Bets for Thursday, November 26
Originally Updated 11/25 5:00 PM ET
# OF PLAYS = 3 (16% BANKROLL RISK)


GREEN BAY -10 (RISK 6%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 5:00 PM ET on WEDNESDAY, 11/25.

LINE NOTE: Buy the 1/2 point to get this down to 10 points. If your book is offering 11.5, then buy down to +11. Bottom line, just get off the hook in any case. There are still several books out there with 10.5 and 11, so please shop for best value.

Look, nothing spells Thanksgiving like digging into some fresh bird and betting against the worst team in NFL History. The Lions have been a pleasure to bet against on Thanksgiving and we expect nothing short of a blowout again this holiday season.

First off, the Lions gunslinger Matthew Stafford is listed as doubtful in this game after he injured his throwing shoulder in the Cleveland game. Typically a QB switch this late in the season could be an opportunity for a losing team to rally behind a new guy, however considering the Lions just won against the Browns with Stafford throwing 5 TD's, we believe this will ensure a letdown in the locker room, especially with Culpepper filling in, a QB that has played in all of 3 games this season.

Green Bay is in a three-way tie with the Giants and Eagles for the lead in the NFC wild-card hunt and are coming off a 30-24 win over San Francisco last week. That constitutes this as a MUST WIN for the Pack knowing the Giants step on the field in the nightcap to play a reeling Denver squad that has the wheels falling off lately.

Green Bay disposed the Lions rather easily earlier this season to the tune of 26-0 and we see no reason why a similar outcome is not in the cards for Thursday. You should also know Stafford was out in that game as well. The outcome? Culpepper and Drew Stanton combined for only 105 passing yards and three interceptions. Why would this game be much different?

Lay the points and buy that hook to get it off the 1/2, don't ever get beat by the hook.

Packers by 14.



DALLAS -13.5 (RISK 5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 5:00 PM ET on WEDNESDAY, 11/25.

RATING NOTE: If Romo can't go in this one, please downgrade to a 2.5% wager. He is listed as questionable right now, but the injury report should be updated on Thursday morning at the latest.

Let's be honest, last week the Raiders were very lucky to beat the Bengals and needed two fourth quarter fumbles to get the win. While we were fully on the Raiders last week, it was a situational opportunity we could not pass up. Just like on Thursday, we can't pass up on Dallas.

The Cowboys love to play in this game on Thanksgiving, most importantly Romo gets up for this game every year. And as we all know, when Romo is on, Dallas is on, and they typically win big over inferior opponents. Since Romo took over at QB for America's team, they have played outstanding on Thanksgiving day posting wins of 28, 10, and 25 points the last 3 seasons. The Cowboys are always to excited to play in this game as America's team and it shows in the results. The Raiders meanwhile carry the burden of traveling into a different time zone away from family and friends on the holiday to play against one of the strongest teams in the NFL. Needless to say, the motivational aspect for the Raiders is a dooming one. If Dallas gets up by more than 10 points early in this game as we expect, the rout is going to be on as Romo will not pull back at all in this game.

Dallas owns a one-game lead over both the Giants and Eagles for the lead in the NFC East and this also classifies as a MUST WIN game considering Green Bay has an easy matchup with the Lions, and the Giants over the Broncos in the night game. No letdown or letup here for the Cowboys, lay the points.

Cowboys by 20.



NEW YORK GIANTS -6 (RISK 5%) >>View Live NFL Odds
This play was originally posted @ 5:00 PM ET on WEDNESDAY, 11/25.

Are you putting your money on Kyle Orton or Eli Manning in this game??

As you see were all about the favorites this Thanksgiving. Bottom line, we don't see any value in taking any of these underdogs on Thursday. Denver is finally showing their true colors in this half of the season. The last 3 weeks the Broncos are 0-4 SU/ATS and will be 0-5 on all accounts at the end of this one.

The problem for Denver is lack of a competitive offense, and it all starts at the QB position. Kyle Orton is who we thought he was. All was fine through the first half of the season when Denver was getting by on fluke plays and big defensive turnovers. After the bye week, they haven't been so lucky and it's caught up with them against some of the NFL's top passers. Last week it was Rivers and this week in walks Eli Manning off a SU win against the Falcons. Manning has completed 60.5 percent of his passes for 2,454 yards with an 18/9 TD-INT ratio. For us, we see much more value on the side with the proven reliable QB, versus one that's been in a career slump. Folks, Kyle Orton is who we thought he was.

The Giants are an incredible 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games and we fully expect another road cover on Thanksgiving night. As we mentioned above, the NFC East is in a very tight race right now, so when both Dallas and Green Bay win as expected in the early Thursday games, this will put the Giants in a MUST WIN situation for the nightcap. That means a lot of Eli Manning and if the Giants get a lead of more than a TD in this game, consider it done. The Broncos ARE NOT built to play catchup and this is exactly what they will have to do.

Look for more bad news in Denver as this ship is sinking fast and will continue to do so until they get a viable long term option at QB.

Giants by 14.