THE MAX


@Denver (+6½) over New York Giants
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
There isn't a game on this week's schedule that
features two teams that have hit the skids
harder. After winning their first five and
covering four games the G-Men have dropped
the cash five times in a row and lost four of
those games. First year HC Josh Daniels looked
like a chip off the Belichick block in winning
and covering their first six and have now lost
and failed to cover in each of their last four
games.
That last loss was a 32-3 stinker at the hands
of the team that passed them for the lead in
the AFC West: San Diego. Chris Simms started
at QB in place of Kyle Orton. Orton had not
practiced all week due to a swollen ankle.
Simms looked lost and was pulled in favor of
Orton after the Bolts went out in front 13-0.
Orton played reasonably well and after the
game said he had no setbacks despite a scary
hit on his injured leg from Merriman. He
promised he would be able to practice this
week and start Thursday night against the
Giants.
The NFC East is a logjam; Dallas and Philly and the
Gothamites are all within a game of each other in
the standings. That congestion triggers a negative
55-95 ATS system against New York. This play is 13-
20 ATS out of sample, including winning plays last
Sunday against Jacksonville and these same Giants.
If you read this space last week you might
remember an "anti-elite" system that I used
successfully against Pittsburgh in their loss to
Kansas City. The same system pops again this week
against the Giants. Its record is now 120-182 ATS
and is now 0-4 in 2009.
The Broncos have not hosted a Turkey Day game in
46 years. The football-mad Denver populace may
not have warmed to the idea; as of Sunday night
there were still tickets available. But this is still one
of the strongest home fields in the game. Since
1983 the Broncos are 33-11 ATS as a home dog or
favorite up to -2.5, including 2-1 this season. If Kyle
Orton is ruled out of the game I'll have to reassess
this selection, but for now I'll play on Denver's
strong history on home turf. Take the points.
Denver by 1