoed throughout the Tiger roster and coaching staff -
"I'm a Missouri guy, so I've never liked KU. That's something that I grew up with. This game is going to be big. It's in Kansas City, my hometown, so I'm looking forward to that. A lot of guys are emotional this week." And this, from head man Gary Pinkel - "The day I got here, I learned a lot about this game from different alumni the moment I walked in. It's a great
Rivalry. Not every school has a rivalry like this, and there's a responsibility that goes along with that. This is very important to our students, fans, season-ticket holders, and alumni all around the world. We recognize that, and that's something that makes it very exciting."We hear no such excitement coming out of Lawrence, where the atmosphere is dark. It appears almost inevitable that Kansas and Mark Mangino are heading for a divorce, and it has a chance to be an ugly one – there may be more than $6 million at stake if he is terminated “for cause”, and the frustration levels are evident on both sides of the fence. Exacerbating matters is that all this has been coming out at the most difficult schedule stretch of their season. It started with an ugly 35-13 home loss to Oklahoma five games back; continued through a 21-point drubbing at Texas Tech the following week; then a tough loss the annual grudge match vs. Kansas State; before facing the Big 12’s two most physical teams, Nebraska and Texas, the last two weeks. It has been an ugly 0-5 SU and ATS slide in which they have lost to the pointspread by 50.5 points, showing how the markets remain tied to past performances and statistics instead of current realities. Now the fact that the relationship between Mangino, his players, and the university is so acrimonious, and the team is both physically and mentally worn out anyway, takes things from bad to worse. It is difficult to imagine the necessary focus and energy being there in practice to turn things around, and some of the on-field issues simply can not be solved – an inability to run the ball (six straight games of less than 100 yards rushing) is leaving Todd Reesing a sitting duck in the pocket (the Jayhawks are 100th in the nation in sacks allowed), and a slow secondary hasn’t intercepted a pass since October.Look for a fresh and hungry Missouri team to bring their “A” game here, and it leads to a blowout in a game that is being priced in an entirely different category.
5
* #165 OKLAHOMA STATE over OKLAHOMA
Last week we turned a 6* ticket against these Sooners with Texas Tech, and it would be difficult to imagine a pointspread win coming much easier – despite being touchdown underdogs in Lubbock, the Red Raiders rolled wire-to-wire in a 41-13 rout. And the game was every bit what the scoreboard indicated, with Oklahoma trailing 32-16 in first downs and 549-310 in total offense. That is simply their bottom line right now – physically the Sooners are not all that special special, having lost All-Americans Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham, and then many key role players, with that patchwork OL an issue all season. Yet the markets appear to believe that the past is still relevant, which explains another bad line again this week.The key Sooner issues are easy to see – an offense that has more than half of this week’s huddle not starters at their position in the opener vs. Brigham Young never developed. They only scored one TD vs. the Cougars that day, and in subsequent Big 12 showdowns it was the same story – one TD and (-16) yards rushing vs. Texas; no TD’s and 80 yards rushing vs. Nebraska; and then last week’s anemic showing at Texas Tech. So at 6-5, and having lost to every opponent that is heading for a bowl game, the price point is far from the true realities. Landry Jones will be an excellent QB in time, but without a ground game or quality pass blocking he has not been able to develop, and with seven INT’s in the last three games his confidence will be at a low ebb.Oklahoma State brings an entirely different energy. A win here means a trip to the Fiesta Bowl, and the pieces are in place. While the Sooners have struggled overland the Cowboys have used a veteran OL and a deep corps of RB’s to average over 200 rushing yards per game, and that has made life so much easier for Zac Robinson in the pocket, with the offense #4 in the nation in fewest sacks allowed. Now Robinson is back to health after sitting out vs. Colorado last week, and in his final regular-season game as a SR he brings so much more savvy and experience than counterpart Jones.It is the Cowboys defense that is the real key, however. There may not have been a more improved unit in the nation this season, going form #27 against the Run to #4; from #67 in Pass Efficiency to #27; and from 102nd in Sacks to 49th. That is why they have only lost one time in Big 12 play, and note that the 41-14 loss to Teas was not the fault of the defense, which allowed only 275 yards – it was five TO’s that did the trick.Oklahoma State has gone 8-3 ATS on the Big 12 road the last three seasons, showing how well Robinson has handled hostile environments, and that poise can lead to the outright win against a vulnerable favorite, with the points being offered a major cushion for our purposes.
4* SAN DIEGO STATE over U.N.L.V
Lame duck situations can be trying for any football program, but there are few that may be as extreme as the U.N.L.V. situation, where it was pretty much know early on that this would be the end for Mike Sanford. Now he has to go to the field one more time to fulfill his contract, and we have to wonder if the players and coaches might have even voted to forfeit this one, if given a choice. Our years of tracking shows that a bye week in such a lame duck setting actually causes more harm than good, and we can add this one to the list.As we have written so many times through the years, games are played on Saturday (usually), but are more often than not won during the week. That is when the game plans are set, the execution is tightened up in practice, and the conditioning work takes place to be ready to go hard for 60 minutes. But how hard were the Rebels working during their off week? And when they did return this week, is there any spark to be generated from a 5th straight losing season under Sanford? Who is staying after practice for extra film study? One player that absolutely is not is key WR Ryan Wolfe, the bright spot on the team, who is 12th in NCAA history with 283 career catches. Wolfe will not play because of an injury suffered in practice. He has 74 of the 175 pass receptions the team has produced this season. And keep in mind that this hapless defense rates 115th against the Run, 109th in Pass Efficiency, 114th in Total Defense and 113th in Sacks. Those sad numbers came from games in which they
were trying. We do not expect any special effort in what will be a dead atmosphere, with one of the smallest crowds to ever see a rebel home game expected.It is a different story for the Aztecs. Instead of being on the way out, Brady Hoke and his staff are in the first stages of a building process, and any kind of win is going to be valuable. There are serious building blocks for the future in SO QB Ryan Lindley and JR RB Brandon Sullivan (remember that his injury early in the season impeded the development of the offense), and the attitude at practice this week is that this is not the final game of 2009, but the opener for next season.The most intriguing aspect of this pointspread is that regardless of motivation or spark for this week, the Aztecs have been flat out better than the Rebels, winning the last three games by a combined 111-58, and in going 4-1 over the last five the combined count has been 142-84. An outright win here should not be considered an upset in any way