DALLAS COWBOYS --- Were you a little shocked when this line came out at 13 1/2? I gotta admit, I was too. But that's why Vegas is a billion dollar industry... because they have professionals setting these lines so incredibly tight that it's nearly impossible for them not to make money. After the way the Cowboys played the last two weeks combined with Oakland's miracle, come-from-behind win over Cincy last week (my 100-dime NFL underdog game of the year, by the way), I figured this number would be somewhere in the neighborhood of what the Packers/Lions line was. Boy was I wrong. But in all reality, I'm glad. I don't like it when a game seems too easy. If Dallas were favored by 10, it would seem like a gift, and Vegas doesn't hand out gifts.
This line looks nearly impossible for the Cowboys to cover, which gives me all the reason in the world to think I'm on the right side. Forget what happened last week vs. Washington's #1-rated pass defense. Forget what happened two weeks ago in Lambeau. And forget Oakland's win over the Eagles and Bengals (both at home). I want you to focus on these two teams, as a whole. Dallas' offense vs. Oakland's defense... especially their 30th-ranked run defense. I want you to imagine Marion Barber and Felix Jones running for 6, 7, and 8 yards per carry. Oakland, who might be without Pro Bowl DE Richard Seymour, simply can't stop the run. Just ask Bernard Scott, the rookie RB from Cincinnati. Now imagine Dallas' defense... a defense that allowed just 6 points to Washington, 17 to Green Bay (though 14 points were set up deep in Dallas territory by turnovers), and 16 to Philadelphia, vs. the Oakland offense. Oakland's offense averages just 10 PPG... FOR THE SEASON.
Bruce Gradkowski did a serviceable job last week of leading his team on the game-tying drive, but let's be honest... he's not Rich Gannon. He's not even Terry Gannon. And now he starts his first road game in a very loud stadium on a surface the Raiders aren't familiar with. In fact, just once this year have the Raiders played on the "fake stuff"... the other game resulted in a 44-7 loss to the NY Giants in the Meadowlands. I'm expecting something similar today. Maybe the Cowboys don't reach 44, but the Raiders won't score more than 10-13 points, meaning we only need between 24 and 28 points to get the cover. No problem. Dallas averages 27 PPG at home while the Raiders allow 27 PPG on the road... so I think it's safe to say the Cowboys are going to push the 27-point plateau. And last I checked, the Cowboys love to play on Turkey Day. Not only do they have a winning record on this great holiday, they've absolutely rolled their last three opponents by a combined 106-22 score. They pounded the Bucs 38-10 back in 2006, the Jets 34-3 in 2007, and the Seahawks 34-9 last year. Notice the pattern? Over 30 points in each of their last three Thanksgiving Day games, while holding their opponents to 10 points or less. Do you see any differences in today's opponent and the last three results? I don't. Cowboys roll.
3-TEAM, 10-POINT TEASER (GREEN BAY, DENVER, TEXAS A&M) --- Let's have a little fun with a holiday three-team teaser. We're betting the Packers down to near a pick 'em, and it's absolutely crazy to think they won't beat the Lions SU. They have so much more to play for than Detroit right now and they appear much healthier... at least on the offensive side of the ball. QB Matthew Stafford won't play after separating his left shoulder in last week's game while WR Calvin Johnson is going to be a game-time decision. That's pretty much the entire offense, other than a few decent runs from RB Kevin Smith. True, Green Bay does have a few dings and bruises on the defensive side, but I'm not sure it's going to matter who plays against this depleted offense.
Denver is simply getting too many points when you tease them up to +16 as I just absolutely do not see them losing another home game by double digits. Pittsburgh and San Diego have been the last two teams to come to Denver and absolutely pummel them... and it's simply not going to happen again. These guys didn't start the season 6-0 for nothing. They still have a lot of talent and heart, and a defensive leader in Brian Dawkins who simply won't let them come out flat again. This game is the season for Denver. If they lose, they are skating on thin ice to even be considered as a viable Wild Card option... because Kansas City isn't beating San Diego this weekend and Denver needs to hold on with every inch of their lives to stay within a game of the Chargers. Denver can run the ball better than you might think, so they really don't need a 100% healthy Kyle Orton. All I'm asking is for them to keep this thing close with a very shaky defense to give us part II of our 3-team teaser.
And finally, the college football Rivalry game between Texas and Texas A&M. Always tend to lean towards the home underdog in big-time rivalry games, especially when we can tease them up and get them at something like +31. Though I realize Texas is clearly the superior team, there's two reasons I think the Aggies can keep it close. First, the home field advantage at Kyle Field is unlike many other stadiums in America. When the Aggie fans get going, the place literally shakes. It's going to be tough for Colt McCoy to hear the plays being called in, and being a night game, it's going to give the Aggie faithful a full day to get full on turkey and booze. They'll be nice and sauced by the time the game kicks off, adding even more rowdy noise to an already loud venue. Texas has dropped the last two games ATS when visiting College Station, including a SU loss back in 2007. The Ags are 5-1 SU at home and 4-1-1 ATS in their six games played there this season. Secondly, Texas A&M clearly has the offense to keep this game in "track meet" mode. QB Jerrod Johnson actually has better numbers than Colt McCoy as he's tossed 24 TD passes as opposed to just 5 INTs. McCoy has 23 TD passes and 9 INTs. Though their defense is somewhat of a joke, the Texas A&M offense can both run and throw rather effectively, and knowing we have 31 points to play with, I'm very comfortable backing the home team playing for pride and a somewhat decent bowl game. Aggies lose, but keep it within 31.
Craig Davis 11/26
Reply With Quote