Play New York (-6) over Denver* Game starts at 8:00 P.M. EST
(Top NFL Guaranteed Winner)
New York has covered the spread in 8 consecutive road games when the total posted is between 35.5 and 42 points and they have also covered the spread in 6 consecutive road games coming off a win by 6 points or less. New York has covered the spread in 12 of the last 15 road games coming off an OVER the total and they are averaging over 26 points a game on offense this season.
Play Title 5* Best Bet BRONCOS
Play Selected Point Spread: 6/-105
Going to go with the fading Broncos here. 4 in a row and counting. Denver is in absolute must win mode. We saw the Giants hold on last week in a must-must win. The cracks on the Giants D are for real. This isn't Spags defense anymore. Kyle Orton is back under center and he will be in sync with his WRs more than Simms was in his putrid game last week. NYG also whining like a bunch of sour-pusses about the short week holiday travel. Both teams still alive in their division title races. We will take the home team and the points here. 5* BRONCOS
While the Packers-Lions and Raiders-Cowboys matchups serve as appetizers on the NFL Thanksgiving menu, the main entree features the Giants traveling west to meet the Broncos.
Both the Giants and Broncos started the season with big winning streaks that made this matchup a possible Super Bowl preview at one point, but each now sits in the standings at 6-4 looking for a late season rally to make the playoffs.
This handicapper feels the wrong team has been favored in this matchup and that the Broncos will get the win as home dogs at Invesco Field.
With the Broncos losing their last four games and the Giants dropping four of their last five, the recent disappointment on the field has essentially made today’s matchup a must-win for both squads. The Giants struggled last week at home and could not hold a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons. A late touchdown pass caught by Tony Gonzales sent the game into overtime and although the Giants pulled out the win following that, it left question marks as to how they would continue performing down the stretch.
Although New York has one of the top offenses and defenses in the league when it comes to yards gained and allowed, the statistics in those categories do not tell the whole story. I feel you can draw lines through four or five of the six wins that the Giants have had for various reasons. Victories against Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Oakland, and Washington mean very little with how those teams have performed this year, as well as the statistics from those games.
Week 2 saw the only triumph against a team with a winning record when the Giants defeated the Cowboys 33-31, and just as with their win against the Falcons last week they needed a late field goal to do it.
The Broncos have faced a tougher schedule than the Giants this season and have been underrated by the oddsmakers for quite a few matchups along the way. Seven of the ten matchups that the Broncos have had this season were against teams with winning records, including wins over the Patriots, Cowboys, Bengals, and Chargers.
Despite a rematch against San Diego last week at home resulting in a blowout loss, I feel it will motivate the team more going into tonight’s game instead of the over-confidence that resulted from the winning streak that started the season. A players-only meeting was held on Tuesday by the Broncos and this will only help them get more fired up for tonight’s matchup against a marquee opponent in prime time.
The line opened for tonight’s game at the greek on Sunday night favoring the Giants by 3 ½ points. It took less than a half-hour for a huge jump to six points and at present is 6 ½. I feel the opening line was much closer to where this number should have been and that you could even make a case of favoring the Broncos by a few points.
This situation with the Giants having to travel west on only a few days of rest from an emotional overtime win on Sunday makes me feel they will not be ready in the Mile High city and should at least not be favored by this much. Any road favorite in the NFL (especially on short rest) needs to have shown some degree of consistency against quality opposition, and the Giants have not done that.
Also, with this being a Thanksgiving game having many recreational gamblers tuning in, you can also count on the line having a “New York bias” to it with many New York-ers backing the Giants for action here no matter what number they need to lay.
While the Broncos have not covered in their last two home dog spots, this situation is different in that one loss was against a divisional opponent seeking revenge in the Chargers and another was facing the Steelers when they were off a bye week. Fuming from a four-game losing streak, and especially last week’s humiliating loss to the Chargers, the Broncos get a more vulnerable opponent tonight in the Giants.
Take the points with Denver and consider throwing a few extra bucks on the money line to pay for some gravy on the turkey tonight.
Late Night NFL 11/26
Reply With Quote