NELLYS GREENSHEET


COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 3 BOWLING GREEN (-7½) over Toledo
RATING 2 ILLINOIS (+18) over Cincinnati



CINCINNATI (-18) Illinois 11:00 AM
There is a lot on the line for the Bearcats and even though TCU appears to be ahead for the
moment for the potential next in line spot behind the SEC champion and Texas. Cincinnati’s
strength of schedule will be improving the next two weeks while TCU faces one of the worst
teams in FBS this week. Illinois has had a very disappointing season but the Illini have shown
some life of late, covering in three of the final four games and beating Michigan and
Minnesota. Illinois could be a dangerous underdog in this game because they are the far
better rushing team, averaging over 190 yards per game on the ground. Cincinnati’s offense
has been outstanding but the defense has been fairly average and the schedule has been
tougher for Illinois. Illinois has covered in eight of the last ten games as double-digit
underdogs while Cincinnati certainly may be looking past a 3-8 Illinois team considering how
big the game next week against Pittsburgh will be. Cincinnati has failed to cover in close calls
the last two games at home and this looks like a team that has passed its value apex while
Illinois has had two weeks to prepare for a season-making performance. Cincinnati is just 1-3
ATS at home this season and the Bearcats could have a tough transition working with two
QBs as original starter Tony Pike is certainly ready for full-time action. CINCINNATI BY 10




BOWLING GREEN (-7½) Toledo 1:00 PM
A win here would give Bowling Green a shot a making a bowl game getting to 7-5 as the
Falcons are riding a three-game win streak entering this home finale. Bowling Green has not
been a reliable home team in past years but they have two wins and covers at home this
season and three home losses came to teams that have combined to go 28-5. Toledo can get
to .500 with a win here but it is unlikely that the Rockets could find a call to a bowl game.
Toledo does have three outright wins as underdogs this season but the Rockets are also 8-20
ATS on the road since ’05. Last season Bowling Green out-gained Toledo by over 300 yards
in a 38-10 win and despite seeming like a rebuilding year, the Falcons have not fallen that far
this season. Toledo starter Aaron Opelt got very limited action last week and his status is
questionable this week while Bowling Green QB Tyler Sheehan quietly has delivered an
impressive season, completing over 64 percent with 21 TDs. BOWLING GREEN BY 14